Failed Expectations: Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips - Weekly Blog # 925

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Failed Expectations

Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Was this the week that was?

Last week’s blog anticipated a ruling by the US Supreme Court on the Presidential use of Executive Orders to impose tariffs on countries and products. It was further expected that the President would use substitute measures to accomplish similar goals if he loses the Supreme Court case. Additionally, there was a belief that the government would be forced to repay the existing tariffs to the American people (voters). The new tariffs would probably cause some changes by foreign nations. None of this happened.

 

Instead, the major topic of conversation at the World Economic Forum at Davos was Greenland. Discussions moved at lightening or Trump speed from a military occupation to a not fully disclosed peaceful agreement with NATO forces by the end of the week. The importance of these dramatic changes reminds us of what may be topic one in developing future investment strategies. All of this brief history shows how wrong we can be. What we missed was the significant price level change that occurred this week.

 

Critical Price Changes

Starting with the least followed ECRI industrial price index, which normally moves ploddingly. The index rose to 126.28 from the prior week’s 120.49. The jump raised the year-over-year gain to 6.58%, which is greater than the various inflation measures the Fed and many others use. I would not be surprised to see industrial buyers of products add this amount to their resale prices, after adding an insurance amount to protect their profits against further prices increases.

 

One explanation of ECRI prices can be found in the weekly price chart in the weekend Wall Street Journal, which showed Natural Gas rising +70.0% and Silver +14.57% for the week. Part of these increases could be for increased use of these items in the normal course of business. However, I suspect some of the increased demand comes from trading and/or gambling interests, either on the long side or from covering short positions. The importance of the last sentence is that the size of the trading and gambling sectors is growing, and I believe it’s already quite large.

 

The third price increase impacts all of us in our daily purchase of goods and services. It is the value of the dollar. On Friday the 16th of January the US dollar index was 99.395, one week later it was 97.599. The President has threatened foreign countries if they sell US assets!! (I personally believe this won’t happen, but it shows a sensitivity to the value of the dollar, even though Trump and Xi have both advocated for a lower value of their currencies as mercantilists.)

 

Warning

I have already indicated how wrong I can be. Please be careful in developing your own investment strategy and make changes slowly, not abruptly.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923 Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

 

 

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Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Is This The Week That Ends Instability?

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 Preface

I believe it was Lenin who said there are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. Possibly, the four-day trading week beginning this coming Tuesday is such a period. In both the Financial Times and her podcast, Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab* introduced the concept of the period we are going through as an extended period of instability. I am suggesting it is possible the beginning of the end of this period may have begun.

*Shares held in in managed and personal accounts.

 

Fund Data Sets the Table

Whether one invests in mutual funds or not, one should recognize that not only do many people invest in them, but more importantly, many fund managers get their training at fund shops. Thus, one can get an understanding of the institutional mind set by looking at fund data. In the five years ended last Thursday, the London Stock Exchange Group published my old firm’s weekly study of 105 equity related mutual fund peer-groups average performances.

 

The average performance of S&P 500 Index funds was 14.05% compounded for the past five years.  There were only five peer group averages that were better: Precious Metals Equity Funds +21.50%, Energy MLP Funds +20.79%, Commodities Precious Metals Funds +18.75%, Natural Resources Funds +17.30%, and Global Natural Resources Funds +16.05%.  There were just two better performing thematic categories, precious metals and energy. The narrowness of performance leadership proves how difficult it was to pick winners for the past five years. The leadership crown was indeed unstable.

 

Another way to identify the instability in economic data is to examine the tails of the best and worst 2 items shown in Saturday’s WSJ weekly price chart. The best was Silver +11.67% and the second best was the KOPSI +5.55%. The second worst price performance was Financials -2.33%, which was half as bad as Corn -4.71%, the worst performer. The gaps between the top two leaders and laggards suggest concentration is at play.

 

Turning Points Possible Next Week

On Tuesday, probably in the late afternoon, SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the US) is expected to announce its decision on the IEEPA tariff. The President has said he is prepared for an unfavorable ruling and has substitute measures in mind. At best this will be disruptive, and possibly inflationary. The ECRI industrial price index, which is normally slow moving, rose to 120.49% from the prior week’s level of 117.42%.

 

Markets are anticipating problems, either from Tariffs or possibly Iran. Sixty-two percent of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) rose last week, while only fifty-three percent rose on the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ trades more tech stocks and the shares of younger companies. Thus, the junior exchange is likely to react more than the “Big Board” to news events. Retail investors, when not gambling, are more active on the junior market. One possible measure of this is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sample survey, which reported 49.5% bullish for the next six months, up from 42.5% the prior week. What may be more significant is the 28.2% that were bearish. Many professional traders believe “the public” is wrong at turning points.

 

The Davos meeting begins Tuesday, with many political and economic leaders present and chatting. One doesn’t know what will be discussed and how meaningful the meetings will be.

 

Keep us Informed as to any Changes in Your Views.   

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

Mike Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

 

 

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Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

 

 

 

 

How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

How Much Longer Can We Avoid

Thinking About the Long-Term?

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

First Week 2026

Using the performance of equity mutual funds, it was a great week with average gains of more than +2%. If repeated for each week of the year it would produce returns of over 100%. Even the value of the US dollar rose a bit during the week. That was the delusional news! What’s even worse, the average commodity fund invested in gold and other precious metals rose +4.02%. Funds owning stocks of gold and other precious metal mining companies gained +5.32% on average through Thursday. The latter can suffer mining risks, labor strikes, and raised taxes. Historically, gold has been a hedge against the value of a currency, particularly the US dollar. There is also a small industrial market for gold in the electronics market, which might be in the region of $1,000 an ounce. How much demand for gold jewelry is really demand for a convenient way to pass on its monetary value? I don’t know. Part of the demand for gold as a use in the crypto world is not known by me. All told, I suspect over half of the value of gold is as a substitute for the US dollar.

 

What Is The Value Of The US dollar?

Something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Currently, it appears to be about $0.99 cents, up from $0.96 cents. However, the critical question is its worth in the future. That appears to be what someone is willing to pay for it, delivered today or on a specific date and quantity in the future.

 

According to a paper prepared by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Twenty-five years ago, people believed the US fiscal budget looking forward 10 years would be $5.9 Billion, with all public debt paid off by 2006. The readers of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now project a 2054 debt to GDP ratio of 199%, incorporating temporary provisions. Net interest payments would rise to 6.3% from 3.2% today. (I don’t know how to impact these numbers with the increase in gambling.  In first 11 months of 2025, total sports gambling in New Jersey was $67 Billion. The rise of non-securities backed gambling, particularly among the young, appears to be on the rise.)

 

Why Should We Care?

Even with the increase in retail securities markets investing, institutional investors set the prices of fixed income securities and many large-cap stocks. Most money invested through 401k and similar retirement accounts are invested in mutual funds or SMAs. Insurance companies, endowments, and other institutional investors may increase their investment in foreign securities, which will impact domestic stock prices. Both domestic and foreign controlled investors may shift some of their investment focus if the dollar becomes weaker.

 

Leaders Increasingly Think Globally

Foreign leaders have increasingly thought globally in determining their strategies. Our main adversaries, China, Russia, and North Korea are strategists, whereas the US tends to view the world as tacticians through domestic glasses and the next election time scale. Luckily, many of our domestic commercial leaders are increasingly thinking strategically.

 

Strategies Going Forward

Going forward, we should recognize that the world is changing at a rapid rate and we need to change with it. Old rules and strategies will change. We must be careful.

 

Please share your thoughts.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

Mike Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

Mike Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

 

Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

 

Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Data May Be Signaling Change

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Preface

I came to my desk Saturday morning and was prepared to begin writing this week’s blog. My thought pattern suggested we were quite possibly in a pivot period, with market leadership shifting to foreign priced securities priced substantially below “AI” securities. Then I paid attention to Bloomberg television, which is on 24 hours a day. I was mesmerized by the news on the raid on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. The daring and skills involved were impressive and the growing implications are disturbing.

 

Normally, I try to view everything from a global perspective, as I believe almost all we do has roots in the global world. However, for this week’s blog I am not going to deal with the longer-term implications of the successful raid and capture of indicted criminals. It is too early to tell. I expect these events will create global shadows which I will address in future blogs. The world listens but does not necessarily follow the U.S

 

Pivoting to the Data

 

Last Two Weeks of 2025

Each of the last two trading weeks, including January 2nd, have had only four trading days of relatively light trading volume. A disproportionate number of trades were either tax motivated, or position statement driven. Nevertheless, they share traits with many earlier days of December’s trading, with more stocks sold on minus ticks than rising prices. It is worth noting that the popular stock market indices generally rose a small amount. This highlights the dichotomy in the market between what many believe are retail driven indices and a broader, slower-moving institutional market. I am guessing many retirement and other long-term institutions were relatively quiet in the last part of 2025.

 

This institutional hesitation mirrors the large corporations’ labor practices, where many companies spend considerable amounts training new employees, which they consider assets. They are therefore reluctant to fire many employees and are slow to hire new workers. Some believe in the “promise of “AI”, where in the not-too-distant future companies will need less employees to produce the same or more sales. Consequently, many employers are not hiring new employees, other than critical replacements.

 

Typically, corporations begin investing new capital into their retirement plans in January, be it pension or 401-k accounts. The institutional advisory community has counted on this flow in the past. My guess, it may be smaller this year. We will see.  

 

Prices and Inflation

There were two lessons on prices in the Weekend Edition of The Wall Street Journal, which measures 72 traded items each week. Only 24 prices or one-third were up, and 48 prices were down. Are we peaking? The second lesson from these data is that markets deal with both extreme momentary shortages and slower moving prices, which are more common. One analytical technique I use to differentiate them is to examine the top and bottom two prices. On the upside is Comex Silver +142.34% and Platinum +127.57%. On the downside are Orange Juice -58.75% and Cocoa -48.05%. I believe these four are special imbalances, as the third extreme prices are the KOSPI composite +75.63% and the Argentine Peso -28.96%. The gaps between the extremes and third ranking are large. Much smaller but concerning nevertheless is the one-week industrial prices gain of +1.28% in the ECRI weekly index, suggesting inflation is not under control.

 

The Key Link

If there were a single suggestion of a world view of the US economy, it would be the value of the US dollar. The Financial Times headline “Dollar Is Wild Card in 2026”. This UK publication, now owned by the Japanese newspaper/wire service giant, is a traditional critic of the US. The value of the dollar is dependent on two factors, the value of the other major currencies and the price of the dollar. In 2025, numerous foreign markets have for the first time in many years appreciated more than the US. Currencies, like securities, are priced at their perceived future value. Not only is the US government spending more than it is earning through taxes and tariffs, but it’s also expected by many to continue to do so in the future. (Even if tariffs bring in a lot of money, part of the receipts are expected to be paid to citizens instead of being used to pay our debts.) In addition, both President Trump and Chairman Yi have stated they would both like their currencies to decline. Some weakness in the dollar may have been caused by individual and institutional investors selling dollars to buy foreign securities.

 

What to Do?

Examine whether it is prudent to have 100% of your long-term investment money in securities that are traded primarily in dollars? Is it time to pivot?

 

Share your thoughts, please.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

Mike Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920

Mike Lipper's Blog: Are Investors Seeing a Change? Politicos Are Not - Weekly Blog # 919

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

 

Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.