Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Investment Time Horizon Should Pick

How You Measure the Results

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

  

 

 

Current Situation

Billions of people invest directly or indirectly in US securities markets, with each having somewhat different motivations and thoughts about what they are doing. Since we don’t know these people and the way they think, we simply group them into buckets. I have found the intended investment period often defines how they invest and for what period.

 

My outlook is of someone who has served families and institutions, and I tend to think long-term for them. As most money invested in mutual funds is largely for retirement and most institutions are designed to pay out their assets over an extended period of many years, they too have a long-term time horizon. (Unfortunately, this focus on the long term does not come with a knowledge of what the future will bring in terms of risks and rewards.)

 

The media concentrates on “news” and fills space with the current chatter about the present and the next expected announcement of note. Most security salespeople and money managers believe potential investors are primarily interested in the present and that is the focus of their sales pitches.

 

These two different focuses have led to two very different market structures. The hyper action-oriented players dwell on any market development that leads to a move in stock prices. They celebrate the percentage gains of interim results and prognostications. Those who use securities to meet future payments are concerned about anything that might reduce these payments in terms of future purchasing power. A possible tell-tale signal of a threat is the sale of securities by supposedly knowledgeable investors.

 

This is the tug of war between those seeking near-terms rewards and those worrying about the loss of worth of some future payment. To satisfy both camps the stock exchanges publish the volume of shares sold at higher and lower prices and the number of issues which rose and fell each trading day.

 

In the latest week there were only four trading days and one of those was half a day. On the last day the volume of shares traded on the NYSE was down by approximately 2/3rds and by approximately one half on the NASDAQ*. (In the current market environment, I pay more attention to the NASDAQ, as it has risen the most this year due to having more “Tech” companies, whose stock prices are more volatile than those on “The Big Board”. On Monday the 4 indicators were larger for the NASDAQ and on Tuesday the NYSE saw better results. This see-saw pattern has occurred frequently throughout the year.) For the week, 65 % of NASDAQ stocks rose in price vs 61% for the NYSE.

*Client and personal accounts own shares in NASDAQ.

 

In terms of looking at the future there were two interesting notices. The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Survey was 89.1% vs 92.9% the prior month. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) saw a drop in bullish sentiment for the next six months in their sample survey, dropping to 37.4% from 44.1% the prior week.

 

Understanding the Measure

Most of the chatter about this change focused on the percentage change from the period immediately prior. However, there is another way to look at the results, the way an actuary would in determining the chance of a certain event happening. This is done by reviewing the entire history of the statistical sample, including any possible period where that event could reappear and at what frequency. For example, one chance out of fifty years, or every 84 months, or something similar. History traced through geological discoveries has recorded cycles of expansions and contractions with some regularity. It is much easier with regular barter or the development of money.

 

Said simply, when there is a shortage of supply over the level of demand, prices go up. When there is more supply than demand, prices drop. Climate also impacts agriculture, as does the effort of humans. The supply of money was a recent concern, which has more recently shifted to concerns about the supply of credit and certain natural resources. In all cases, it is the imbalance of critical items which moves prices to a point of excess, which causes a reversal.

 

Small reversals happen more frequently than large ones, often occurring within a single presidential term. However, small reversals periodically stretch over two or conceivably three terms. In trying to avoid or stop small declines, the application of well-meaning changes can trigger bigger declines, which we label depressions.

 

Addressing the economic hardships caused by the cost of fighting WWI led to an extended period of debt expansion, which initially hurt the farming communities. This led to the application of tariffs to protect small banks which extended loans to over expanded farmers and farm equipment dealers in critically important mid-western senate seats. Simultaneously, the public became enamored with the use of credit in an already highly priced stock market.

 

The market crash of 1929 caused many people to lose money in margin accounts, along with many of their brokers. The market reached a bottom in 1931, but people were scared by what had happened. In 1932 they elected FDR as President as a protector of the banks, and he closed all the banks in 1933 in an attempt to restructure society. Even though FDR lost most of his battles with the Constitution and the Courts, he initiated various government agencies that mismanaged the economy until we entered WWII, which he helped start in both the Pacific and Atlantic. The US recovered slowly after the war and subsequent Korean Conflict, although some stocks listed on the NYSE did not reach their 1929 highs until the mid-1960s with the discounted dollar.

 

Semi Parallels Today

There has been an expansion of debt both at the federal and individual level, with bankruptcies currently rising. At the same time, prudent constraints on the financial community have been reduced or eliminated. Additionally, we have an underequipped military, including Navy, Air, Space, and Coast Guard not ready for a multi-front war.

 

Conclusion:

We don’t know when the next decline will happen, or if the depth of the decline will morph into a depression. However, we should resist being fully exposed to rising gains in the non-public market while we experience a stagnant private economy. It is possible gains achieved in 2026 may be expensive in the long run, so be careful.   

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920

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Inflection Point: “Trump Trade” at Risk - Weekly Blog # 862

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Inflection Point: “Trump Trade” at Risk

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

When Traveling We Often Don’t Know We Are Lost

As a portfolio manager for multi-generational accounts, it is critical to continually focus on the long-term funding needs of accounts, particularly when I am no longer around. In effect we are on a long march, which was part of my training as a USMC officer. (Most of our subscribers will read this blog on the 249th Birthday of The Corps) Rarely does a long march go in a straight line and each turn could be a minor change in direction. Alternatively, it could be a significant change in direction to avoid future danger. At some point a good Marine will recognize that we have passed a critical inflection point.

 

Our fellow investment marchers should be aware of a meaningful change in direction, speed of travel, and a different set of tactical moves. As an officer, it is my duty to consider changes.

 

Recent chatter from various investment pundits suggests there are various “Trump Trades”. Without making a judgement on each suggestion, I am willing to bet a year from now at least half those trades will not have worked out.

 

These trades are based on the 45th President’s actions and campaign comments. I believe no one knows what the 47th President will be able to get accomplished in his first year. We may think we know what he wants to do, but the world has changed both domestically and internationally and he doesn’t know for sure. Based on history, I am concerned about how Congress will follow direction. In many ways, both Chambers of the two major parties are split internally.  Just look at the number of announced caucuses and the potential number of informal voting blocks. Republican majorities in both chambers are likely be under 10 members. Furthermore, the incoming President did not do much to get many members elected. There are a number of Senators who see themselves sitting in The Oval office after the 2028 elections.

 

My portfolio management suggestions for protecting portfolio manager’s jobs are the following:

1. Divide the Trump Trades in half and hold one half for the next year.
2. With the second half, subdivide into twelve equal groups and sell one group each month for the next year.
3. Put the freed-up cash in an equal-weighted S&P 500 index fund if you must be invested, otherwise put the cash in a money market fund.

The above tactic is for short exposure but does not address the real problem.

 

Lack of Competent Leadership is the Problem

As a society Americans have become defensive about their own worth and their jobs. We seek to acquire the credentials that qualified us at some point in time for a particular job, “guaranteeing” that job and income. Once we have the credentials, we no longer need to compete. The longer the elapsed time from when we “earned” the credentials, the less talents we acquire. To offset this deficiency, we lean more on support staff. During WWII it required eight support people for every fighting man (mostly men).

 

This is true not only in the military, but also in medicine, government and schooling. (Note, I didn’t say education.) The larger the staff, the more bureaucratic the control systems get. (A classic example is the Ukrainian fighting people vs the Russian Army.) In general, the more people involved the less efficient the group gets and the longer it takes between promotions.

 

Our so-called educational system (school and university) has molded our workforce since the 1920s. The Communist Party thought that if they could control New York and other school systems they could impact the government, aided by the Depression. The key for union teachers was protecting their jobs by teaching-to-pass exams, both for teachers and students. They were not taught how to think. This strategy was remarkably successful.

 

These teachers trained many of the senior teachers who trained the senior college and university students of today, which explains the political efforts of the majority of teachers today. Trustees and Deans don’t control most of the critical choices of their schools. The faculty senate are the main decision makers, run on a seniority basis.

 

These are the people who are teaching the leaders of today and tomorrow in government, medicine, and business. They tend to favor large organizations, despite most progress in society originating from smaller groups.

 

Inflation is not the Problem

Inflation is society’s way of dealing with imbalances between current supply and demand. Attempts by a top-down government to control the urges of people to balance supply and demand are not useful. Every attempt to control these forces has enlarged grey and black markets, often summoned in regulated and expensive markets. Most supply shortages are due to government regulation for the benefit of friends of the government.

 

In Conclusion

If we have entered a new cycle, we may see a very different set of trends that we will need to understand and master. Any thoughts on how to manage long-term portfolios?

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: This Was the Week That Was, But Not What Was Expected - Weekly Blog # 861

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Stress Unfelt by the “Bulls”, Yet !! - Weekly Blog # 859

 

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What Moves the Stock Market? - Weekly Blog # 824

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

What Moves the Stock Market?

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

   

 

         

Fearful Challenge

A common mistake many people make is confusing the credibility of spiritual leaders and markets pundits. Professional preachers proclaim their belief in what will happen in the fullness of time. Stock market pundits, who are not as bright or skilled as many religious speakers, make the mistake of being more specific about dates and price levels. At best, market prognosticators can occasionally be right about dates and/or prices, but rarely both at the same time.

 

With all their mathematics and computer skills, recorded history suggests the future should be knowable in every instance. While we have great precision as to what happened, we don’t know what caused people to do what they do. Since we don’t rigorously examine our deep emotions for each action, we may not know exactly why we bought or sold something at a particular point in time.

 

Best We Can Do

The best we can do is identify what we think we knew at a particular point in time. Investors currently have a plethora of prices and other indices available to them, but rarely a record of emotions. Furthermore, our decision-making process evolves over time, influenced by current leadership and the ideas of other people.

 

Because we only know or remember the numerical data surrounding our decisions, we attribute our decisions exclusively to numbers. I believe this is why in looking at financial history we tie our decisions exclusively to the known numbers. It is the main reason many of the numbers do not generate good predictions. I would not be surprised that the track record is only 60%-75% accurate. (This falls under the old label of “good enough for government work”.) 

 

Thoughts on the Day of the Decision

There are only about 240 days a year when most investors can execute an order. Most investors probably trade less than once per month, with institutional investors trading less than 8 days per month in their long maturity portfolios. Consequently, most investors are not active most days, with nothing spurring them to action in each portfolio. Additionally, the spur to act may occur on quite a different day than the trade, unless price is the cause. Thus, it is difficult for an outsider to identify the ultimate cause of the action.

 

What Could Have Been the Critical Fact Last Week?

1. The DJ Transportation Index chart looks toppy.
2. FT headline “Hedge funds stampede into cocoa futures”. (Hedge funds are trend followers and there is a history of cocoa crashes sending players into highly leveraged coffee plays.)
3. Morgan Stanley is laying off several hundred from their wealth management division. (This division is the central reason Morgan Stanley is viewed more highly than investment banking and trading driven Goldman Sachs.)
4. In the chart in the weekend Wall Street Journal of stock indices, commodities, currencies, and ETFs, 65% are declining.

 

Too Narrow a Focus on Inflation

Inflation is caused by an imbalance between supply and demand for an undetermined period of time. It includes the follow elements: supply or demand shocks caused by weather, accidents, government actions like tariffs and other impediments to free and/or easy trade, and partial or complete military mobilizations. (In terms of the current US situation, the federal government is the single largest contributor to inflation, followed by union management pay demands.

 

Calendar Guide

While the calendar year is already more than 10% complete, we probably have not seen the most critical announcements of the year. Considering we have a probable lame duck president, divided political parties and a split Congress, this may be the time to build a higher-than-normal cash reserve to be used to buy some sound investments for the remainder of the decade.

 

What Do You Think?

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Picking Winners/Avoiding Losers - Weekly Blog # 823

Mike Lipper's Blog: Is This “Bull Market” Real? - Weekly Blog # 822

Mike Lipper's Blog: Worth vs Price Historically - Weekly Blog # 821

 

 

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Primer on Starts of Cyclical & Stagflation - Weekly Blog # 771

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Primer on Starts of Cyclical & Stagflation

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Looking at the current US stock market, the determination of the next important market call is not known, at least not by me. On one side the believers think the Fed can change inflation by controlling the interest rates. On the other side there are pragmatists who see a much more complex world where stock and other prices can fall meaningfully for an indefinite period.

 

Recognizing that I like everyone else am a gambler, I look at how to prepare investors for either extreme. As usual, I find an imbalance born from a “liberal arts” education and the short form media. We have been conditioned to find an easily understood important trend demonstrating future growth. Because of its relative rarity, there is little knowledge concerning the downside of recessions/depressions and stagnation. Unlike the happy talk of growth, most people don’t want to focus on periods where people get hurt financially and emotionally.

 

Without predicting a significant move to the downside, I am gambling our time by examining the nature of possible material downsides. There is significant but not conclusive evidence that such a period is coming. If such a period does not come soon, at least you will have learned what to watch for in the future.

 

Troubling Signals

As with many laundry-lists, the order of observation is accidental and not meant to signify rank of importance or order of future troubles.

•  Continued short-term US Treasury rate inversion.

The 2-year rate is 4.51% which for many is attractive. This is quite competitive with stocks yielding less with uncertain futures.

 

•  Stock prices fell for 4 days last week.

• Excluding energy earnings, other companies lost -7.1% in ’22.

Are we beginning stagflation starting with 2016?

 

• $2.2 billion going into international equity ETFs vs. $1.7 billion going into domestic ETFs.

 

• Reasons for poor earnings from a successful importer: 

High and expensive customer inventory leading to low replacement sales and dollar weakness. There appears to be a switch in strategy from profit focus to cash management.

 

• OPEC+ did not raise prices when Russia cut production.

Quite possibly they felt that Biden was inflationary, which could reduce demand.

 

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative is slowing and shifting.

Need more US imports to pay for China’s exports.

 

• S&P Global is not issuing guidance, as the future is uncertain.

 

• A number of financial services companies are changing CEOs or making material changes, like Goldman Sachs.

One of our concerns is that most organizations are currently led by people with political skills, not operating skills.

 

• 31.6% of net ETF equity flows are in Chinese investments.

 

• Liquidity is declining again.

 

• WSJ article headline “Retailers Hesitate to Accept More Inventory” from apparel makers.

 

• Global Minimum taxes are inflationary.

 

• Wonder if the 60/40 ratio of stocks to bonds is misapplied.

Should it instead be applied to risk and less risk, with less risk defined in terms of income?

 

What is the Future?

While the gambler is forced to deal with possible changes to the present, the speculator accepts the present as the base case to build her/his model of preferred change. I am a combination of both, and don’t like the present or its logical path. With that in mind I suggest the following radical changes, any of which might change our current trajectory to a better future.

 

Possible, but Unlikely Changes

Recognize current economic problems are not a function of too little demand, but of too little supply. Demand in the commercial world for the most part is a function of competition and customer desires. However, in far too many transactions the heavy hand of government dictates what the customer will buy and at what price. It would be an interesting exercise to calculate how much government interference costs the economy!! My guess, it’s of the same order of magnitude as the cost to consumers of raising interest rates to somewhat ineffectively bring down inflation. (Inflation is caused by demand exceeding supply and excessive government grants.)

 

There are two other ways the government can reduce its costs and improve its services:

1. In an electronic age there is precious little advantage in having major government departments and agencies located in D.C. for the ease of lobbyists and the enshrinement of the government working class.
2. Government at the Federal and State/local levels are monopolists. The existence of Chartered Schools largely demonstrates that the school system can benefit from competition. I wonder whether the same could be said for hospitals and other medical institutions.

 

All organized spending groups, whether for profit, non-profit, or government agencies, could benefit from post spending analysis. We would then be able to see what was accomplished from the spending and what lessons could be learned. The more efficient companies, particularly serial acquirers, do this.

 

A similar approach would make sense in terms of aids and grants. This should be a requirement in regular reports to donors and citizens. I suspect the delivery costs are greater than the benefits.

 

Productivity measures have been in secular decline for many years. This is probably caused by inefficiencies in our society rather than labor’s bargaining power.

 

What are the inefficiencies you see?

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Words that Trap: Growth, Value, Recession - Weekly Blog # 770

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Week in Conflict Leads to Buy List - Weekly blog # 764

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Week in Conflict Leads to Buy List

 

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

            

 

 

Trading Didn’t Tell Us Much 

Over-simplification: Buyers largely believe that inflation is the sole problem facing the market and the Federal Reserve will take care of it by managing short-term interest rates. As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. 

 

The next two days saw prices decline in reaction to a greater than expected fall in November retail sales. Department stores led with a more than -2.5% decline compared to an overall average decline of -0.6%, vs. an estimated decline of -0.2%. (Visits to the high-end The Mall at Short Hills in early and mid-December saw a lack of salespeople, incomplete stock, and vacant stores.) There is a second group of investors, some of which were trading and many more not. I call them Realists. 

 

Friday’s transactions were partially misleading in that over $4 trillion dollars’ worth of options came due. Options users often hedge individual securities, exchange-traded funds, and other derivatives. On Friday both the NYSE and NASDAQ traded over 5 million shares on the downside, vs. a total transaction count of 5.4 million shares on the NYSE and 5.5 million shares on the NASDAQ. (Remember, about 40% more shares were traded off the exchanges.)  1.7 million and 2.4 million shares were traded on the upside. (Thus, I am not sure how to interpret these actions, other than them giving us a clue on the size of the speculative market.)  

 

Although the believers will hopefully be right, it does not appear it will be soon. Economists have created an index of leading indicators which are still going down by about 1% per month. The believers, particularly those that are Washington oriented, focus on national numbers. They do this because it leads them to policies where they can harvest votes. The realists are more attuned to measures that track the wealth of the country and the world. This year the aggregate wealth on main street has been rising due to an inflated sample of real estate prices rising faster than public portfolio values have been declining. These people recognize their good fortune but worry about inflation and the decreasing purchase value of their currency. 

 

A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. Thirty-year bonds have fallen 35%, the worst in over a century. (Never have they fallen 3 years in a row.) 

 

Commodities are finishing the year as the best asset class for a second consecutive year. Commodities are going up in price because of actual and perceived shortages, both at the industrial level and to a lesser extent at the food level. When demand drops for industrial goods in a dampening economy, some commodity prices will also drop. This is exactly what OPEC+ fears, a fall in demand.) 

 

Brokers also see a sharp increase in the purchase of tax-exempt bonds. Many of these bonds are backed by expected state and local income taxes. These revenues will likely drop when individual and corporate income drops and won’t be meaningfully offset by rising rates for political reasons.

 

Thus, in an attempt to preserve investor wealth and purchasing power, a major portion of their wealth may be exposed to rising interest rates and a decline in purchasing power. After which rates could fall if “The Fed” reduces them. It is exactly the reason I am suggesting long-term prudent investors begin investing a portion of their assets in something that was previously mostly attractive to seniors. 

 

Tactical Reserve Preparation 

This time it’s different in that capital is being temporarily retrieved from risk assets. (The length of time out of the market will be determined by changing investment and personal conditions.) Since none of us know what the future will bring, we should utilize some of our money to defend against the possibility of stagflation, which could last ten years or more. This has happened twice in the last century.  

 

The tactical reserve is best structured by buckets. One bucket being long-term oriented and another short-term. The latter would be kept in locally deposited savings accounts, money market funds, and 2 year or shorter US Treasury paper.  

 

The larger portion, or perhaps the total of the tactical reserves should be invested in Equity Income stocks, an old asset class that is slowly becoming available. For many years these investments were difficult to find due to low interest rate yields. 

 

Currently, 2-year US Treasuries are yielding 4%. In this weekend’s WSJ I was pleased to find 48 stocks out of list of the 1000 largest equities yielding above that number. My filter was common stocks yielding between 4.0 and 5.99% whose price/earnings ratio was below 15x. Every investment has risks and those with yields of 6% or more are believed by the market to have some capital risk. Also, stocks with a P/E above 15 may not have earnings approximately equal to twice the current dividend. Most of these companies regularly raise the dividend at least as much as inflation. Another helpful characteristic is a significant number of shares being held by a family or other interested parties, like some pensions, endowments, and income oriented mutual funds. 

 

While there is some portfolio diversification in the list of 48, it is not as diversified as the broad-based market indices. The largest common denominator on the list is financial companies, with a heavy collection of domestic and foreign banks, particularly Canadian. The list includes Citigroup. Real estate and utilities are also prominent. I was pleasantly surprised to see 3 fund management company stocks I own in order to participate in a growing financial services business. Furthermore, there were names of major holdings in the investment companies I own. I also found some names of stocks I should investigate for inclusion in my tactical reserve or other portfolios. 

At this point the task shifts from security selection to portfolio construction and ongoing management. As we are building a tactical reserve, we need to avoid unnecessary exposure to losses. The first rule is to reduce risks by diversification. The best way to start is to have a beginning portfolio of at least five holdings, which hopefully will grow to ten distinct holdings in time. Pick your holdings from each of the sectors - Domestic banks, foreign banks), non-bank financials, life insurance, property owners, energy providers and servicers, industrial producers of needed products, and utilities. (Some pay dividends in dollars while making their money in different currencies, including commodity aided currencies like the Canadian dollar.) Be careful to limit the maximum single holding to twenty percent of this account.  

 

When operating the account, small cash distributions should be transferred to the cash account. If the prices of the holdings drop ten percent more than the market, stop buying. If prices fall twenty percent or more, consider selling half or all the holding. 

 

Remember, these operating procedures are suggested for the tactical reserve account. A different set of rules and procedures would be more appropriate for accounts having different target dates for payments. The other important thing to remember is that the quicker an investor learns humility, the bigger the ultimate return.    

 

For long-term subscribers who will share their intended use of the list with me, I will make the list available to them.   

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper’s Blog: What does your 4.0 Profile Tell You? – Weekly Blog # 763

Mike Lipper’s Blog: Week Divided: Believers vs Investors – Weekly Blog # 762

Mike Lipper’s Blog: This Was The Week That Wasn’t – Weekly Blog # 761

 

 

 

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