Recession/Depression Risk Assumptions - Weekly Blog # 916

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Recession/Depression Risk Assumptions

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

 Future Probabilities

One intelligent betting task at the New York racetracks, where I learned basic analysis, was to guess the rough size of the gap between the betting pool odds and the probabilities. Only if the self-assessed probabilities were significantly larger than the crowd-determined payment odds, was it a sound wager. I try to apply the same approach to investing in stocks around the world. The easy part is determining the payment odds, which are based on two factors. The popularity shown in the market and guessing the quality of the current stock bulls, which is much more difficult. In general, more retail buying equals lower quality. This is not to equate brains with capital, but the amount of research done. There is an inverse correlation between the amount of media pundit space devoted to an investment and the probability of them being correct. That is not to say the pundits are dumb, they are limited by space and time and that limits their ability to handle complexity.

 

Determining probabilities often rests on the number of separate supporting elements. This is difficult because unpopular views normally have fewer supporting elements and are more complex. (If this happens then that will happen or at least improve the possibility of it happening.)

 

I have found that a search of history is useful in searching for probabilities. As there are no axiomatic rules, sometimes something will happen and sometimes it will not. The trick is to try to understand what caused the different outcomes. In dealing with history, we are lucky to have both written and geological records from around the world. From those records it is apparent there are similarities in what drives many critical trends, no matter the place or time-period.

 

Causes of Recessions

No one wishes for a recession, although we should expect one or at least the possibility of one. When a recession does occur, it is generally a surprise, and most are unprepared for it. In the beginning most don’t recognize they are experiencing a period of decreasing ability to make purchases and the ability to promptly pay debts. Hopefully, the economic community recognizes it soon after the nadir of the recession. The academic community only declares “official” notice of a recession after full recovery of lost resources.

 

In every recession I have studied, the critical realization of being in a recession occurs when the level of current earnings makes it difficult or temporarily impossible to repay what is owed on time. The squeeze on repayment is caused by an overly optimistic belief in current earnings and the absence of sufficient reserves. These conditions in turn are caused by imprudent personal, business, non-profit, and government decisions. Other causes are sloppy executions, which cause incomplete and wrong actions. Greed also drives actions without regard to consequences. There also appears to be an increase in fraud during a recession.

 

Causes of a Depression

Depressions are relatively few but longer lasting. For the most part they are caused by attempts to structurally pull the economy out of a recession. Typically, the leader of the government sees that the problems facing society are structural and immediately seeks to fix the problem.

 

In the US we have had four activist presidents who wanted to structurally change how we operate. These are Andrew Jackson, Thedore and Franklin Roosevelt, plus the current occupant of the White House. These leaders attempted to change many things but ran into opposition from the minority who used the Constitution and courts to block the changes. In addition, their actions created other problems for the country and globally after their terms.

 

Curren t Conditions

The following elements suggest there are problems ahead. My lens is primarily fixed on market analysis, not economic analysis. (This is due to belief that the market is primarily focused on the perception of future markets and not how past economic data impacts it.)

• For the past 2 weeks there have been more declining than rising stock prices on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
• For the last two weeks, the AAII sample survey shows only 32.6% and 31.6% bearish for the next 6 months.
• Tech stocks listed globally fell last week.
• Only 25% of weekly prices reported in the Saturday Wall Street Journal rose, the remaining 75% declined.
• Last week through Thursday, my old firm reported that only three mutual fund peer groups out of 104 competitive leagues showed average gains - Dedicated Short +7.80%, Health/Biotech +0.98%, and Indian Regional +0.55%.

 

My Working Wager

Between now and next Presidential election, the odds on a recession are 60%, with the odds of a depression before 2035 at 50%. (Remember the market rises about 80% of the time.)

 

Your thoughts, please.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Risks Are Rising Thru the Clouds - Weekly Blog # 915

Mike Lipper's Blog: The Inevitable Recession - Weekly Blog # 914

Mike Lipper's Blog: Biggest Investment Hurdle: Complexity - Weekly Blog # 913

 

 

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

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Risks Are Rising Thru the Clouds - Weekly Blog # 915

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Risks Are Rising Thru the Clouds

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Overview

There does not appear to be a clear unified picture of the near-term future for the next couple of years. In examining a number of separate and distinct elements, each with their own limited cloudy outlook, I see a growing level of disconnected risks. Hopefully our intelligent subscribers can sense a positive future and share it.

 

Topics of Concern (In no meaningful order)

• The price of gold and crypto elements are rising, with the exchange value of the dollar falling more than 10% earlier this year. For centuries the single greatest attraction of gold was at the coin level, with the ability to bribe one’s exit from one country into another. Today, I am unaware that this is a major demand contributor. The Central banks appear to be the largest buyer, replacing some of the depreciating value of their large dollar holdings. While that might serve a few countries well, there is not enough gold in the world to fill all needs at any reasonable multiplier of current gold prices. Crypto also seems to be potentially price limited. At the moment I do not see any move by major countries to be a substitute replacement for the dollar.
• While the Chinese currency is now the third most used currency for world trade, I do not see any willingness of that government to use its currency for anything beyond its own trading. They do not want their currency to trade freely and absorb the turmoil of other countries.
• I do not see crypto as an alternative in size, particularly if it is US dollar based. Both gold and crypto don’t have a large industrial use, unlike silver to some degree.
• One possible substitute for the dollar is copper, and possibly some other base metals. One new problem for Dr. Copper is the expected increase in use by “AI”. It is interesting to note that Base Materials (Metals) were the second best performing mutual fund category in the current week (+4.44% vs -2.70% for the worst fund category Global Science & Tech.)  It may be worth noting that the ECRI industrial price index went to 115.50 from 114.80 the prior week, even though it does not normally move much.
• A significant number of casualty insurance companies have invested in private debt vehicles with limited liquidity.
• The weekly 6-month forward looking AAII sample survey found only 31.6% bullish and 49.1% bearish compared to three weeks prior, where the readings were 44.05% bullish and 36.9% bearish.
• In the current week there were more decliners than gainers on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
• A number of economists have noted that the top 10% of the population, often over 75 years old, own 50% of US wealth. The bottom one third, those who are 35 years old or younger, own 10%. (This may well explain the results of the only two governor elections this year.) This formation is being called “K shaped”.

 

I appeal to our readers to contribute your good thinking regarding the importance of these elements and to let me know how it affects your view on the global stock and money markets. 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: The Inevitable Recession - Weekly Blog # 914

Mike Lipper's Blog: Biggest Investment Hurdle: Complexity - Weekly Blog # 913

Mike Lipper's Blog: Signals of Change in Historic Patterns - Weekly Blog # 912

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

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Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

The Inevitable Recession - Weekly Blog # 914

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

The Inevitable Recession

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Loses Are Needed

Securities analysts, portfolio managers, investors, politicians, and others, need the fear and reality of recessions. Both written and geological history record meaningful and painful declines. Since they happen with some regularity there must be a repetitive set of reasons, with the lure of a gain sucking us into overexpansion and other error-making decisions.

 

Humans evolved from hunters and/or gathers, who periodically generated supplies beyond their immediate need, beyond a limited reserve for emergencies. When they gathered too much, costs grew and quality suffered. In the financial world we hoard and or borrow too much in the way of financial assets. This became increasingly clear as conditions changed.

 

These adverse conditions are clear in recorded history, in Babylon, China, and other places. Thus, the history of weather, business, and political cycles were written, becoming critical drivers of financial markets.

 

The Rise of Financial Analysis

Trading markets began soon after communities were established. Over time, it became clear that some successful traders achieved periodic, large returns on their use of trading capital. A number of these people gained reputations as good traders and found other people who recognized they did not have the same skills, contacts, and capital. These traders could borrow money at attractive rates and could charge fees to manage portfolios for selected outsiders. A number of these traders evolved into investment banks, who had both skilled traders and statisticians, some of whom became analysts.

 

US and UK Governments vs. Fraud

When markets fall, investors don't blame themselves for the losses they sustain. They claim fraud on the part of the "system", which includes issuers, exchanges, underwriters, and salespeople. Generally, the public investor does not understand business and financial cycles or chooses to forget the warnings that were given before they placed purchase orders. To protect the "public", disclosure and other laws were passed. While no law or regulation can prevent bad judgement, disclosures can ensure investors receive what is required to be transmitted to them. Unfortunately, accounting and legal disclosures use terms that the public does not understand.

 

As a result of large losses sustained by US public investors in the 1930s, there were seven reform laws passed, including the Securities & Exchange Act and a similar set of regulations in the UK.

 

The Development of Securities Analysis

While there were numerous books written about investing prior to the 1929 crash, they were not read by many investors. In the early 1930s Benjamin Graham and David Dodd wrote a Securities Analysis textbook for a Columbia University course. (Ben was a portfolio manager and Dave Dodd was a professor, who was still teaching in the late 1950s when I took the course from him.) Their main lesson was how to think about investing in securities while minimizing losing money. The course was taught as a supplement to a number of accounting and business law courses. They largely used the reconstruction of financial statements to assist patient investors. (While useful in minimizing investment losses, creating language to allow people to understand the thinking of others and the politics of an industry or client would have been more valuable.)

 

Recession Analysis

I believe most of those in the market are assessing the probability of an oncoming recession by focusing on published economic data. The stock market is focused on the future, not the past, and in that way it’s ahead of the economics releases. For example, the election results of last Tuesday suggest Louis XIV’s building of Versailles, even though no one else is saying it. The King was always at war, usually with England, and ran up big debts. He destroyed the local power of the nobility and insisted they spend most of their time attending to him in the Palace. (Is the reaction to larger than expected Democratic margins of victory in New Jersey and Virginia and the destruction of part of the White House for a big ballroom similar to what Louis XIV set in motion before the French Revolution and Napolean?)

 

Other market indicators last week included decliners on both the NYSE and NASDAQ being larger than gainers, with the NASDAQ losing twice as much as the gainers. NASDAQ's volume over the last year increased 38.21% vs the NYSE volume gaining 22.98%. (One of the clues to identifying a peak and then a decline is a decline in "quality", which is better evidenced on the balance sheet than through earnings.)

 

On Friday, the best performing mutual fund categories in rank order were Currency funds, Precious Metals Funds, Real Estate Funds, Natural Resource Funds, and Materials Producers. All are not heavily held by funds and other institutional holders. On a year-to-date basis, the only fund categories that beat the S&P 500 Funds Index category were Science & Tech, Precious Metals, Global Science & Tech, and Large-Cap Growth. (There is considerable overlap in the names in their portfolios). Barron's weekly list of foreign market indices showed 5 Asian markets up, with only 1 rising in Europe.

 

Identifying the date when a recession begins is officially only determined after it ends. As a practical matter you might use the purchasing managers' index, which has been in contraction for the last 8 months and is now showing only 42.3% rising. While it is foolish- to name both a market direction and a date, it may be useful to be aware that the market generally rises at least 80% of the time. Considering the 5-year average length of time CEOs remain in their chair, it suggests a market decline once every five years, which somewhat parallels the 4-year length of a US President's term. (I don't know how to adjust the number for the current President but possibly averaging all Presidents it may be around five years.)

 

Working Conclusion:

The odds of a recession before the next Presidential election is probably 67%, with a depression at 50%. (The latter would require some mismanagement during the recession to raise the odds of a depression above 50%.)

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Biggest Investment Hurdle: Complexity - Weekly Blog # 913

Mike Lipper's Blog: Signals of Change in Historic Patterns - Weekly Blog # 912

Mike Lipper's Blog: Where Are US Stock Prices Going? - Weekly Blog # 911

 

 

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

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Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Biggest Investment Hurdle: Complexity - Weekly Blog # 913

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Biggest Investment Hurdle: Complexity

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

 

First Priority

An investment priority should be logging changes to your investment policies, although most investors do not maintain such records. To paraphrase the late and great Charlie Munger said that Warren Buffett was a learning machine. His point was, Warren benefited from the losses he sustained. He had an investment history of making very few repeated mistakes.

 

Most profitable investors also make relatively few mistakes, in part due to most mistakes forfeiting more opportunities than money. To avoid future mistakes, it would be helpful to have an insightful roster of mistakes. The real painful mistakes are repeaters.

 

Tools of Repeating Errors

Many repeating errors of judgement rely on an automatic mathematical response. For example, if “x” happens then do “y”. This is a non-thinking action. It does not adjust for changes in critical conditions that might impact the current situation.

 

On a very basic level, buying is different than selling. Investment buying is often based on market prices being wrong but are likely to change soon. The seller on the other hand believes in the relative attractiveness of a security that will shortly decline in price. In both cases the investor believes that he/she is ahead of the bulk of the investment market. These are the actions of someone who wants to be among the leaders.  This is in direct conflict with successful investors who prefer to be lonely and contrary to the crowd.

 

Understanding Complexity

Berkshire Hathaway (*) developed a system of categorizing new investment information into three buckets, “yes, no, too hard”. Berkshire’s advantage was structured on the combined experience of the late Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett. This experience included knowledge of over 60 different companies they owned and the knowledge of various securities they previously owned or looked at for more than 100 years combined. Where most others saw complexity, they saw investment opportunity.

(* Berkshire Hathaway shares are owned in client and personal accounts.)

 

Can’t Avoid Complexity

In the modern global world, one cannot avoid complexity. However, with some hard work and experience you can reorder many elements into positives, negatives, and judgements to be determined. With this structure one can put odds on each critical item, leading to a preponderance of positives or negatives worthy of action.

 

An example of factors that surfaced this week in the media are shown below:

• Wall Street Journal Headline “Foreign Stocks outperform S&P…”. This could cause many US accounts to add foreign stocks and funds. However, the largest collection of stocks that Americans buy are multinational stocks listed overseas. In many cases the largest portion of these portfolios are invested in US operations, which is a negative if your purpose is to participate in European and Asian growth. (The same could be said about US listed multinationals with significant sales abroad. This includes Coca Cola, a large holding of Berkshire. The same could be said about Apple.)
• The Federal Reserve is concerned about a bifurcated economy consisting of technology and older companies. Both sides have significant foreign sales.
• This may be the wrong time for the proposed cut in bank supervision. Both banks and non-bank financials are increasing loans to lower-quality companies.
• While some believe oil is being priced attractively, natural gas prices are even more attractive. Also, Copper has historically performed better than gold.
• The “Buffett Premium” is disappearing just as insurance driven earnings are very strong.
• Cash in portfolios should be used in the short term, either as a basket to buy favored stocks or to reduce exposure to over-capitalized companies and increase return on equity.
• In latest week there were more declining stocks than rising stocks.

 

Each of the mentioned items could be attractive buy or sell opportunities, depending on one’s view.

 

What do you think?

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

 

Mike Lipper's Blog: Signals of Change in Historic Patterns - Weekly Blog # 912

Mike Lipper's Blog: Where Are US Stock Prices Going? - Weekly Blog # 911

Mike Lipper's Blog: A Good Time to Sell? - Weekly Blog # 910

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

 

Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.