Bear Markets & Recessions, Not Inevitable - Weekly Blog # 735

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Bear Markets & Recessions, Not Inevitable

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This Week’s Rally in Bear Market

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Popularity Unnerving to Contrarian

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

No Absolute Law Governs Markets+Economies

The time series movement of markets & economies are not controlled by scientific law, much to the annoyance of quantitative analysts and pundits. Statistically, the minute-by-minute or day-by-day are both random, and reactive to the thoughts of swing factions. Ever since products and services have changed hands there have been trends of rising and falling prices, although there is a fundamental difference between markets and economies. 

Markets move on both real and rumored transactions, whereas economies move on the actions of participants and government forces. One critical difference is that markets move without much attention to those who are not active, while economies attempt to induce non-participants to take a more active role. Both market and economic/political pundits react to very current information, trying to get ahead of directional changes. Most major moves of 10% or more are due to radical confidence changes resulting from the recognition of long-term trends of imbalances.

Implications of Latest Data

1. While the bond yield curve is rising for maturities of up to 5 years, it is quite flat in the 5-30 year periods. (The bond market believes inflation is an intermediate problem, which will be solved by the end of the next presidential term.)
2. The most current economic data shows a very mixed picture, as indicated below:

1. Personal Income +2.61%
2. Personal Savings Rate Change -65%
3. Residential Investment -4.38%
4. Baltic Dry Cargo +3.27%
5. Inventory/Sales Ratio 0.79%
6. CPI +8.24%, PPI +15.68%
7. Broker Call Rate 0.95% vs 0.12% a year ago. (The cost of liquidity is going up, reacting to risk and availability.)
8. Both AAII measures are extreme: Bullish 19.8%, Bearish 55.3% (Bearish was 59.4% on 4/28)
9. Productivity -0.6%, which means +7.2% in labor costs
10. 5th consecutive semester college enrollment, -4.1% for all and 6.5% for blacks.

Equity Market Inputs

1. Only 3 of 121 equity oriented taxable mutual fund peer groups were down for the week. The biggest decline was for the average short- oriented fund -5.97%. The other two declines were less than 1%. This is an extreme reading for the week, suggesting an extreme rally in a bear market.
2. Stocks listed on the NYSE are doing better than the growth- oriented NASDAQ: New High/New Low for the NYSE 88/36 and 49/113 for the NASDAQ. In terms of advances/declines shares traded for the week, the NYSE had more than 7x  vs 4x for the NASDAQ. Indicative of a switch away from presumed growth and/ greater public participation in the rally.

Contrarian Concerns

Numerous brokers, advisers, and portfolio managers have become much more cautious, led by customers worried about a recession this calendar year. (As the recent second report of first quarter GDP confirmed a decline, reinforcing the first report, it probably means two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is now in place for a recession.) While corporations are publicly maintaining bullish earnings views, shoppers and stores are reporting early signs of cutbacks, both in spending and downgrading to more essential needs. Inventories are high relative to sales, which will probably be serially cleared through discounts. 

Some contrarians have been warning of a bear market/recession for more than a year and appreciate their views moving from fringe to almost center stage. However, if investors become bearish and start selling before the “official” declaration of either a stock priced bear market or a recession based on GDP, they will reduce the eventual magnitude of the decline and forgo the opportunity to participate in a major future reversal. 

This is somewhat like the racetrack, where an early bettor spots a long-shot bet that makes sense, but sees just before post time the odds on his choice decline caused by increased participation of the “smart-money crowd”. While the long-shot bettor is complemented by others agreeing with his/her handicapping skills, winning payouts will be reduced by sharing their winnings with more people.

What are the Imbalances Triggering a Decline?

As we never fully know why people do anything, we must rely on circumstantial evidence and accept that some identified elements may have caused people to act in a way that contributed to the decline. The following are the imbalances I perceive that may contribute to the decline:

For the Economy

1. In the end, all collapses are due to excessive debt on credit terms that are too loose. From what is visible, the main culprit around the world this time are the works of politicians with their focus on the next election. Continued deficit spending leads to higher penalizing taxes, higher unemployment, and higher underemployment. Potentially leading to the offshoring of jobs and opportunities.
2. Various restrictions on trade to redeploy capital in the economy, both cross border and within the country, is basically a tax that will lead to more inflation.
3. A school system producing students ill-equipped for today’s jobs and unable to be successful consumers, voters, parents, and employees.
4. Under spending on national and international security in terms of military and other large threats.

Stock Market

1. Traditionally, young people and other first-time investors don’t have an appropriate knowledge of investing, saving, legal conditions, or reading financial statements. We probably can’t prevent them from making the “easy” money in the fad or the hour, but we need to help them learn from their mistakes. One of the reasons young and first-time investors dominate various derivative, crypto, and trading techniques, is that they are easy “marks” for salespeople. More experienced investors know that they do not have the appropriate information to play in those games.
2. Due to low interest rates and regulation, the amount of capital devoted to generating trading liquidity has been vastly reduced. This is one of the reasons we have such intense price movements.
3. We also need to accommodate global investing or it will continue to leave our shores, leading to a loss of capital and some of our better minds leaving to work and live in more attractive places.
4. Due to our growing retirement crisis, we should create vehicles that give favorable tax treatment to domestic generated dividends.

Barron’s had a good comment on the market for the week from Ann Richards, the CEO of Fidelity International. She heads up Fidelity’s ex US activities and has led several important UK investment firms. “I think that there’s a possibility, we could be seeing the peak of bearishness. But we’re not quite through it yet.”

Your Thoughts?

I would be delighted to learn of other moves that could improve the long-term outlook for investment, both in the US and in the greater world.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/falling-confidence-beats-numbers-but-be.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/inconclusive-but-trending-lower-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/three-worries-april-near-term-slowdown.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Falling Confidence Beats Numbers but be Careful With 2nd Quarter GDP - Weekly Blog # 734

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Falling Confidence Beats Numbers, 

but be Careful With 2nd Quarter GDP

———————

Is a Structural Recession Coming?

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Managing the News

The classical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The first report for the first quarter indicated a decline of 1.4%. This was the headline, although the remaining bulls focused on subsequent reports adjusting first quarter results to a positive number that never made it into the conciseness of the market. Perhaps the message the market has taken is that this Administration is tone deaf. The White House had an afternoon and an evening to manage the news through its obedient media but failed to bolster confidence in the Obama team’s overall competence. It will be interesting to see how the second quarter GDP is handled after the July 4th holiday. If like the first quarter it is a negative, which looks more likely than not, the definition of two consecutive negative quarters representing a recession, may be viewed by some as fulfilled. If not, we may have to wait for an October surprise.

Current Pictures

Racetrack handicappers hope to find “smart money” to give them an edge. Two suggestions - Transportation and Speculators vs. Investor timing.

Transportation: One of the earliest stock market signals led to the Dow Theory, which states that a trend is likely to continue if the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is confirmed by the trend of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (Rails) and visa-versa. The theory was based on industrial shares being more future oriented and rails representing freight that was actually sold. Applying this thought to the week’s performance. After 8 weeks of the DJIA declining, it was up 3 out of 5 days. However, the Dow Transportation Average was down 3 days this week.  This makes sense to me considering US rail traffic was down 5.4% this week. Of the 10 classes of freight, 7 were down and only 3 were up.

Market performance depends on which forces are dominant. Generally, there are more long-term investors owning shares traded on the NYSE than the more speculative holders that invest in the NASDAQ listed stocks. Larger passive index funds are more significant owners of “Big Board” shares. In terms of share volume for the week, only 47% of the NYSE shares rose vs 40% on the NASDAQ. In terms of transaction volume, the NYSE had 45% rising vs 42% for the NASDAQ. Clearly, participants in the market are not enthused with the current direction.

Since recorded time, civilizations have had economic cycles. While some were blamed on weather or plagues, most of the time the main cause was a prior foolish expansion that could no longer be supported. When this is recognized, it usually requires major structural changes to make progress. Is the forthcoming recession an advance signal of a structural depression? Quite possibly!!

A Problem Needs to be Addressed

The identification of the problem to be addressed is generally too simplistic. Global supply chain disruptions have almost universally been blamed on insufficient physical capacity. While temporary capacity limitations cannot be denied, the focus as usual is misplaced. There is a real shortage of qualified workers and most importantly of first line supervisors. In the US, we already know the ratio of publicly available job opportunities to registered unemployed has almost doubled. This is not purely a US phenomenon, as this week we were alerted to the UK’s ratio of opportunities/unemployed. There are now more opportunities than unemployed, probably creating a pattern I experienced in the late 1980s when we couldn’t hire sufficient qualified computer programmers in the US. We sought help from substantial software development shops in India. We were delighted when our designated vendor showed us the credentials of those assigned to produce the required software on a tight schedule. When it didn’t happen as planned, it became clear the good programmers we were introduced to were no longer there. They had left that employer for another, for perhaps an additional $5/week.

Today we are experiencing a decline in the quality and timeliness of deliveries at supermarkets, department stores, law firms, accounting shops, and hardware/software manufactures, etc. In almost all cases these organizations are desperate to find qualified workers, despite the high wages being offered. They have applicants, but they often don’t have the required work skills. The problem most often is that applicants don’t have the right attitudes toward work.

I suggest this is a generational problem, if not longer. The combination of stressed homes and a unionized bureaucratic school system is not producing disciplined students who value intellectual honesty, nor are they capable of budgeting their own time. To me this is distressing as a fiduciary and a consumer, but it doesn’t have to be that way. I am biased in favor of military training, sports teams, and religious organizations. In the US Marine Corps, officers quickly learn that the wonderful history of The Corps is due in part to non-commissioned officers, starting with Napoleon’s early rank of corporal. (Unfortunately, when cost- accountants run companies, they eliminate levels of supervision. They view it as overhead and don’t recognize that first line supervisors are the main cultural builders of a company.)

I hope we never again have a war that requires us to re-introduce conscription (draft). I say this for lots of reasons, including my grandchildren, great grandchildren, nieces, and nephews. However, as an analyst I am worried that at least half if not many more could not qualify to serve their country, due to their physical condition and mental discipline.

The likely business solution to those unemployed by choice is to encourage more automation. Much of the work done by low level workers has already been automated. Business and non-profits have already figured out that the cost of automation can be amortized over a few years, and so doing they eliminate a substantial number of problems in the workforce. Total compensation paid to lower-level employees vs. the cost of the facilities needed to support them does not offer sufficient pay-back.

This shrinkage of low-level jobs may lead to a permanent group of unemployed, at least in terms of the public record. While developed countries are moving down the replacement trend, it will take far too long to eliminate the unemployed problem. These concerns may be the underlying reason we cannot exclude the possibility of a structural depression.

Investment Conclusion

Be careful and invest wisely for the various likely futures and keep us informed as to what you are doing. We all need help.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/inconclusive-but-trending-lower-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/three-worries-april-near-term-slowdown.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/short-long-term-thoughts-weekly-blog-729.html

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Inconclusive, But Trending Lower - Weekly Blog # 733

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Inconclusive, But Trending Lower

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

We Want Clarity

In truth, we don’t know what the future holds for us, our families, country, world, and oh yes, our investments. In terms of the US stock market, we are searching for a sign or a group of signs giving us the courage to act, hopefully before others. I am an optimist and a contrarian, based not on personality, but arithmetic. Markets spend most of their time trending on average in one direction or the other after turning points emerge. Those of us who find bull markets more pleasant and profitable than bear markets are in search of a turning-point. We have been conditioned to at least anticipate the end of a directional move before a major reversal to a new one. This makes sense because turning points occur when there is a dramatic difference between buyers and sellers in their transaction volumes When this happens an emotional low or high point is reached, although an actual low or high often happens on a different day with materially less volume. Historically, lows and highs are tested at least once, if not multiple times, without establishing new highs and lows. This week was not such a turning point in my opinion.

The Week Ended Friday the 13th of May

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 47% of the stock listed reached a new low. Similarly on NASDAQ, 49% reached a new low. Perhaps more convincingly, the volume of declining prices was about twice that of rising prices on the NYSE (16.6 million vs 7.9 million); whereas on the NASDAQ it was about three times (15.0 million vs 5.1 million). The plurality of the selling was more dramatic than the indices dominated by large caps. (Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) -6.36%, S&P 500 -2.41%, and NASDAQ Composite -2.8%). Perhaps the relative performance of mutual funds reflects the extremes of fund shareholders’ fears. The best performing large sector was US Treasury Funds, with the weakest being Precious Metals Funds.

Intermediate-Term Outlook

Prices, interest rates, and yields reflect participant feelings about current levels and their impact on future results. The Producer Price Index (PPI) read +15.68%, the JOC Industrial Price Index +9.47% (already starting to fall), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) +8.24%, Inflation 4.21%, and the Broker Call Loan rate 2.75%. What could be more indicative are fund flows into Chinese domestic funds, which almost doubled this last quarter from their 2nd quarter in 2021 (816 billion RMB vs. 456 billion RMB).  

Other concerns include the S&P 500 declining for the first four months of the year, as most of the time the remaining 8 months cannot break even for the year. For some time market capitalization has provided a good clue to stock price performance, presumably because the large-caps are more liquid. However, when analyzing fund performance by market capitalization this week, there does not appear to be any appreciable difference in year-to-date performance.

Longer-Term Concerns

Secretary Yellen is pushing a minimum global corporate tax, part of the redistribution effort in the US and an effort to destroy sovereignty. Our contacts in Washington suggest these proposals will have difficulty passing the US Senate. The mere fact that it is being proposed generates a market and economic negative that worries some.

Initial Thoughts About the New Bull Market

As usual, I am premature in thinking about the future. Because it takes me a long time to research and make up my mind, I need all the time and help I can get from subscribers and others. Below are a few briefs of my thoughts, which I hope will spark a response.

• Service companies look to be better than goods companies due to the limited amount of talent available. This will lead to favorable pricing.
• Invest in countries and people that are honest, save, and are believers in a practical education.
• Invest in technology that uses new ways to solve problems.

Please share your thoughts now, even though we probably have considerable time before the new bull market comes. The new bull market will probably be led by other names than the old.

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/havent-found-bottom-yet-investments.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/three-worries-april-near-term-slowdown.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/short-long-term-thoughts-weekly-blog-729.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Haven’t Found Bottom Yet! Investments & Military Win by Committing Reserves Successfully - Weekly Blog # 732

 

                                

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Haven’t Found Bottom Yet!

Investments & Military Win by

Committing Reserves Successfully

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Investment Success Defined 

Avoiding losses and participating in “bull markets” is the objective of my blog. To accomplish this goal, one needs to expect some losses. However, the key is to not lose too much capital, so gains are multiplied. The strategy I use builds up reserves when the prices of what my clients and I own are high compared to perceived general market risks. I allow capital reserves to build up to the point of meeting conservative cash expenditure expectations, plus a trading reserve for future investment. Years ago, insurance companies set up “valuation reserves” to capture gains above 20% to use for the next upswing. Inherent in this strategy is the assumption that there will be periodic down markets. The trick to making this a successful strategy is the proper timing and approach to committing reserves. 

 

Committing Reserves 

This is the single most difficult task, both for an investor and military leader. In each case the reserve can be wasted by committing too early, and that is why it is often committed piecemeal. For an investor it is important to identify a time and price soon before a price rise, whereas for the military it is near the point of exhaustion of the enemy’s supply chain. It is for this reason a market’s reaction to current events becomes much more important.

 

Why No Bottom Last Week 

 In theory, I should be calling a bottom for last week. We had a relief rally on Wednesday after the Fed publicly acknowledged inflation was more than transitory and committed to successfully addressing it. The next day, led by “growth stocks”, the market wiped out considerably more than the prior day’s gains, with further losses the final day of the week. 

Historically, the price level for the stock market occurs either before or after the high-volume day, when sellers feel compelled to liquidate at any price. We did not see this happen last week. I noticed at least three inputs that questions the longer-term outlook for stocks. 

 

“3 Strikes and You’re Out” 

This is what the baseball umpire yells when a batter misses the pitched ball three times. Perhaps that was the proper call for the week, with the three strikes against the Fed being their attempt to hit the inflation ball out of the park. However, they failed to see the very fast pitch delivered by the seasonally adjusted money supply. M2 grew 12.11% year-over-year, even after considering the current rate increase and three additional anticipated 50 basis point increases to 2.5%. This may be all the politically diseased Fed can do as it ignores the major cause of inflation, the stimulus (bribes) fed to the economy by the White House over the last two administrations. (I don’t know how much of the Russia-Ukraine war expenditures are in the current M2 numbers). 

Immediately following the rate rise, the major banks raised their prime rate to 4%. Remember, in theory the prime rate is reserved for the bank’s best credits and does not include much of a loss reserve. Currently, most banks are overflowing with deposits and a lack of good loans. Most commercial bank stock prices are also languishing based on their near-term outlook. If major banks require 4% on almost riskless loans, what should the investing and depositing public require from other financial institutions in the way of yield? This is the second strike against the market and the Fed. 

 The third and final strike is a curve ball ordered by the FTC and SEC. The regulatory mandates they extended way beyond prior policy practices.  If this expansion is permitted, public companies will expand less and many private companies will never be traded on US stock markets. 

To demonstrate how much the reach of these agencies has expanded. The newly appointed chair of the FTC recently announced she was examining the proposed takeover of Twitter by Elon Musk and a group of associates and lenders. The SEC simultaneously intends to examine the disclosures of ESG and compensation. (This could lead to transforming the current cyclical decline, from a bear market in progress to a secular recession/depression, following their FDR model.)  

 

A Bully Hits Someone Who is Down 

 Each week I view stock markets through the lens of mutual fund performance. Most of the time it is wise to pick an investment period that includes an up and down price market for analysis. This week I examined the latest fifty-two weeks, which includes both rising and falling markets. I found that there were only twenty categories that had positive returns out of 110 peer groups. The highest return was for the average commodity energy fund, which gained 97.33%. The smallest gain was 0.12% for dedicated short funds. The vast majority of the winners were asset heavy with a perceived marketable value. There were no intellectual property winners. Inflation is driving stock prices and the government is contributing to it, rather than addressing inflation, the biggest single tax on the financially disadvantaged. 

 

Question: Is your portfolio’s current value keeping up with inflation adjusted spending? 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/05/three-worries-april-near-term-slowdown.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/short-long-term-thoughts-weekly-blog-729.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-this-great-investment-era-ending.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Three Worries: April, Near-Term Slowdown, and Long-Term Euro/Asia - Weekly Blog # 731

                                    

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Three Worries: April, Near-Term Slowdown, 

and Long-Term Euro/Asia

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

April’s Bear Market

Our last blog labeled the three most popular US stock indices with their media pundit titles, which now need to be revised based on this week’s performance. Using the size of the drop from previous high points:

DJIA           -10.39% Correction

S&P 500           -13.82% Correction Continued

NASDAQ Composite  -24.18% Bear Market*

                  

*From 11/12/21 Peak

While the two more senior historic indices have not confirmed a bear market, retail sentiment for the next six month is extremely bearish. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) latest weekly survey summary indicates a 59.4% bearish view. This is the deepest bearish percentage I remember. (As a contrarian who is often premature, I am looking forward to a rising market in the indefinite future.) There were 989 new lows for the week on “the big board” and 1570 on the NASDAQ. Investors should be alert to sharply rising stock prices the morning after a down day, where over-leveraged short positions were liquidated by custodians. 

With short-term rates rising, borrowing costs have risen sharply and apparent levels of liquidity are drying up. Toward the end of the month a number of major companies reported earnings that were disappointments. This was due to lack of demand, excess inventory, supply shortages, and an unfavorable mix of workers with questionable skills and attitudes willing to work. Returning to the office is proving to be more difficult and expensive than many thought. No wonder many viewed April as a bad month.

Berkshire Hathaway - Annual Meeting, 1st Quarter, & Best Portfolio Analysis Lab

Berkshire hosted its first physical annual meeting in three years, publishing its first quarter report and providing insightful portfolio analysis. I regularly attend the annual conference, both as a portfolio manager of accounts owning positions in the Berkshire and personally as a long-term shareholder. I left Omaha with a number of insights I would be pleased to discuss privately with subscribers. The following are briefs of those views:

1. The long-expected transition is underway, from an exclusive focus on speaking roles by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, to speaking roles by the two Vice Chairs. Additionally, there was the election of a couple of younger directors.
2. The leadership of value-oriented stocks is slowing on a relative basis. In the first quarter, insurance operations and their investments produced poorer results. However, it was expressed that results would be better in the future based on greater use of technology and better training. Furthermore, the railroad needs to improve its results through better training and the possibly of only engineers on trains. While the remainder of the operations also produced acceptable results, some operations experienced supply shortages and slower sales than expected. It would not surprise me that some activities over inventoried, which led to first quarter sales being less than planned. Perhaps as a result, there were no stock buybacks in the month of April.
3. Not surprisingly, investment losses were reported in the first quarter. As a partial offset to these declines, Warren Buffett purchased 9.5% of Activision for the company in an arbitrage operation. (The significance of this is that it was a replay of a formerly regular activity.)
4. In a recent fund manager’s survey, the majority of portfolio managers favored value-oriented securities or loans for the rest of this year. The very current experience at Berkshire does not vigorously support the idea.

My personal conclusion is that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are managing the company as if it were a Trust for their and other long-term individual shareholders’ heirs, making Berkshire Hathaway a perfectly sound holding, but not necessarily attractive as a new position. 

History Suggests Ukraine’s Invasion Purposes?

For centuries the European-Asian land mass has been the prize that militant leaders and religions have sought, with a passive and submissive Ukraine an important safeguard. Historically, Russians have believed that control of the continent was providence, first with the “Popes” in Rome, then Constantinople and finally Moscow.

Aggressive leaders - Genus Kahn, Napoleon, Hitler, and Putin believed it, as did students of geo-politics. Where does Ukraine fit in? To control commerce in the Black Sea there must be friendly powers on all its coasts controlling the wealth in the ground in Central Asia, which includes Kazakhstan, the former Soviet provinces, and Iran. The Russians already have a naval port in Syria to protect access to the Black Sea and trans-Asian pipelines. Turkey recognized this threat and recently prohibited Russian flyovers to reduce the strength of Russian forces in Syria. Kazakhstan is also worried. The other big player in the region is China. China sees itself as an exporter of both manufactured goods and some raw materials to their preferred markets in Europe and Africa. There are two transport routes, one through and around Africa and the other by train across Asia and Europe. With the potential for mile-long trains crossing what used to be Russian territory, safe passage is critical. You can see that if the Black Sea is not in friendly hands, the dream of a dominant Russia is dead. I may be completely wrong, but one can see Putin’s motivations.

Questions: Do any of these thoughts suggest different investment strategies to you?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/on-way-to-bottom-weekly-blog-730.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/short-long-term-thoughts-weekly-blog-729.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-this-great-investment-era-ending.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.