Four Lessons Discussed - Weekly Blog # 877

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Four Lessons Discussed

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 Farmers’ Experience Led to the Crash

Is 1930 a preview of 202x? To set the stage, the 1920s were a period of transition and economic expansion. America and most of the industrial world enjoyed meaningful economic progress spurred on by the encouragement of increased debt. Governments, companies, individuals, and farmers used the resources of others to leverage their assets with increasing debt, fulfilling their perceived needs at ever increasing rates. The lessons of the 50-years before WWI were distant memories.

 

Due to WWI mobilization, women entered the workforce in increased numbers. The returning military found farm work too hard and too poorly paid on the farms. Financial communities, which had extensive experience with debt and leverage, found vast new markets for the financial skills of banks and others. Thus, the missing manpower was replaced by expensive machines and chemicals, which led to farmers owning leveraged machines and farms.

 

The age-old problem with leverage is the cost-price spread abruptly narrows. In a world becoming increasingly more global, international trade becomes the fulcrum-point of the fluctuating cost-price spread. To protect those in the middle from price swings, tariffs and other restrictive measures were introduced.

The US consumer desired ever-increasing amounts of food, with much of it imported from lower cost countries. To protect home-grown crops, additional costs and restrictions were placed on imports. Exporting countries fought back by lowering their prices to a point where domestically produced products could not compete effectively. Consequently, domestic farmers got their elected politicians to impose tariffs on imports, like the Smoot-Hawley tariff that President Hoover was reluctant to do. (It was repealed three years later) Other nations reacted by imposing their own tariffs on US exports, which was a contributing cause for WWII. 

 

What will be the impact of the proposed Reciprocal Tariffs being proposed? Despite what is being said, it seems unlikely consumers will avoid some or more of the cost.

 

Learning from Uncle Warren

This weekend Berkshire Hathaway (*) published its results for the 4th quarter and all of 2024, along with a well thought out discussion. The company has four main revenue sources for the heirs of its shareholders. Berkshire has total or partial ownership of over 180 private companies and a smaller but better-known portfolio of quite large publicly traded companies. They also have an increasingly large portfolio of short-term US Treasuries, which increase in value as interest rates rise.

 

The difference between what their insurance companies charge and their eventual payout is called a “float”. In the most current period all earnings asset categories rose, except for the holdings of the publicly owned securities which declined because of sales. The total portfolio rose and is selling very close to its all-time high. Considering the company announced it is being managed for the benefit of today’s shareholder heirs; it is extremely appropriate to occasionally reduce its near-term market risks. (It is worth noting, the remaining two lessons in this blog suggest caution is warranted.)

(*) Owned in Personal and Client accounts

 

The Leading Mutual Funds Suggest US Risk

Each week I look at over 1500 SEC registered mutual funds, as well as many more in the global world. Usually, a number of different drivers describe the leaders of the week.

 

The list below shows the investment objective assigned to the fund:

Precious Metals Equity           21.04%

Commodities Precious Metals      11.86

International Large-Cap Value     8.60

International Mid-Cap Value       8.54

Commodities Base Metals           8.34

International Large-Cap Growth    8.24

Commodities Agriculture           8.15

Warren Buffet, among others, is concerned that the US government may cause the value of the US dollar to drop.

The year-to-date winners are not investing in the US.

 

“Debt Has Always Been the Ruin of Great Powers. Is the U.S. Next?”

 Above is the title of Niall Ferguson’s article in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal where he introduces Ferguson’s Law, which was crafted in 1767. The law states “that any great power that spends more on debt service than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.” According to the author, debt service includes repayment of debt and defense includes all costs to maintain the military. The US has just passed this milestone, but it would take an extended period to fundamentally break the Ferguson Law.

 

Working Conclusion

Be careful and share your thoughts, particularly if you disagree.

 

 

 

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This Was the Week That Was, But Not What Was Expected - Weekly Blog # 861

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

This Was The Week That Was,

But Not What Was Expected

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

 “Trump Trade”, An Artifact of History

No one really knows which of the new administration’s critical rules and regulations will become law. Both presidential candidates have announced and unannounced wishes, but both are unlikely to get another term. They will have little ability to help various members of Congress win the ’26 or ’28 elections.

 

Unless there is a one-sided sweep of both Houses for the same party, the odds favor majorities in the single digits. While the rest of the world might think Congressional leaders will be able to command political discipline, both parties are split into multiple groups depending on the particular issue. Furthermore, in the Senate there are members who see themselves sitting in the White House after the ’28 elections.  Looking beyond the intramural games of the next four years, there are two elements of news that should be of importance to those of us selecting assets to meet the needs of longer-term investors.

 

The Declining Dollar

The CFA Institute Research & Policy Center conducted a global survey of 4000 CFAs concerning the future value of the US Dollar. The survey was conducted from 15 to 31 of July 2024. They published their findings in a white paper titled “The Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege” (This is what the French President called the dollar years ago.)

 

A supermajority of respondents believe that US government spending is not sustainable. Only 59% of US Treasury investors believe the US can continue to borrow using Treasuries. (I remember there was a time when we created a special class of Treasuries for the Saudi Arabia, with an undisclosed interest rate). Neither of the two Presidential Candidates have announced any plans to reduce the deficit and both are unannounced pro-inflation. The respondents expect the dollar to be replaced by a multipolar currency system no later than fifteen years from now.

 

Some investors already recognize the risk in the dollar. Bank of America’s brokerage firm noted this week that 31% of their volume was in gold and 24% in crypto, as a way to reduce total dependence on the dollar. One long-term investor diversifying his currency risk is Warren Buffett. After doubling his money in five Japanese Trading companies, he is now borrowing money in Yen.

 

Berkshire Hathaway’s 10Q

As a young analyst I became enamored by their financial statements, long before I could afford to buy shares in Berkshire. In the 1960s I felt a smart business school could devote a whole semester to reading and understanding the financial reports of Berkshire. It would teach students about equity investments, bonds, insurance, commodities, management analysis, and how politics impacts investment decisions. (It might even help the professors learn about the real world)

 

On Saturday Berkshire published its third quarter results with a relatively concise press release, which was top-line oriented. As is required by the SEC it also published its 10Q document, which was over fifty pages long. Ten of those pages were full of brief comments on each of the larger investments. This is what hooked me, although I could not purchase most of their investments because they are not publicly traded. Their comments were in some detail, covering sales, earnings, taxes paid, expense trends, and management issues. The comments gave me an understanding of how the real economy is working. (Along the way I was able to become comfortable enough to buy some shares in Berkshire, and it is now my biggest investment.)

 

The latest “Q” showed that in nine months they had raised their cash levels to $288 billion, compared to $130 billion at year-end.  At the same time, they added $50 billion to investments. Perhaps most significant was that they did not repurchase any of their own publicly traded stock. A couple of years ago at a private dinner with the late and great Charley Munger, I asked him if I should value their private companies at twice their carrying value (purchase price + dividends received). Charley counseled me that everything they owned currently was not a good investment. As usual he was correct. In this quarter’s “Q” there were a significant number of investments that declining earnings or lost money. (I still believe they own enough large winners on average where doubling their holdings value would be reasonable.) If one looks at the operations of a number of industrial and consumer product entities, they themselves conduct substantial financial activities in terms of loans and insurance.

 

Is Warren Buffett’s Caution Warranted?

Some stocks have risen so high that they may have brought some gains forward, potentially reducing future gains. One way to evaluate this is to look at the gains achieved by the leading mutual fund sectors: Total Return Performance for the latest 52 weeks are shown below:

 

Equity Leverage       61.16%

Financial Services    46.38%

Science & Tech        44.13%

Mid-Cap Growth        41.28%

Large-Cap Growth      40.30%

 

I don’t expect all to be leaders in the next 52 weeks, as the three main indices (DJIA, SPX, and the Nasdaq Composite) have “Head & Shoulders” chart patterns, which often leads to a reversal.

 

Question: What Do You Think?

 

 

 

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3 PROBLEM TOPICS: Current Market, Portfolios, and Ukraine- Weekly Blog # 779

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

3 PROBLEM TOPICS:

Current Market, Portfolios, and Ukraine

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Current US Stock Market

The views and focus of pundits can be very misleading. Below is a list of some of them and my contrary thoughts for you to consider and react to. In no particular order:

1. The narrow performance premium of stocks over bonds is “ugly”. (To the contrary, it may be a good entry point. Over any reasonable investment period one could envisage a 100% - 1000% gain for equities and/or equity funds. I doubt one could see that in bonds.)
2. The recent announcement of the number of people hired was “bullish”. (Within the release there was the note stating that the number of hours worked declined. When business is bad it is normal for a company to announce cuts in costs before a large layoff. This announcement was for a given middle week in April. At about the same time the NFIB Small Business Hiring Plans Index announced a 15% decline for March (small businesses employ over half of working Americans). The NFIB also showed a widening gap in the number of hours worked between the rank-and-file employees and all others. This may show that businesses can’t find entry level workers wanting to work. Another factor could be the better weather in March and April relative to the first two months. This suggests the rise reported for April was more weather related than from improving business conditions.
3. Almost 90% of the first quarter’s gain came from just 20 stocks. UBS noted that if mega cap growth stocks were deducted from the index, the remaining stocks would only have gained 1.4%. (New “bull markets” are not normally led by the leaders of the last up market. Currently, Large-Cap Growth funds are leading, and small-cap value funds lagging - Tech vs Financial Services.)
4. While the interest spread between two and ten-year Treasuries has narrowed very rapidly to 530 basis points, from 1400 recently. It raises the question of whether the inversion is going to precede a significant recession. The weekly survey of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is often considered a contrary measure by market analysts. In three weeks, the bearish prediction fell 13% points to 35%, with the bullish reading gaining 12% points to 33%. These numbers show how volatile the individual investor is, but it also shows that the bulls have not built a base for a higher market at this moment. (I disagree with the opinion of many professionals that the public is always wrong. I believe that they are mostly wrong at turning points, but generally right over the long-term.)
5. In a period like we are in now, the twin absence of trading capital in the hands of the former floor Specialists and “upstairs” traders is having a significant impact on the security selection of investors. (Look at the declining average performance of mutual funds in the first quarter: Large-Cap Funds +6.71%, Multi-Cap Funds +5.11%, Mid- Cap Funds +1.78%, and Small-Cap Funds +0.50%. This rank order is the reverse leadership position of many past bull markets.
6. The term “book value” should only be used by accountants, never in front of unsuspecting investors. Book value has nothing to do with either useful books or value. It is an accounting term to spread the remaining non written off purchase price recorded on the balance sheet. It has nothing to do with the liquidating value of an asset, or what a knowledgeable unrelated person would pay for the asset. The present or future value of an asset might be of interest to a potential buyer if it is sufficiently discounted for the trouble and bother of actually receiving the assets and liquidating it. 

Constructing Portfolios

With the exception of an entrepreneur singularly focused on a business that it close in value to the total of its assets, the assembly and management of investor money in portfolios is the real art of investing, not buying and selling individual securities.

Most individual investors and some institutions mechanically add and subtract securities from a portfolio. Most others have a single portfolio with some focus or general need. (I believe one should have multiple portfolios rather than just a collection of securities.) Each portfolio should have a narrow focus, often built around the timing and execution of the beneficiary’s needs. I use singular rather than plural terms, even if the timing and cost of the same security is different between accounts. (It could generate significant impact and therefore could be managed differently.)

The biggest mistake most people make is measuring success based solely on the calendar year, because it’s what everyone else does. (I believe accounts should be measured based on the first reasonable date assets will be paid out. There are also other issues to consider, such as the number and extent of down results compared to up results. As the market moves up and down in its own periods the measurement period should likewise be adjusted. To the extent possible, after-tax returns are preferable. If you buy the same security at different prices, each tranche should be measured separately, especially if the price is quite different. Buying a great security late in its rise rather than at the beginning impacts the results of beneficiaries. While the security may be the same, its intended purpose could be different.

I sit on a number of tax-exempt investment committees and try to get my fellow trustees to pick individual measurement periods. If a stream of payments is required for building a new facility, I suggest making the end date slightly before the first payment date, changing that date based on schedule. For annual operating funds, I use the same concept, but with much smaller time periods.

Finally, where possible I like to pick selected mutual funds having similar portfolio characteristics whose management sticks to policies that can responsibly be followed.

 

Ukraine is Just the Beginning, Not the End

We are all horrified by the cruel invasion of Ukraine. We wish the war would end, with the country’s full land being restored. Unfortunately, I believe we will be involved with Ukraine for many years, possibly generations. The unhappy reason for such a fearful statement comes to us from logistics management.

Just like Political “Science” courses, Securities Analysis is taught about the past and briefly hints at the present. One of the main tenants of sound business practice is building reasonable defenses against future problems. One of the largest potential problems facing businesses and countries can be summed up by the change of “Just in Time” production and delivery to “Just in Case”. Until very recently, businesses located the production of critical supplies where it was the cheapest to produce and where rapid transportation could ship goods and services to major customers.

The rise in tensions with China and some other locations has caused the US and others to review from where they will get their critical products and services. While China should not be ignored as either a source of goods or a market for sales. If either were drastically reduced or totally stopped, we would be in serious economic trouble. Currently, there is a mad dash to find supplemental sources of both production and sales. Other Asian countries are being examined, as are Mexico, other Latin American countries, and Africa, among others.

One very rich region I fully expect to play a role is Central Asia. This region contains Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. In addition to supplying the critical rail thruway for China’s “Belt and Road”, the region provides the new Silk Road to connect China’s vast population and resources to Western Europe. The region consists of 61 million people and 1.5 million square miles. With both Russia and China as neighbors, this is an important piece of real estate. Permitting a US Air Base in the region would solve lots of problems in opening up Central Asia. It would provide access through the Caspian Sea and reinforce Ukraine’s interest in the Black Sea. While this will be an expensive addition to accommodate our needs, my guess is we will be there.                                   

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: What To Believe? - Weekly Blog # 778

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Mike Lipper's Blog: We Allow Our Investment Professionals to be Lazy - Weekly Blog # 776

 

 

 

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I Can Be Wrong - Weekly Blog # 749

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

I Can Be Wrong

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

    

 

 

Property of the Territory

As an odds addict, I often make bets prematurely. I am used to being wrong on individual choices but feel comfortable with my weighted choices.

 

The advantage of being wrong is learning from it. As a market-oriented analyst and manager I equate a bear market with a recession.

 

Our clients and I feel more pain when surprised on the downside.

 

In November of ’21 stock price momentum started to slow. This was particularly noted in the growth-oriented NASDAQ market, which hit its historic high that month.

 

Also noted in carefully reading fourth quarter comments from insightful CEOs was a slower quarterly rate of gain vs the prior year. This caution was also noted in early 2022 statements.

 

Much was made of “supply-chain” problems, although it was focused almost exclusively on goods capacity limitations, not services.

 

To me they left out the growing realization that there would be a shortage of competent people to hire. What really caught my eye in the recovery from the pandemic cutbacks was first- and second-line supervisors not being replaced.

 

My conclusion was that leading growth-oriented companies were likely to produce sub-par results for ’22. I did not fully appreciate the goods slowdown impacting the much larger economic services sector.

 

My mistake was labeling the forthcoming environment an oncoming recession. It was clearly derived from stock market price probabilities.

 

A recession is a much broader national and increasingly international phenomena. The accepted definition of a recession results from top-down late-reporting data, with even later corrections.

 

Typically, by the time the academics identify a recession it has already changed, often improved.

 

Politicians choose to focus on the gross economic numbers impacting voters most. Not fully appreciating the indirect impact of market prices on the purchase patterns of almost all voters.

 

I was precisely wrong or premature in labeling the first half of ’22 a recession. Falling stock prices had a direct and indirect impact, probably hurting the average American by about 10%.

 

Current Data Bank of Concerns

• The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.398%, which is higher than both 10 and 30-year Treasuries. Historically this is an inflation predictor.
• Market analysts are concerned about reversal price patterns building in major indices, including the Dow Jones Transportation Index.
• Last week, 80.5% of prices fell on the NYSE, but only 71.4% on the NASDAQ. The latter has been a better predictor than the former, probably because the NASDAQ has more professional investors.
• The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey has a somewhat extreme 50% bearish reading for the next six months, often a contrary indicator.

 

Longer-Term Concerns

• One forecaster believes unemployment will hit 6% and inflation will not decline to 4% by 2024.
• Niall Ferguson of the Hoover Institute believes the “World is sleep walking”, similar to the 1970s but worse. Suggesting that instead going into a recession we will experience a multi-year period of stagflation, with low growth, high inflation, and unemployment.
• My major concern is the lack of good leadership from our highest political and commercial elements throughout the world. Two examples are:
• Annual reports no longer stating employees are their most important asset. (When I sold our data business to Reuters, I told them our most important assets were our clients and our people, not our best available data.) This personality focused leadership is an important contributor to the growth of unions, which is not positive for customers and shareholders.
• The war in Ukraine has demonstrated what I learned in the US Marine Corps, that well led small units can effectively beat a larger force relying on massed manpower.

 

Question: How different do you think 2024 will be than today, and are you structuring for it?

 

 

 

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https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/08/4-5-changes-disruptions-faulty-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/08/mikelippers-monday-morning-musings.html

 

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/08/time-to-prune-weekly-blog-746.html

 

 

 

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Investors, Politicians, & Other Children - Weekly Blog # 745

 

 

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Investors, Politicians, & Other Children

 

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

    

 

 

Most investors, politicians, and other children act as if they are the only people that have had to deal with behavioral challenges. However, there is very little in life that is totally new, only the packaging has changed.

 

For example, how should one measure progress, and should it cause action? Most of us have some level of confidence in reported numbers, although numbers are an abstraction of a reality, not reality itself.

 

We are all counters from an early age, and since tradeable money was created have tended to count many of our successes and occasional failures in monetary terms.

 

The problem is the value of money is in the eyes of the beholder. One hundred million Confederate dollars has very little, if any value today.

 

Those dollar bills were on the losing side of a painful war, but we have been on the losing side of an age-old battle since birth. That depreciating value is called inflation.

 

The crux of the problem is the creator of this vehicle of exchange is also one of its largest users. Furthermore, the ruler of the mint or printing press is in a position of strength due to support from the right people. The easiest way to keep their loyalty is to pay them. In imperial Rome it was called “bread and circuses”.

 

In many Roman cities and towns, the amphitheater was larger than the nearby fortress. These were the entertainment centers for the populace who had enough food to eat due to an efficient agricultural system with well-engineered aqueducts.

 

I find it revealing that today’s name for giving money indirectly to the population is derived from a Latin word for stimulus. In earlier days it was called a bribe.

 

When a long-distant trader, Marco Polo, worked along the long Silk Road (1271-1295), the most advanced society was the Chinese empire. It developed gun powder and later developed paper money. Not surprisingly the empire had a large government, with examinations for jobs.

 

From my standpoint, smuggling silkworms back to Europe created a market-based exchange with a sounder form of money, especially when compared to their traditionally weakened currency. This is the way he delt with inflation.

 

In the thirteenth century the Europeans were somewhat protected against inflation due to small indigenous silver mines whose content went into their currency. This lasted into the next century and was replaced by gold and silver produced at low wages in Latin America, starting about 200 years of inflation.

 

When the steady stream of gold dried up the overseas colonies of England and other European countries became too expensive to maintain without substantial taxes. This is the reason a political group in England was not disappointed with the result of The American Revolution.

 

Confidence in the Future is Low

There are a plethora of signs showing this lack of a defined future:

• What are yields on US Treasuries saying? 2-year Treasuries are yielding 3.25%, 10-year Treasuries 2.84%, and 30-year Treasuries 3.07%. The 2-year is inverted relative to the 10 and 30-years!!

•  All 3 of the AAII survey predictions for the next 6 months are in the 30-39 % range.

• While 53% of the DJIA companies were winners for the week, the DJIA lost value in aggregate points. By comparison, only 40% of the companies in the Transportation index were winners.

 

• The JOC-ECRI industrial price index dropped 5.15% year over year.

 

• Exchange traded equity funds continued to suffer redemptions, led by growth and value funds.

 

• Liz Ann Sonders, the highly respected chief strategist from Charles Schwab is not bullish because she has not seen the market capitulate, as would normally be the case near the end of a bear market.

 

My Views

I have been searching for reasons to be optimistic for our long-term investment accounts, as after every bear market there is a bull market.

 

I agree with Richard Bernstein that bull markets don’t start with narrow leadership.

 

I believe economic and market cycles are not just number exercises, which you might be led to believe after reading columns from the various pundits.

 

I believe cycles are critically needed to address severe imbalances, not just trading opportunities. In previous blogs I have listed troubling demographics quality of schooling, healthcare, military strength, and leadership.

 

As I do not see these imbalances being addressed, I am afraid we will experience one or more recessions. There is a popular hope we will avoid a recognized recession, or only suffer a mild one.

 

If that were to happen, it would not likely sufficiently address our problems. I have no doubt our politicians can continue to produce a smoke screen to hide the issues. The current proposed legislation is an example of this, almost guaranteeing a major recession in a couple of years.

 

If that were to happen, much like during Paul Volcker’s tenure where he had two recessions, there would be substantial risk of a needed recession with very high interest rates.

 

I look forward to a new bull market with some answers to our problems, even after that experience. Our families will need one.

 

Please comment.

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/07/weather-market-economic-and-political.html

 

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/07/beware-of-cheap-seek-fair-slowly-weekly.html

 

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/07/time-to-be-contrary-weekly-blog-741.html

 

 

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Time to be Contrary? - Weekly Blog # 741

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Time to be Contrary?

 

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

   

 

 

Inconclusive Week

Few US stock market participants considered the news of the week as a reason to significantly change their current investment position.

Bear markets result from market transactions based on investment outlooks, which are sometimes wrong. Recessions are economic downturns. Most often bear markets lead to recessions, but not always.

Nothing very good or bad came to investor’s attention. The news about employment, inflation, interest rates, and politics, slightly encouraged people’s biases but did not lead to any reversal of opinions.

Two things a historian might add are: 

• A growing view that the oncoming recession will be slight and probably quick. (Interest rates from 2 to 30 years are remarkably flat for US Treasuries.) 
• A quick, shallow recession leaves little time and momentum to correct multiple imbalances in our society.

If we are not going to address our problems we should focus on the recovery, which may be shorter than in the immediate past. With that possibility in mind, one might examine some contrary thoughts concerning various portfolios.

 

Understanding Contrarian Thoughts

Contrarians probably recognize that no single school of thinking produces winners all the time. Furthermore, contrarians are not smarter than those more comfortable alongside the perceived majority of “smart” people.

The differences between the two types of thinking are as follows:

1. The majority extrapolate current trends or views, whereas contrarians expect change, even if it goes back to some prior period.
2. When the majority are correct in their predictions the returns are normally relatively small compared to those earned by contrarians. Even with the majority being correct more often than contrarians, over many cycles they will earn less.
3. As neither type of investor totally avoids mistakes, losses need to be considered. When the majority wants to exit it will have lots of company, which can depress exit prices. Since contrarians don’t invest in popular issues, they typically don’t pay extravagant prices. Consequently, their exit prices are usually closer to their entry prices. The majority loses dollars, the contrarian loses time.  

 

Summer Contrarian Thoughts

Current markets appear to rotate more on changes in sentiment than on reported financial and economic results. We won’t officially know for some time whether we are entering a recession, although many feel we are already in one. We clearly have been in a bear market decline from the peaks in January of ’22 or November of ’21.

It is quite possible the recent decline in retail goods sales is the result of growing recession chatter.

This blog is written for long-term investors, not short-term traders. Traders and investors are often on different sides of a trade, with each being right based on their own period and performance standards.

For the moment, regardless of your own point of view, assume we are progressing through a bear market into an economic recession of some length and depth. Nevertheless, we believe that at some point in the future we will be in a rising market and an expanding global economy.

Our task is to select winning investments for a lengthy period or periods. A good place to start our search is the performance periods ended June 30, 2022. As a contrarian one would reverse the performance ranking order of various investments, including mutual funds and individual securities. 

This process creates a search list, not a performance roster. Not all securities reverse their relative performance rankings as they move from one market cycle to the next. The critical research depends on finding new reasons the security in question is appropriate for the change in conditions in the new cycle. A few will.

 

An Analysis of Market Price or Market-Cap Indices can be Helpful

The Dow Jones indices are weighted by market price, whereas the S&P is weighted by the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the stock price. While the publishers make the original name selections, the individual weight of a stock is influenced by the movement of the stock price for the Dow indices, and the price multiplied by shares outstanding for the S&P.

They are both popularity measures and during periods of up or down trends their movement is determined by the unexplained actions of market participants, not direct investment judgement.

We see the same thing at racetracks using the pari-mutual odds system.  Winning horse backers are rewarded based on the ratio of the aggregate amount bet on the winner compared to all other bets, less the “take” of the track and taxes. The horse bet on most is called the favorite. All other entries will make more if they win, sometimes a great deal more than successful bettors on the winning favorite. Historically, favorites win around one-third of the time, thus those who bet only on favorites must lose in aggregate over time.

This is not necessarily true for index investors because markets go up most of the time due to dividends and expectations. However, this is not always true as in the first half of ’22, where the major stock indices were sharply down for the period. The S&P 500 index is made up of eleven component sectors and only energy stocks rose, representing just 2% of the index.

One problem for the S&P 500 index is the way market capitalization works. Of the 11 sectors, 8 performed worse than equal weighted sectors. Thus, in aggregate the weighted judgment in the market was wrong for this time-period, just like most favorites at the track.

I am not suggesting the market is always wrong, but it can be wrong some of the time. My investment suggestion is, if you select an index fund to participate in an up market, a weighted index fund makes sense on average. If you are more risk averse and feel more pain from periodic losses than from a similar gain, an equal weighted index fund is better. An equal weighted index may also be a bit safer if the current market trend has been going up for some time.

 

Is your Income or Spending Influenced Beyond the Border?

Since Adam Smith published “The Wealth of Nations” in 1776, I believe almost everyone has been influenced by different price levels, the availability of products, and opportunities influencing what we spend and earn.

Scott Galloway, a NYU Stern Professor, noted that this is in part due to individuals with foreign backgrounds coming into our country. He said “Almost half of Fortune 500 companies were founded by American immigrants or their children and more than half of unicorns (private companies worth more than $1 billion) are founded by immigrants.

While the data is not transparent, it is reasonable to believe that at least 25% of US reported corporate profits are sourced from our exports or foreign operations. Thus, I believe that for long-term investment portfolios to generate the level of income needed to buy all the items that we import now or in the future, we must invest a portion of the portfolio abroad.

If a sound long-term multi-generational portfolio is to be well balanced and provide income for consumption, it should probably be invested in both growth and value stocks. The latter’s time horizon is probably shorter than growth investments and more likely to be domestically oriented. (Due to legal and tax issues)

A reasonable approach is to look for more international representation in the growth portions of the portfolio. This is buttressed by the better math and science scores at secondary schools overseas.

The value of the dollar has been rising, not because things are getting better here, but because of local economic problems elsewhere. As a contrarian this seems to be an opportunity to buy cheaper foreign currency instruments for a long-term portfolio. Long-term investment opportunities in companies doing business in Asia should be considered due to demographics, discipline, and supportive governments.

 

A Contrarian View on Private Investing Now

One lesson from both the track and investing is that a crowd of new participants signaling excessive enthusiasm can lead to a bubble. A sign of this risk building is highlighted in a recent Wall Street Journal article headlined “Private equity Poaches Talent to Chase Wealthy”. Wonderful returns have been generated from investing in private equity and somewhat less in private debt. My concern is that practically every financial services organization is offering services to the private market. We are already seeing private companies delay going public to get higher prices through constant money raising. At some point prices will reach a peak and collapse. Successful contrarians try to not be late and avoid waiting for bargain prices.

 

Please Share Any Agreements or Disagreements

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/07/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

 

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/06/switching-prime-focus-weekly-blog-739.html

 

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/06/are-markets-getting-too-far-ahead.html

 

 

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