Mike Lipper's Blog: Signals of Change in Historic Patterns

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Signals of Change in Historic Patterns

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Past Trends May Not Predict Future

There are times when using an old playbook is dangerous because the game has changed.

Inputs of Change

China overtook the US as Germany’s largest trading partner (fear of US tariffs?).
Meta cuts 600 jobs in their AI division.
Market rally is being led by low quality.
Consumer sentiment fell to 53.6 from 55.1 the prior month
Home ownership 40% more costly than renting. Will it change?

Other structural questions:

Is political power out of balance? IBES estimates 3rd quarter eps to be 10.4% and net income 8.8%, which to use?
Will later marriages and down-sizing earlier reduce demand for homes?
Will China follow the US in reducing competition through merger or bankruptcy? (autos/paints/investment and commercial banks/private capital).

Will we change schooling into education of life and business skills to help solve our problems.

Disclosure:

My personal portfolio of domestic and international securities assumes some of the answers to these questions. I could be wrong.

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

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