Switching Prime Focus - Weekly Blog # 739

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Switching Prime Focus

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Functions of Analysts & Portfolio Managers

Many analysts who publish their work focus on just reported results, and to a minor extent estimates of the next to be reported results.

As a contrarian thinker, I am used to being lonely in examining longer-term results. Consequently, I accept that my views may well be very different than what occurs.

Portfolio managers should be focused on expected prices at termination of time periods critical to the account. That is the easer part of the job. The more difficult task is the construction of a portfolio to accomplish the investor’s goals within given time periods.

Both analysts and portfolio managers will only be right some of the time. The critical task is to limit the overall damage to the portfolio and achieve the best delivery for the investor.

Why Switching Now?

In almost all sports, as in life, the best results come from the appropriate combination of anticipatory aggressive and conservative moves.

Coming off a successful effort to call last’s week equity performance, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) generated an 800-point gain on Friday. News reports and commentaries have been more mixed than when I started to mention my more bearish comments over a year ago. With the NASDAQ in a bear market and both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in a correction, I should question my own views. (The S&P 500 was temporarily in bear market territory)

Bearish Comments

Former Democratic US Treasurer Larry Summers said, “We need unemployment above 5% to contain inflation for five years, 7.5% for two years, or 10% for one year.”

Corporations and individuals choose to move for a number of economic reasons, including the new location being better for their relocated and new employees. Citadel is moving its headquarters from Chicago to Miami. Both Chevron and Goldman Sachs are moving major portions of their office staff from crime infested, high tax states, to Texas. 

Copper prices have reached a 15-month low. A significant development due to its use in many manufactured products and economists calling it an economic predictor.

The prices paid for the “free lunch” SNAP program has risen 23% in a year. I don’t know how much of this is due to the war in Ukraine, but it does not seem this tragedy is going to get less expensive or end quickly.

Political Lessons

Almost all economic cycles are caused by humans. Among the easiest to spot and perhaps correct are those made by politicians in power from both major political parties.

Perhaps the single biggest problem created results from elected politicians turning over issues to non-elected administrators, which they do because they don’t have sufficient votes to pass them. 

For example, this weekend the decision on abortion was punted. Elected politicians in Washington, recognizing this topic was likely to split the population, decided to let the states decide. On Friday it went through to the Supreme Court, because in eyes of some, the local laws were in conflict with the US Constitution. We need to remember that the Supreme Court makes judgements based on law and legal precedent, not moral judgement. 

The mistake politicians in Congress made for a period of at least twenty years was asking candidates for their opinion rather than crafting a national law addressing the problem.

This is their common mistake, they turned to unelected and largely untrained administrators to solve a social problem. We see this approach being used for issues before the SEC, FTC, Treasury, State Department, Agriculture, Labor, Interior etc. (In my opinion, it is just a matter of time before various administrative decisions are struck down due to exceeding their legal mandate to act without passed legislation.)

One reason politicians act is polling, although polling has proven to be quite inaccurate in close elections. Polls are also conducted by low-cost brief phone calls to those willing to venture opinions to structured questions. 

In the days when I was interested in polling, I found how I asked the question influenced the answer. This is not an unusual view. It is no wonder a growing percentage of people called do not wish to answer the questions. These “no answers” are not tabulated or properly investigated.

Some Incomplete Conclusions

While I did not recognize it at the time, I took a graduate business school course entitled “Security Analysis” as an undergraduate at Columbia. The Professor was David Dodd, with the adjunct professor Benjamin Graham writing the first academically popular book on the subject. 

This is the course and book which provided the foundation for what has been called “value investing”. There were three problems in the way it was taught. 

1. It was based on the investment experience in the 1930s that made both Graham and Dodd wealthy.
2. Perhaps because of the constraints of a one-hour class, we were instructed to disregard inventories in our valuation and the recalculation of book value when restructuring balance sheets. This was a good first cut, but some finished product inventory had value. Also, debts could and were renegotiated to lower amounts. 
3. The third set of missing elements were the items not on the balance sheet. For example, long-term leases on valuable locations, railroad right of ways, new valuable products under development, immature customer relationships, physical and other location advantages.

In my discussion with the good professor, he discarded my questions related to growth. What I now realize is that he was essentially teaching a course on the use of accounting statements for investing. These are necessary, but insufficient.

Today, a price/book value or tangible value is a paper cover of a book, not the book itself. Far too many investment reports state the relationship without detailed analysis.

Positives

The largest positive is that we have probably been in a recession for all of 2022, and possibly longer. Months later, NERA will identify when the official beginnings of the recession. Regardless, time spent on the way down eats into the time in recession, which on average lasts 32.5 months or a median of 27.1 months. 

The JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index fell -0.44% this week because port delays got shorter and container rental prices dropped.

Both biotech/pharma and electronic technology are on the verge of exciting new products. For example, Apple’s AR headsets could open a new stream of products. (Apple is owned in personal accounts.)

Due to China launching its fourth super-carrier, defense procurement spending will eventually rise.

What to Look For?

I don’t know yet, but these are some of the things I am looking for:

• Long-term survival skills. This means cutting some things to improve efficiency, but not a critical new product or service.
• Investing in the right client relationships
• Developing the right international friends
• Securing the right financial relationships.

Final Thought

Is there a timing connection between the extreme AAII bearish reading of 59.3% and the recognition we are in a recession?

Please share your thoughts for the next great investment idea.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/06/are-markets-getting-too-far-ahead.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/06/pick-investment-period-strategy-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/06/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings-how.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2022

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

On The Way To The Bottom? - Weekly Blog # 730

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

On The Way To The Bottom?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

When amid a campaign with no predetermined finish, it is difficult to guess both the timing and the result. We are in that position today and the best we can do is guess. Generally, there are two approaches to guessing. The first is to evaluate past contests and the second is to focus on current conditions. I will briefly do both, including two surprising differences.

History

Each market and/or economic decline is different. Pundits use labels for stock markets, such as market phase, correction, and bear market. Economic declines are divided into cyclical and structural. None are tight descriptions, but are somewhat useful in describing what has happened, with some predictive value.

Stock Market Declines

A fall of 20% from a former peak is called a bear market, a decline of 10% is labeled a correction, and a smaller decline is called a market phase. The problem today is the three popular US stock market indices can each be labeled with a different name:

DJIA               -8.82%  =  Market Phase

S&P 500           -12.28%  =  Correction

NASDAQ Composite  -25.06%  =  Bear Market

The majority of the public and therefore politicians get their brief market news based largely on the DJIA. Securities distributors and thin staffed financial institutions use the SPX, while professional traders pay attention to the NASDAQ. No wonder there is confusion concerning the current state of the market and to some extent where it may go. Almost by definition, the greater the decline the sooner a bottom is reached. Long-term subscribers know that I often find the NASDAQ composite a better market predictor than the others two measures. The NASDAQ led both on the way up and down. The reason for this is the junior index having proportionally less passive (index) investors making specific stock judgements. 

If you accept this analysis, then we have reached the level beginning a bottom, as most bottoms occur after a 25% decline. Consequently, followers of the NASDAQ can start to believe the bottom for this market is in range. This view is backed up by the level of transactions on the NYSE and NASDAQ, plus the number of new lows for the week ended Friday. On a year-to-date volume basis, the NYSE is +6.98% and the NASDAQ -6.10%. Last week the number of new lows on the NYSE was 649, versus 1023 on the NASDAQ. (In analyzing the NASDAQ, it is important to recognize that technology stocks were the leading sector, both rising and falling. (In the long-term future, I believe “tech” stocks will be among the leaders, but not necessarily the same names.)

Cyclical or Structural Economic Declines

Cyclical economic contractions are much more frequent than structural changes. Typically, cyclical contractions are caused by excessive money supply growth, which leads to too much borrowing and inflation. 

Symptoms 

We are currently experiencing those symptoms. The M2 measure of money supply growth is currently +13.21% on a year-to-year basis, which clearly includes what politicians call stimulus and I call political bribes. Not surprisingly, this has led to the JOC-ECRI growing +17.37% this year. (The good news is the index dropped 1.51% this week). Consequently, it is reasonable to speculate a recession is in our future.

The critical risk is political leaders transforming a cyclical downturn into a structural one, as they did globally in the 1930s. This is not a prediction, but as a trained US Marine I am always alert to a sneak attack and need to be aware of the risk. There are currently an unfortunate number of parallels with the 1930s. Despite a general economic expansion globally, there is a vocal minority that can be leveraged by politicians (Remember, I believe Mark Twain said the job of a politician is to find a parade and get in front of it). 

Current leadership is becoming more autocratic in several countries. Small regional wars have the potential to become global wars e.g., Ukraine>>>Black Sea >>>Asia Minor >>>>East vs West?.

The French Presidential election demonstrates much of the population votes against. This election conforms to the view that there are almost no popular governments, just more popular than the opposition. This in turn makes long term plans difficult, which in turn also makes investment judgements difficult.

Question: What do you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/short-long-term-thoughts-weekly-blog-729.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-this-great-investment-era-ending.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/wwiii-slightly-delayed-bear-market.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Time to Think Long-Term - Weekly Blog # 692

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Time to Think Long-Term

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Dull Can Be Difficult

As perpetual investors, we are like military or golf warriors. When Marines are deployed into temporary defensive positions where they are trained to constantly improve their defense against always expected attacks. Professional golfers or club level champions often spend considerable time on the driving range and putting greens. Thus, I view the current stock market environment as a good time to shift focus to long-term investing, the primary focus of this blog.

The Biggest Picture

Perhaps the biggest picture of all investable assets is our earth. Following the geographical slant, I suggest we start with the US based market, where we come to our first confusion of terms. In the US you can buy pure foreign companies through American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in dollars. Multinationals, which often grow faster and have better margins than pure domestic companies are also available. Pure domestic companies rarely exist in an economic sense, especially with the American consumer addicted to imports of food, clothing, cars, television sets, cell phones, oil, and many other products and services. Thus, we have become globalists whether we like it or not, creating a dichotomy for our politicians who are mostly lawyers. The politicians see the US as mostly bound by laws and regulations they created. They fail to appreciate that one appeal of these goods and services to consumers and investors is that they are not bound by the whims of politicians in DC or state capitals.

What is the Outlook for the “Governed” USA?

Both in terms of actuality and perceptions, there are negatives in assessing the long-term outlook, briefly listed as follows:

1. Militarily, the US is in geographical retreat from Asia, Europe and the Mid-East. Coupled with a declining budget for fighting expenditures, senior officers are being selected based on their political skills.
2. Homes and schools are producing unemployable students, lacking intellectual integrity, discipline, leadership, and physical skills.
3. We elect governments that prefer top-down, centralized, restrictive control, lacking in bottom-up experience.
4. The US is currently burdened by a lack of rigorous international leadership skills.

Offsetting the negatives are some positives for the US:

1. Around the world, people want to live and earn in the US.
2. Compared to other developed countries we have a strong geographic location.
3. We generally have abundant natural resources, which are becoming increasingly expensive to produce and get to market.
4. We have the richest consumer and commercial markets in the world.
5. We have the largest and deepest financial markets in the world, likely to become more expensive and restrictive in the future.

What Other Choices are There?

There are lots of attractive long-term investing and trading opportunities in other countries. However, in terms of geographical hedging against possible problems in the US, there appears to be only one large choice. Most other developed countries are export driven, with the US being their largest single market. If there are problems in the US, these countries will not be useful hedges in a domestic portfolio. 

One clue to this correlation with the US is the leading performing industries in their local markets. According to Standard & Poor’s, the two best performing industry groups are technology and materials in the stock markets of almost all the developed countries and many developing countries, including the Islamic countries. Hard to imagine a long-term situation where these local industries do well without a parallel move in the US.

This correlation is not accidental, the tie between the UK and US is an example. Wealthy people in the UK took part of their economic winnings from domestic sources and invested them in the US. Some of the early growth of The Financial Times and Reuters was based on their publication of US stock prices in the 19th century. In the early 20th century, my grandfather’s brokerage firm had a London office service their UK account’s needs for US transactions. Later in the century, both my brother’s brokerage firm and my fund analysis firm also had London offices. The appeal of servicing the needs of UK clients continues to this day.

One of the leading positions in our private financial services fund is Raymond James Financial (RJF). It announced it is acquiring the wealth management and brokerage firm Charles Stanley, a venerable firm founded in 1792. RJF plans to keep Charles Stanley wealth management separate from its own local wealth management activity. While the two offices will largely be using different securities and funds, I suspect they will become similar over time. In part because they will be using RJF’s superior technology adapted for the UK market.

The Only Choice as a Hedge?

The traditional choice as a hedge is one that goes up when the primary investment goes down. A more modern approach used by early hedge funds and other traders was a bet on different rates of growth, often labeled “pair trades”. The problem with that strategy was pair components moving more due to external forces than to the differences between the pairs.

Thus, as a global investor, like it or not the best hedge is China. This is not a happy choice, think of all the objections to investing in China. When you boil down these objections, they largely come down to one thing. They are not the US!!!

Absolutely true, but China is the second largest economy in the world and is growing much faster than the US or the developed world. This should not make us apologists for their perceived transgressions. The recent 50% or more fall in many shares is a demonstration of the evils of a “command economy”.  There is an interesting parallel between what their central government and Washington attacked; the power and scope of large monopolies, lose credit conditions outside the formal banking system, and privileged for profit education. The main difference between the number one and number two economies was that China moved faster and was more devastating.

I am not suggesting you buy individual Chinese stocks, bonds, or loans. What I am suggesting is you follow the late and great old data customer of our firm, Bill Berger. He called some of his investments “Chicken Bergers”. These were positions that participated in a trend but had more downside protection. In my case I am suggesting the use of regional mutual funds with analysts in the Asian region who have significant minority holdings in global portfolios. This is a good time to consider such a move as I suspect we will soon be entering a more intense higher volume period where it may be more difficult to think long-term.

Current Indicators of Change

I believe the structure of the market is in the process of changing, but it’s not yet clear as to direction. This could be a cause for concern and the following are “straws in the wind” as to future changes:

1.  Change in fixed income issuance over the past 12 months:

Investment Grade bonds    +68%

Leveraged Loans          +208%

Structured Finance       +203%

 2.  This week’s 6-month prediction in the AAII weekly sample survey shows a change of 6% “Bullish” and “Bearish” move, with Bullish positive and Bearish negative. Both were at 30% last week.

3.  Number of days to cover shorts: NYSE 2.9 vs NASDAQ 2.3

4.  The JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index had a weekly gain of 1%, substantially below its 12-month rate. 

Working Conclusion:

Changes are coming soon and the time to develop global hedges may be short.

Comments are solicited, as I am sure not every reader is in total agreement with this blog.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/07/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings_25.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/07/correcting-impression-and-gaining-some.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/07/sentiment-appears-to-be-changing-weekly.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Respecting the Opposition & Market - Weekly Bog # 675

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Respecting the Opposition & Market

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Competition Lessons

As a competitive fencer, I regularly fenced men who were better than me. For the most part they had longer arms and were probably better athletes, a real advantage in fencing. I was determined to score as many touches as possible to win matches. The first thing I had to learn was to respect my opponents’ skills and physical advantages. I thus developed what boxers call counterpunching moves. These mental attitudes followed me into the world of investing, where they are called contrarian.

Applications

I believe it would be extremely foolish as an American who served in the US Marine Corps to not identify China as a strong and growing opponent, one whose moves should be respected. Despite having fund investments in China for clients and myself, I am forced to acknowledge China currently having the most prudent central banker. Despite apparently coming out of COVID-19 first, it is retarding its growth by squeezing the non-bank financial providers, who are major providers of loans to the tertiary sectors of their slowing economy. The service sector and light manufacturers have recently grown faster than the rest of their economy but have little in the way of collateral available to be pledged. (Over the centuries there have been numerous Chinese commercial collapses.) As China’s economy has been a major importer of goods and services from the US and the rest of the world, a slowdown in China can create problems here and elsewhere. Unlike other countries attempting to fuel their recoveries, they are delaying going after credit growth outside the banking system. The authoritarian power structure is attempting to get ahead of a problem that has caused disruptions in the past.

A second application of the respect principle is to acknowledge the lessons of the stock market. The most consistent market lesson being the teaching of humility. Below are three historic examples of what may be its future progress:

1. A new bull market riding an economic expansion fueled by government spending.
2. A third term of Obama’s lack of progress.
3. A second coming of FDR’s elongation of an economic recession into a depression. 

I don’t know which path or combination of paths we will take, but I am prepared to be uncomfortable. Contrarian investing is uncomfortable and human beings take comfort in conformity. Contrarian investors must exercise patience, but as Saint Augustine said, “Patience is the companion of wisdom”, hopefully we have enough.

Current Confused Pictures

Hopefully, Positives

• A new generation of investors providing quick liquidity to the less liquid.
• Exchange Traded Products readily available to make directional bets.
• Equity Mutual Fund Holders redeem on average at 4.2 years.
• VIX readings dropping to 17.32 from 46.8 last March.

Perhaps, Negatives

• JOC-ECRI change in a year +88.47%
• Current performance of S&P 500 too high historically. Since 1926 it has averaged +10.3%. Do yearly returns need to decline below normal?

        % Change        Years

        72              1     

        20              2

        15              5

        12             10  

• Over the last year, 12 major currencies rose vs the US$ and 2 declined. Below are the top 2 currencies increasing vs the US$ and the two that declined.

     Australia   +24.4%      Korea       -2.3%

     Singapore   +23.0%      Hong Kong   -0.3% 

Interesting 12-month numbers for Standard Poor’s 500

             13.34%  Average S&P 500 Fund

             13.61%  Average of 30 largest S&P Funds

             13.91%  Gross performance of the stocks

The average large-cap core fund gained +12.53% and probably had 1-2% in cash, suggesting the superiority of passive investing comes from being fully invested, low turnover, and low fees. This could be a good model for all investors in funds or their own accounts.

Two Post-Mortems

While there were some typos in last week’s blog, it had two observations that proved to be germane. The first being Archegos, the family office that had their equity total return swaps liquidated to meet margin calls. We mentioned both Nomura and Credit Suisse had announced expected losses from margin transactions over the weekend. What I didn’t know, was that on Friday, if not before, Goldman Sachs (*) was aggressively liquidating the collateral supporting the Archegos account, where the market action in a number of  “thin” stocks was bothersome. Early trades in Asia were also quite heavy. Sometimes instincts moves faster than knowledge. 

(*) Goldman Sachs is a position in our private financial services fund.

Focusing on instinct, my smart wife Ruth commented to me that not only was the price of food going up at the Supermarket, but also the price of paper goods. This was borne out Monday when it was announced that the price of cardboard boxes went up. These two instances prove that investing is not only an art form but also an active-duty sport.

What do you think?  

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-biggest-risk-we-all-face-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/03/2-presidential-lessons-to-be.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/03/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Contra Messages - Weekly Blog # 664

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Contra Messages

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Megaphone Messages

This week is the inaugural of the President, where he’ll deliver his acceptance speech, supposedly on COVID-19. All too much of the media will focus exclusively on these activities. Others may label the speech as the first salvo of the new administration’s redistribution of wealth plans. The shame of the coverage is that there are a number of messages that will get no or little coverage but will impact investors. As a public service, I will briefly discuss a number of these messages that in some respect are contra to the “Happy Talk” many will hear during the week.

Quieter Messages

Short-Term

Job creation needs to adjust to the world that currently exits and will exist in the future, not those before the pandemic. The expected spending releases from the effective distribution and use of vaccines and therapeutics will do nothing to improve productivity, particularly in services jobs. Furthermore, the release won’t automatically lead to the capacity expansion needed to solve bottlenecks. Some of the Biden proposals create new tech jobs, but the entire tech sector only has 2% of the country’s jobs. 

Current and future inflation hurts lower income people who have fewer offsets than those who are wealthier. Government data on inflation does not capture rising prices or declines in quantity/quality at supermarkets and bodegas. This week saw a +2.28% increase in the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index, bringing the year over year increase to +28.76%. Perhaps a further indicator of the market’s expectation of inflation is the increase in the price of gold mining companies, while the current gold price remains relatively stable. 

In the first week of 2021 the average S&P 500 Index fund declined -0.20%, while the average US Diversified Equity Fund rose +0.85%. This brings the year-to-date results for index funds to +1.10% vs +3.95% for diversified stock funds and follows a full year when S&P 500 Index funds underperformed.

Longer-Term

Citigroup’s model of Panic and Euphoria one year ahead has turned negative on the outlook for stocks. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, is more afraid of Fintech activities from “Silicon Valley” and Walmart (*) than domestic banks. Banks are losing share in the financial market. The old regulatory regimes both in the US and elsewhere are not adequate for today’s and tomorrow’s markets.

(*) Held in personal or managed accounts

The bond market yield curve gets steeper each week, suggesting long rates will rise way past 2%. The higher fixed income interest rates go, the more competitive they become with stock prices.

Is 2021 the beginning of the “Last Hurrah” for the two US political parties? In the US and UK, both main parties have evolved historically and in some cases have changed names. With both the Democrat and Republican parties internally split, party discipline is likely to be ruptured. While the public believes internal battles are driven by major policy differences, as they say in golf “drive for show, but putt for dough”. The three critical battles will be on the role of seniority, the value of the right experience, and the role/power of major contributors.

What to Do?

Expect volatility to increase. The NASDAQ price movements may be more insightful than either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500, and certainly more than the Russell indices. 

Current prices are important, but less important than long-term future prices. This may be a reason for most investors, individual or institutions, to have the bulk of their money invested for the long-term.

For those with an emotional or psychological need to follow prices, should adopt a trading philosophy focusing primarily on what other market participants are doing. I find investors that on average do poorly are better predictors than those who do reasonably well.

I believe almost all of us are impacted by events and trends beyond our borders. Those marginally investing internationally should primarily invest to hedge their domestic investments, hoping their foreign investments do less well than their domestic holdings. Those investing above 20% of their wealth beyond their borders should be looking for opportunistic investments they cannot find domestically, both in terms of price and quality. Historically, after someone gains wealth they begin investing against their local government, believing that if things go well in their home-country they will have the opportunity to do well too. If the domestic market is troublesome, foreign markets may be attractive to gain stability and opportunity. 

I recognize these are controversial views and welcome your thoughts.  

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-wisdom-of-3-wise-men-weekly-blog-663.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/anticipating-topping-us-stock-market.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/stud-poker-new-swamp-game-weekly-blog.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.