The Rhyme Curse -Weekly Blog # 838

 

         

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

The Rhyme Curse

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

   

       

   

^{Analysts, lawyers, and accountants spend much of their careers relying on history to protect themselves and their organizations. I have often said, cut an investment analyst and a historian will bleed. Mark Twain is incorrectly identified with the following quote “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”  To select the most useful rhymes, you should select from all past observations as an “AI” search would do, rather than just using the most useful observations. For example, in reviewing the number of years between the S&P 500 “all-time highs”, including 1929. There were 15 such occurrences, but they were of different durations: 25, 6, 5, 3, and 1-year durations). The most common period was one year, with 6 out of 15 periods being 1-year durations. In attempting to pick a relevant number of years, you should look at other factors. I would pick periods of rising government deficits. The center of this array is 5-6 years, suggesting a cyclical recession and possible periods of stagflation. A longer duration would imply a structural recession.}

 

^{Historical Inputs of Relevance Today}

^{In the 1890s US Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahon wrote on geopolitics and pointed out that Great Britain, a geographically small nation, was the real leader of the world due to its naval and commercial fleets. Both Germany and Japan got the message, which was fundamental in their preparation for WWI and WWII. China once had the largest fleet in the world, before they destroyed it themselves.}

 

^{The result of this seminal work was that once Germany was able to send its battleships through the Baltic to destroy British warships, WWI became a certainty. Prior to that the German General Staff, thru visits and other studies, had focused on the campaigns of General Stonewall Jackson in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, demonstrating the power of using mobility against fixed forces. After it’s treatment as an “ally” during the signing of the Peace treaty and the US curtailing its oil supply, Japan recognized the need for sea power, an issue which led to Pearl Harbor. Bringing the lesson and its probable impact on our future up to date. China has the largest naval fleet in the world today, and it is still growing while the US’s fleet declines.  China has almost half of the world’s shipbuilding capacity.}

 

^{Preparing for the Future}

^{The Capital Group, one of the great mutual fund and institutional investment managers, has entered into a joint venture with KKR to produce and sell hybrid funds. JP Morgan Chase, an organization that internally studies many possible futures, is prepared for interest rates between 2% and 8%. Their CFO is prepared for the tailwinds currently helping them to switch to headwinds.}

 

^{Many Different US Markets}

^{The only US Diversified Equity mutual fund sector to rise during the week through Thursday was large-cap growth funds, which was echoed by tech sector funds. While the NASDAQ advances volume rose for 4 days in the week, the NYSE Composite Index only advanced for one day. Low volume has led to less volatility.}

 

^{What Many are Not Prepared for}

^{The average age of world government leaders is 62, with 19% in their 70s and 5% in their 80s. The median age for US senators is 65, with the House member median age being 52. The average CEO is 56. While I hope all of our leaders are in good health and remain so, I suspect the emotional strain and lifestyle choices are incidental hurdles. As they age, they often become more conservative and prefer the old way of doing things.}

 

^{Investors are not prepared for change. I am currently noticing an increase in the rate of top spot replacements. Investors should therefore be prepared for leadership changes, which almost always result in younger and more vibrant leaders. There are other changes few are ready for, like a change in the Fed and other regulatory bodies, or a change in policies. I suspect there will be changes in private investments and how they deal with the public. As usual, low-risk equity and debt not designed to survive either stagflation or a major recession will come in late the.}

 

^{Let me know what investors need to be prepared for.}

 

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Prepare to be Bullish, Long-Term - Weekly Blog # 804

 

 Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Prepare to be Bullish, Long-Term

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

  

(N.B. in classical documents was a Latin warning for the reader to be prepared for elements of disbelief. Subscribers are likely to disagree with some or all points made. Nevertheless, they should be digested, even though they might question your firmly held beliefs. Some of these thoughts might even reinforce your own beliefs. In medieval courts there was often a paid clown or “fool” who might cleverly utter some thoughts that no one else would dare say. Perhaps, this is the role of this blog.)

 

Focus on the Finish Line

Almost all commentary about the market, economy, and individual prices without attempting to identify the end period outcome is lacking. One lesson from the racetrack was the order of finish from a particular race. The payoff parade was the actual running of the race, not any of guessing, analysis, or handicapping bettors did before the race.

As both an investor and a registered advisor, I attempt to make a guess at either the actual or relative return after an extended period. The minimum time period I am comfortable using to make an investment decision is five years. One reason I pick five years is a lesson learned at the track about the element of surprise, or “racing luck”, in any given race. In longer races there is greater opportunity to recover from a surprise than in shorter races. The second reason to focus on a five-year period was highlighted by the communist party. (I suspect they copied various business plans in the 19th century by instituting a 5 year political term.)  Many CEOs also negotiate a five-year term with their board of directors for incentive compensation. 

 

2028!?

Most money in the securities market is invested to meet retirement obligations or long-term capital expenditure needs. Those responsible for attempting to meet these needs should be judged by their performance over longer periods.

 

While you can never clearly identify the type of period we are presently in, I think it is the responsibility of the investor to make his/her best guess, as the type of market will probably impact the results.

 

2022 Change

While no single event is likely to change the direction of society or the economy, there is often a headline occurrence which can serve as a useful label. The single change that became a turning point for me was the COVID Pandemic. The Black Plague occurred centuries ago, and there were serious pandemics in the Spanish Flu in the1920s. However, for the most part pandemics in the modern era have been rare.

 

The reaction by the US government, led by the teachers’ union, materially changed the progress of society. Focusing exclusively on the securities markets, 2022 was a down year, due to curtailment of work and formal education. Governments rarely let a crisis go to waste and by 2023 government expenditures and curtailment of selected industries had enhanced inflation. Appropriate parallels were made with FDR’s elongation of a recession into a depression. 

 

First 9 Months of 2023

Perhaps it is ironic that little New Zealand’s central bank was the first to call for a 2% inflation goal and have its current indices generate a minus in front of them. The US may not be far behind, with Real Estate -5.4%, Consumer Staples -4.76%, Healthcare -4.09%, and most concerning, the S&P 500 equal weighted up only +1.79 %.

 

Where’s the Upside?

Almost all life is cyclical, with the largest gains resulting after major declines. The longer the current period of stagflation, the longer the hidden actions of building future earnings power will be at work.

 

On a longer-term basis, continued federal government deficits are a symptom of important twin deficits. Capable management throughout society, and the inability of the educational system to produce students suitable for current jobs. From pre-K to PhD, schools are producing unmotivated students who are ignorant of the world and irresponsible, primarily due to the views of their instructors.

 

Parents and employers are slowly exerting pressures for change, while businesses are evolving to meet the current needs of their customers. A non-recommended example is ADP, a company in our private financial services fund. The company started 74 years ago as a payroll service business. Today, with over one million clients, they have evolved into a Human Capital Management business providing a much larger contribution to their clients. 

 

The Public Accounting Oversight Board has stated that they are finding an alarming number of errors in audits. We are finding the same trend in providing many services to clients, which presents an opportunity. One other opportunity might be the mismatching of expected industrial demand for “modern” cars, data centers, and equipment to change the climate. To support these efforts there is a need for large quantities of high-grade steel production and there are no provisions to expend production.

 

Savings, possibly the biggest contributor to the value of stock prices in 2028 will be in the hands of a new generation of political leaders and managements of profits and non-profits. Hopefully they will make better decisions than in the recent past.

 

Please share with me your thoughts.

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Selling: Art & Risks, Current & Later - Weekly Blog # 803

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Where is the Stock Market Going Next? - Weekly Blog # 680

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Where is the Stock Market Going Next?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                          

The job of the analyst is to consider alternatives, which enables the owners of capital to make decisions concerning their separate needs and time frames. As an analyst, it is not our job to pass judgment on the proper path forward. Our task is to guess the most likely direction in terms of the most favorable risk/reward ratio. 

Combining my trained instinct as a US Marine Officer and a thoroughbred amateur racetrack handicapper, I look for better than average risk/return opportunities by avoiding massed crowds. I do this by observing what I see around me and putting together a portfolio of reasonably low risk of loss with an acceptable reward. I see market sensitivities through the following lenses: 

Stock Markets Moving in Opposite Directions 

In the latest week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose +2.67% and the S&P 500 +1.23%. The NASDAQ fell for a second week by-1.51%. The percentage of the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) hit a new high of 26% vs. 11% for the NASDAQ. According to the Dow Jones Standard & Poor’s indices, the best performing stocks were US Select Dividend stocks +3.48%. Internet Services stocks –5.3% were the worst.  Perhaps the best encapsulation of this lack of confidence was the stock price movement of T. Rowe Price (*), which reached a high of $189.42 on Friday vs its low of $179.29 on Monday. The other four days of the week produced higher volumes than Friday, which declined 40% from its peak volume on Tuesday. 

 

(*) Held in private financial services fund and personal accounts.

Mutual Funds Capture the Views of Both Individual and Institutional Investors 

For the latest 52 weeks, the average US Diversified Equity Fund (USDE) gained +60.1%, with the average S&P 500 index fund being up +47.59%. Just seeing those results suggest caution in anticipating large gains for the next 52 weeks. In the current week, the average USDE was down -1.06%, while the average Commodity fund was up +3.01%. Clearly a different assessment of the impact of rising inflation on the general stock market. 

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Studied Views

Their non-partisan view is that by the middle of the following decade (2030s), the size of interest payments will be larger than current deficits. Paying interest on interest is not a sound financial plan. The Congressional Budget Office is also on record saying private economic forecasters have a bad record. This was before Friday’s miss on the expected surge in jobs. 

Eyeball Observations 

We visited The Mall at Short Hills on the Saturday before the US celebration of Mothers’ Day. My niece noted that there were only a few less empty store locations than about a month ago. Nevertheless, the crowd approached a Christmas season level, with one major difference, shoppers were not carrying a lot of labelled shopping bags. They must have been purchasing smaller items. I suspect they were spending their government “Roman circus” or “bribes” from the stimulus payments before prices rose further. While not many looked at Saturday’s Wall Street Journal (WSJ), those who did could see that 85% of the weekly prices shown were rising. 

The Political Game 

The only “blood sport” played in Washington DC is for the next election.  For a some aging politicians, the 2022 congressional elections leading up to the 2024 Presidential election will be their “Last Hurrah”. There are some that see George Orwell’s classic “1984” introduction of “Newspeak”, its purpose was to hide intent. For example, “War is Peace” or “Ignorance is Strength”. Today they might use “Fair Share of Taxes” for capital redistribution. 

The Federal Reserve

For those who still believe the Federal Reserve determines short-term interest rates, it is wise to understand the political position of the so-called independent governors of the Fed. The Fed is probably the only central bank that directly answers to the nation’s political power. In our case the President appoints the governors but has difficulty exercising control. Except, votes were unanimous when both the Yellen and Powell boards raised interest rates. (Various Presidents and members of Congress have tried to reduce the theoretical “independence” of the Fed.) 

In the “tug of war” between the Fed and elected politicians, the key signposts are interest rates. Low interest rates are favored by borrowers, including by a few past Presidents. Savers want interest rates high enough to cover both inflation and the incipient cost of defaults. The political problem facing politicians is that financial markets recognize government interest rates do not compensate for future inflation. Consequently, private sector rates have adjusted upward and the foreign exchange value of the US dollar has declined against a few of the available alternatives. Under an activist government at the Treasury, the SEC and CFTC can expect regulatory attacks to force a closing of the gap between government and private market interest rates. This battle is likely to lead to troubled markets.

Currently, with lots of enthusiasm in the markets, please be careful with your investments. The winning odds are coming down and reducing the risk/reward ratio, probably for a year.  

What do you think?

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https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/the-other-side-weekly-blog-677.html

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Our Arrogance Hurts Our Investments

Today’s blog may be uncomfortable or argumentative for some.

This is the season of arrogance. With one US political convention over, the next one about to start, and a major hoped-for policy speech from the chair of the US Federal Reserve, each event characterized by speakers proclaiming that they are correct on all issues. At no point during these polemics did any of the speakers ever admit that they have been wrong in the past and that their espoused policies could produce any negative impacts along with their expected good results. Beyond the US, various other politicians are singing the same song and will do so until this election cycle ends in 2013. Think about it, with the exception of our spouses and significant others, do we know of anyone including ourselves who has not made mistakes and is likely to make at least some mistakes in the future? To deny the possibility of human error on our own part is the height of arrogance to me.

We should not assume too much guilt for our individual heights of arrogance; politicians of all types are much more professional in their arrogance. As distinct from the rare statesman or stateswoman, the self-interests of a politician require observing the audience closely. When there is a movement or a high profile issue, they quickly get to the head of the parade and become the loudest advocates as to where the crowd wants to go. People want to ignore deficits, the critical threat to our capital and possibly our well-being and safety.

The imminent threat

The growing deficits with spending in excess of government revenues leads almost inexhaustibly into transferring wealth from private domestic owners to the government and foreign lenders. The transfer of wealth is unlikely to create new wealth through productive investment, but instead goes into immediate consumption. This is precisely where the second stage of our arrogance comes into play. We are all consumers of government provided services, including protection from foreign and domestic enemies, transportation subsidies, healthcare, and useful regulation. Much of what we consume is involuntary such as military and police power. But as individuals we feel entitled to these services. (We thought we paid for them which often not the case entirely.) This is what we think we are “due.” However, many feel that the money the government spends on others because of their unsafe life styles and similar protections and benefits are wasteful and create the shortfall in government revenues. We arrogantly defend our own expenditures and deprecate money spent on others (perhaps less deserving).

Where does our arrogance come from?

From the moment of our birth to the very present, we live in a competitive world. We compete for the attention of our loving parents. In sports we compete for position and rank. In business we compete in this “dog eat dog world.” This week Newsweek published a list of the 25 most stressful colleges. (I am not endorsing the magazine’s methodology or the conclusions that the graduates from these top 25 highly selective colleges will perform the best in life.) What I found of personal interest is that in the case of nine of the colleges, our family or close friends attended or are senior officers. This result gives me an insight as to why so many that are close to me are so intense. They have been trained through the process of generating stress to be strong in their opinions. I suspect that this kind of training in civilian colleges mirrors the stressful training in the military which also produces intense and we hope aggressive military leaders.

Solutions

When arrogance meets arrogance nothing gets decided as long as there are two or more left standing. What is desperately needed is to attack the low-level of efficiency in large areas of spending. This is difficult and requires important levels of good will on all sides. If we can put a vehicle on Mars we should be able to solve our traffic problems on Earth. Think of the economic benefit to society if commuting and shopping times were greatly reduced! I suspect the use of iPads at an early age could well free teachers’ time to instruct and to bring learning into the home so that parents can participate alongside their children. We also need to have sufficiently stable tax and administrative rules that permit businesses to confidently plan expansion. There are many other ways that we can use our talents to make and spend money more efficiently.

Arrogance and my portfolio

The most dangerous portfolio is one managed out of arrogance. There are far too many individual and institutional investors who have predicted the investment future and will only act when the present conditions meet their perceived future. They could eventually be right, but I doubt it. Over the years I have been blessed with many private conversations with some of the best equity managers in the world. What has struck me about these conversations is that most of the time these “fishermen” wanted to discuss the ones that got away. Often there was a discussion on what mistakes they made and how they have modified their investment behavior. If the great can learn, then I think we can all learn if we are not too arrogant.

Where to find the less arrogant

One of the worst things that Fortune magazine and other media did was to be the first to rank companies on aggregate sales.  Sales rank alone is not a particularly good measure for investment or even job opportunity. Nevertheless, large companies often quote with pride their sales rank and mindful of the list, possibly consider acquisitions more favorably. Bigger is not always better. (A study of the Newsweek 25 stressful colleges also demonstrates this principle.) Bigger does mean more people and higher compensation for senior executives. Often the leadership of large companies become isolated. As demonstrated by politicians around the world, the more isolated the leader becomes, the easier it is to become arrogant. Large companies also attract more media attention which gives their leadership more opportunities to pontificate and lock themselves into arrogant positions. Further, with so many ETF type products in the marketplace the chance for breakaway performance for a mammoth company is somewhat less. For these and other reasons we would want most portfolios of funds to have a few reasonably concentrated Small Cap funds managed by experienced portfolio managers who are not arrogant. For the more venturesome, investing in small companies internationally may be rewarding but stressful.

What do you think?

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Two Levels of Investing: For Progress and for Preservation

Wealthy individuals and governments face similar problems dealing with today’s and tomorrow’s issues. One of the major tools for dealing with these issues is through wise and contemplative investments. Eventually, choices have to be made that will result in major influences to future actions of the general population as well as to those near and dear to us. While the processes to reach critical investment decisions by governments/politicians and those of wealth are similar, the advisors to the decision makers are different as well as the critical time frames. Today’s blog will seek to initiate discussions as to the investment implications for both sets of long-term investors.

The big picture

There is hardly any government in the world, no matter at what level, that is truly popular. Governments are tolerated because the various political forces, be it in the ruling family or other power bases, cannot find much better alternatives. Those in power, unless they are truly statesmen or stateswomen, want to stay in power whether or not they have completed their perceived missions. In effect, they are striving for preservation of power. (For some wealthy, this requirement translates to preservation of capital.) Both governments and individuals are prisoners of past decisions, made by ourselves and others. These prior decisions force us to deal with situations as they are, not what we would like them to be. Only governments that are in a constant state of surplus are not in the deficit production and control business. The whole legitimizing concept of government is that individuals are willing to give up certain actions and other assets in exchange for a third party providing required services. The deficit creation comes from our collective desire not to pay full price for the services acquired. The way the political process works is that one can stay in power by promising to provide more services to more people. Just raising revenues either through taxes or fees, in many cases is similar to pouring oil on a fire; it just leads to more expenses. The sudden cessation of spending, some call it austerity, can panic a society into massive curtailment of discretionary spending, which in turn could produce lower tax revenues. From our provincial vantage point here in the US, this is what we perceive in Europe and Japan.

In the US we see a different pattern, where governments are laying off and/or not hiring workers at the same time that the private sector is ever so slowly adding jobs. Having had to deal with corporate and institutional cutbacks, I recognize that most of the time layoffs at the low end do not produce enough savings to bring the books into balance. Only when some of the senior executives and whole departments are made redundant can sufficient savings be generated. While this is painful in the private and non-profit sectors, it is almost impossible to meaningfully accomplish in government. For example, when a senior employee of the State of New Jersey receives notice of being laid off, he/she can “bump off” (replace) a more junior employee almost anywhere within the state government. Yes, there is a decline in total salaries, but the state is stuck with the senior’s productivity or lack thereof. We have not yet begun to shrink the number of cabinet departments or members of various legislative bodies. Nevertheless, in the US, we are doing something to recognize the deficit problems mostly at the state level. This is being driven by the legal requirement that most of our states must produce a balanced budget. From an investment point of view, this could suggest that a number of our states could be more reliable credit risks than our federal government. This abhorrence of owning most federal debt is reinforced by the belief that it is only a matter of time until the US will join other countries in debasing their currency/debts through inflation. Further, I wonder whether all governments will lose some of their attraction as counterparties in a commercial transaction. I suspect that some governments will try to get out of paying their trade obligations in full and on a timely basis. Thus I am approaching a view that the corporations that have large government contracts should carry a lower valuation than a pure corporate counterparty.

The important picture for the wealthy

With the possible exception of the pharaohs, most wealthy have shown an interest in how their worldly goods are passed on to various heirs. I have written about this topic in my book, MONEYWISE (St. Martin’s Press). Today, I am returning to the critical discussion of multi-generational wealth transfer using a Linkedin Group to promote discussion, and as a resource for all who wish to think about and contribute their thoughts.

After observing families up close and personal as well as from afar, I can say that there is no single expert on all of the aspects of transferring wealth to your heirs. But a number of different kinds of experts are needed to give critical advice to the source of significant wealth, often called the grantor.

Most wills and trusts are developed with the initial assistance of competent attorneys with lots of trusts and estate experience. Their main function is to develop the document that captures the intent of the grantor as nearly as possible. Unfortunately, this is where many people end their search for advice. Tax accountants familiar with federal and state tax laws and regulations are essential, particularly for the wealthy with numerous and complex assets. Further, those who have assets outside of their home country will need competent local accountants and lawyers in each location of the wealth. Again, all too many wealthy individuals stop their transfer thinking process here. In my opinion, there are five other experts that are needed. Future blog discussions will address each expert need in detail.

1. The first expert required is someone wise enough to evaluate the current potential heirs as to their needs, prudence and experience in handling investment activities. As difficult as this task is, they or their successors need to update their views as various heirs mature, marry, divorce, get permanently sick, and leave their own estates and possibly trusts.
   
   
2. The next expert is the supervisor of the administration of complex instruments and relationships. Details that are not properly executed can thwart the intent of the grantor. The ability to supervise is particularly critical in this era of mergers of law firms, accounting firms, banks and trust companies.
   
   
3. Many wealthy believe that they have obligations to their definition of society, and at the same time do not want to make some or all of their other heirs too wealthy and destroy their fruitful life styles. In this case an expert is needed to review not just requests from various charities, but also their operations and leadership
   
   
4. The next to last expert needed is one that can appropriately make corrections for unexpected changes including any of the heirs, supporting experts, laws and regulations. I have often seen in beautifully drawn, long-term trusts, some need to adjust the then-new reality that was not in the mind of the grantor when he/she approved the document. Too often the only recourse to get changes are the courts who will be guided by the written law and the specific trust language, not the current cast of characters and current thinking as to the natures of well-being, investment structure changes, etc.
   
   
5. The final person that is needed for a successful wealth transfer plan is the investor advisor. Actually he/she should be involved all the way along the process. The grantor needs advice as to what is going to be the composition of the transferred assets which may include operating and financial liabilities. Often investment organizations want you to put all the money in one big pool and have each heir get a designated slice at a specific time. This is the easiest way to administer the pot of wealth. It may not be the best as different heirs, including charities have different needs for current income, “real” income, tax adjusted income, long-term capital production, collateral for other obligations, etc.

Wealthy families around the world have these challenges in common. Through the mechanism of a Linkedin group titled Multi-Generational Wealth Transfer, I hope to explore many of the aspects of successful wealth transfer, and respond to your questions and comments. My goal is to assist in the optimum multi-generational wealth transfer.
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