It May Be Early - Weekly Blog # 898

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

It May Be Early

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

A Usual Trap

A classic mistake in making future plans is focusing mainly on the present. In search of an investment policy for the next few years or longer, one should look at the causes of the main trends, not the size of the tariffs that have been announced.

 

The key force behind the announcements on tariffs is Donald Trump. His background is one of complex negotiations evolved from materially different views of how he sees the present and the future. I believe The President saw a critical problem of unfair trading terms facing the U.S. and saw a way to change the terms in favor of the country. He saw a way to solve the problem through meaningful discussion with the powers on the other side. The key was getting the right people around the table.

 

The core elements of unfairness are to be found in non-tariff trade barriers (NTB) erected by commercial interests with official or unofficial government support. (A number of examples were listed in last week’s blog, copy available.) While there is no published total of each country’s NTB effects, some experts believe their impact is twice the level of tariffs applied.

 

Mr. Trump’s way of dealing with foreign countries is to make the host nation an ally by using the size of US tariffs as a hammer. This is the reason behind the high announced tariffs, which is where President Trump expects the real bargaining to begin. I expect negotiations with major trading partners to take most of the summer. We may never fully understand the various changes to NTB’s, but a good clue will be changes to US tariffs.

 

Clearly there is another element to the aggregate size of the final US tariffs, the amount of cash expected to be paid to the US Treasury. This needs to be meaningful enough to keep the growth of the annual deficit acceptable to an unknown number of Republican Senators.

 

Most of these should be settled in the fall and early winter, so they do not unduly impact the mid-term elections. The economic background to the elections may be influenced by layoffs and the administration’s attempt to expand the economy. Additionally, further international actions may be the cause of how some state elections turn out.

 

The current crosswinds shown below may also impact the level of markets during this period:

1. After a period of outflows, T. Rowe Price is cutting staff.
2. Freight railroads are growing from China to Iran and Spain, for US continental trains, and other trains from Canada to Mexico.
3. Tariffs may encourage smuggling.
4. The latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sample survey showed a 39% positive and negative 6-month outlook.
5. A study of structural bear markets shows the average breakeven to be about 9 years.
6. The critical operating problems facing the US government is no different than those facing commercial and non-profit activities, a focus on effectiveness, not efficiency.
7. Jaimie Dimon has shared the following thoughts:

• Tariffs will be inflationary
• US reserve currency status rests on military superiority
• Markets are not low
• Lessons can be learned from the turnaround of Detroit and problems created (and elongated) during the 1929 crash
• Dollar weakness helps US multinationals 

As usual, I hope you will share your insights on the various thoughts expressed.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Misperceptions: Contrarian & Other Viewpoints: Majority vs Minority - Weekly Blog # 897

Mike Lipper's Blog: Expectations: 3rd 20%+ Gain - Stagflation - Weekly Blog # 896

Mike Lipper's Blog: Analyst Calendar: Preparation for 2026 - Weekly Blog # 895

 

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

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Misperceptions: Contrarian & Other Viewpoints: Majority vs Minority - Weekly Blog # 897

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Misperceptions: Contrarian & Other

Viewpoints: Majority vs Minority

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

                             

 

 

Every day through the popular press, pundits in or out of political positions express views that our current information will lead to a happy conclusion. Occasionally it will happen and contrarians like me acknowledge that it can and may happen, but the odds it will happen are only 30% to 50%, like the odds a favorite horse winning at the racetrack. By definition, the reward for winning will be the lowest of all horses in the competition. Contrarians can select a different horse with potentially higher rewards by choosing to wager against the majority.

 

Currently, it appears to this contrarian that it’s a particularly good time to take a contrary view of the intermediate period of the US stock market. The primary reason for this view is the bullish feelings presented in the popular press with such shallow thinking.

 

The US Stock Market is Going Up

The weekend press is full of similar statements because the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) rose a small amount on Thursday. (This gain was given back on Friday when 390 S&P 500 issues declined. More significantly for the week, 54% of the stocks declined on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.)

 

US Tariffs Announced

The President or White House Personnel announced import duty rates with a limited number of the countries, which in theory would slow the growth of the expected rising deficit. (The higher tariffs likely to be charged on exports from these countries is not known for an obvious reason.) The President is well versed on restrictions imposed on US exports by each trading partner, which are labeled as “non-tariff trade barriers”. These include the following list:

Administrative & bureaucratic border delays

Censorship

Foreign exchange & controls

Import deposits

Capital movement regulations

Licenses

Localization requirements

Standards

Quotas

“Voluntary” export restraints

 

I don’t know of any summing up of the cost of the above barriers, or others not identified. I have seen knowledgeable estimates that are roughly twice the size of the tariffs. President Trump started the whole discussion about tariffs to get high-level meetings with some of the “right” people around the negotiating table in order to deal with the “NTB” issues imposed by various individual countries. As this has not yet happened, I wonder if we have seen a final answer to both the tariff and non-tariff trade barrier issues.

 

Markets Are Not Waiting

Businesses and investors must execute global trades and make investment decisions every day in the absence of firm conclusions to these and other questions. The US dollar relative to other principal currencies has fallen about 12% in 2025, with more expected. This week, Barron’s quoted a participant saying, “The days of the world letting America live beyond its means are rapidly coming to an end.”

 

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) publishes the price movements of various securities indices and commodity prices each Saturday. This current week 61% of the prices declined. It appears many purchasers of goods and services are not demonstrating an inability to act but are instead unwilling to transact under today’s conditions and outlook.

 

Please let me know what you are thinking.   

 

PS

Some of our subscribers may have known my brother Arthur, who passed away peacefully Sunday afternoon. He led a long productive life helping many people on both coasts and two oceans.

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Expectations: 3rd 20%+ Gain - Stagflation - Weekly Blog # 896

Mike Lipper's Blog: Analyst Calendar: Preparation for 2026 - Weekly Blog # 895

Mike Lipper's Blog: Inconclusive Week Hiding a Big Problem - Weekly Blog # 894

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

 

Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

 

Expectations: 3rd 20%+ Gain - Stagflation - Weekly Blog # 896

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Expectations: 3rd 20%+ Gain - Stagflation

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

                             

 

 

 

 

3 ½ Day Trading Week

Normally, in a three and a half-day trading week we expect low volume and muted news of any significance to investors with less intense trading instincts and reduced staff levels. This was not the case this past week. Despite initial unruly Republican Party members in both Congressional houses, the so-called Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) tax and tariff bill passed with few amendments. Significant progress was made on reciprocal tariffs and possible trade barriers. Cease fire agreements in Gaza moved toward peace agreements. One suspects a Russian economic crunch, continued causalities sustained in the homeland, and the US threatening reduced US military aid to Ukraine, could hopefully lead to a reduction in deaths and soon become less of a distraction.

 

Trading Reactions

Led by favorable reactions to the passing of the BBB that were cheered on by The White House, many saw things getting better. These reactions stirred up bullish sentiments resulting in the S&P 500 Index reaching its first high for the year since February. Some even suggested 2025 could be the third +20% gain year in a row, a rare event.

 

Professional analysts and experienced economists are two-handed thinkers who don’t receive the same air or face time that advocates of simple tales do. First, the S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index with a small number of highly valued stocks recording bigger gains than the average stock. An equally weighted index gained 5% less than the S&P 500. More importantly, at least to me, 9 of the 11 industry sectors in the index underperformed the overall index, with Info Tech and Communications doing better.

 

Economists often turn to the actions of corporate leaders for clues as they feel the stock market is too volatile and occasionally wrong in direction or magnitude. Currently, slightly less than half of publicly traded companies have announced employee layoffs going forward. Considering the cost and time spent getting qualified employees, cutbacks are an expensive strategy companies would like to avoid. Part of their problem is that they can’t find qualified new employees today, which means it is particularly painful to let good ones go. This is particularly true for companies with an aging workforce.

 

The lack of success in finding good new employees while keeping the better aging ones is in my mind not a cyclical problem cured by higher sales levels. It is a secular problem caused by the system we have built, which has failed us by confusing education with schooling. The problem starts in the home, often due to a single adult household, and continues on through early childhood education. The impact is felt all the way through PhD studies, with a system awarding promotions through test taking rather than productivity and intellectual integrity.

 

Historical Lessons

Perhaps we can learn from the past. With that thought in mind I recommend reading this week’s Barron’s article titled “The Coming Stagflation Won’t Feel Like the 70’s” by Joseph Brusuelas. I believe there is another parallel that should be considered, the US with an activist President and an accommodating Congress. Both the current occupant of The White House and FDR came into office seeking to make fundamental changes, but both ran into opposition from the courts. FDR took a recession and turned it into a depression, not by choice but in part due to the impact of stagflation. I do not necessarily agree with Joseph Brusuelas’ statistical projections.

 

What do you Think?      

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Analyst Calendar: Preparation for 2026 - Weekly Blog # 895

Mike Lipper's Blog: Inconclusive Week Hiding a Big Problem - Weekly Blog # 894

Mike Lipper's Blog: We may think we manage time, but time manages us - Weekly Blog # 893

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

 

Copyright © 2008 – 2024

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.