Mike
Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Recognizing Change
as it Happens
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018,
Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
Perspective is Difficult to Read
When gazing out a window while traveling in a car or a plane
the view constantly changes, while the view within the vehicle remains constant,
similar to the internal changes we experience while investing. Many of us are
aware of both the outer world and our own investment perspective, although we are
often unaware of the changes in people next to us. Rarely do we focus on
factors impacting our own thinking during our travels.
Now may be a good time to review what is happening to those close
to us, and even more importantly to ourselves. The following list of items crossed
my consciousness this week, causing me to consider changes to our investments. In
no particular order:
- While I am aware of the US stock market trading volume growing, the rate of change between the 2 stock markets is telling. Over the last 12 months trading volume on the NYSE has grown +8.03%, while the NASDAQ has grown +57.39%. This indicates that there are two very separate markets. This was confirmed by Thompson Reuters’*, an old Canadian/British firm, through their actions this week. They moved their US listing to the “junior” exchange, which they identified as the home of technology companies.
- The AAII sample survey had only 28.4% of their participants being bullish for the next 6 months, while 47.3% were bearish.
- The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) industrial price index was up +6.44% over the past 12 months.
- The Chinese marriage rate has dropped -20.5%.
- JP Morgan Chase* announced layoffs for next year.
- International Mutual Funds were the best performing group this week for the first time in a long time, led by large-cap growth funds.
- The Financial Times is asking how big Walmart* can get.
- Until we actually see the final legislation and/or a court ruling, one wonders how the US will be governed. The US executive branch of government is in the courts for changes they’d like to make, after legal challenges.
I wonder how much longer the four international political
leaders (Putin, Xi, Trump, and Moodi) will remain in power.
(* Owned in client or personal accounts.)
We are at a period in history where multiple large changes are
occurring somewhat simultaneously, with significant consequences for winners and
losers. Time is a scarce resource and that creates a sense of urgency among the
participants. The following events bear close scrutiny as the outcome will be consequential
for all.
- Change in US government – The power dynamic is being challenged in Washington DC and the courts, with a clear understanding that power could revert to the old order after the mid-term elections. So, Republicans recognize that change must be accomplished within the next two years. If the Republicans are successful, the country will likely see smaller government with some power ceded to the states. Smaller government should come with smaller costs, a plus for the national debt situation.
- Global government dynamics – Many governments around the world are grappling with similar ideological dynamics as those seen in the USA and are nervous about what might come next. This was on full display at the Munich Security Conference this week. The potential for trade wars could intensify significantly.
- Two wars have the potential to conclude this year, Gaza and Ukraine. Not all are likely to be happy with the outcome. Nor will there be unanimity among those shepherding the negotiation. Rebuilding will be costly in both locations, with no clear indication of who will pay and what deals will be struck to compensate those investing the money.
- Significant technological changes are likely in the next few years, with AI, robotics, and automation at the center of these changes. There will likely be big losers and winners, where the first mover advantage could be quite significant.
- An energy renaissance is likely, as the new technology driven future requires substantially more power than what it is replacing. The green revolution will not likely provide adequate solutions for the energy shortages. Natural gas and nuclear power seem to be the likeliest winners, as they provide the most consistent baseloads and the smallest CO2 emissions.
Each of these bullet points has the potential to be disruptive.
Having them all occur at roughly the same time will make for a challenging investment
environment. While traders may be able to trade successfully, the odds favoring
investing are declining for the next several years.
I would like to hear contrary views.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
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