Dull Markets Are Dangerous for Investors - Weekly Blog # 683

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Dull Markets Are Dangerous for Investors

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Why?

Not only because “quiet comes before the storm”, but dull markets give you the luxury of time for thinking and researching. Investors can use unhurried time to search for better investments and improve on the selection process, although most investors focus their energies on security selection. Some wise investors will ponder the processes used to manage their investment responsibilities, while commentators focus on the first group in the majority. As an investor for more than sixty years managing money for a limited number of investors and for my large family group, I am more concerned with the second need. Few pay enough attention to a periodic review of how we make decisions. Assuming you can make reasonable selection decisions, improving the decision processes will produce better results for the beneficiaries of your efforts in the long run.

Why Now?

Rarely can we assess in an unhurried fashion and review how we think about investing. We have such an opportunity right now. For at least the last six weeks the popular US stock market indices have been fluctuating within a trading range on relatively low and unconvincing volume. This is very logical if you believe equities are primarily priced on what they are expected to report in future periods, not what they have already reported. Expected future earnings are usually discounted at the current “riskless” interest rate of government bonds. Currently, many believe interest rates on US Treasury paper insufficiently discounts future inflation, pointing to the weakness in the valuation of the US dollar in multiple foreign exchange markets.

Others feel that after more than year of stock market gains it is time for a rest. Some point to the likelihood of not as favorable earnings comparisons after an expected large jump in the second quarter, especially when compared to the slow initial rebound in last year’s second quarter. Naturally, third and fourth quarter comparisons are expected to be more labored considering the 2020 recovery began picking up steam in the second half. (On the same basis, some believe earnings gains in 2022 will have tougher comparisons versus those in the coming quarters of 2021. Current spending plans for the rest of this year very much favor consumption with a lower investment value than productive capital expenditures.)

US stock markets are currently being held back by what one large US bank affiliated brokerage firm refers to as the 3 Rs= Rates, Regulation, and Redistribution. Some global investors, including those in the US, see foreign stock markets performing better than those in the US, as shown in the following table:

Stock Market Year-to-Date Gains

Canada        +20%

South Africa  +17%

France        +16%

U.K.          +15%

Taiwan        +15%

How to Improve Your Investment Processes

There are several ways to improve the various processes, unfortunately they require more work than  the sound-bite/pundit driven world would suggest. Often, the best communicator is more of a commercial success than a better investor. 

People like quick comparisons that lead to an ordinal ranking result, often leading to the identification of a leader at the peak of their performance. One of the more successful institutional investors, Marathon Asset Management, decries this approach in the following quote “categorization purposefully reduces complexity and nuances”.

Nuances are critical to the understanding of comparisons, no critical analysis of peers is simple and straight forward. The following is a list of categories: stocks, bonds, growth, value, return on sales, operating earnings, earnings per share, book value, and tax rates. On a personal level, what about our significant others, or the schools we chose to attend. What is missing in these comparisons is the attention to quality, sustainability, integrity, personality, and the fit within the existing structure or portfolio. I suggest statistical comparisons do not provide answers, although they are useful in framing important questions exploring the answers to the “soft” questions.

Another critical technique is to not pay more than once for the same positive. For example, the chance of success for a company developing a new product or service creating new customers and opportunities is generally priced into the value of that stock. However, that premium should be eliminated once the product is on the market and operating earnings from the new product are counted in current earnings. R&D is critical for many large companies to maintain existing earnings power, it is therefore not worth an added value.

Turnarounds can be great investments, but the key is understanding if they can keep adding value in the future or are one-trick ponies. Proxy statements are useful in this analysis. After a new CEO has been in place for about five years, the degree of senior management and director turnover provides a clue as to whether the heavy work of the turnaround is complete or ongoing.

While I would be happy to discuss other analytical techniques with subscribers privately, I will include one final critical analysis for portfolio managers. How a considered investment modifies the existing portfolio and at what cost.  A new investment will determine how the existing portfolio is modified and at what cost. Is the new investment going to reduce the chance of risk or add to performance in good periods? How much time will be needed to follow and deepen an understanding of the new investment? What is the appropriate starting position size and what are the likely points to augmenting the size over time? Are we comfortable with the other shareholders, both old and new?

Question of the Week: 

Have you modified your investment thinking in 2021? If not, are you likely to make changes before year end?   

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/faulty-comparisons-weekly-blog-682.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/extreme-views-can-be-good-lessons.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/where-is-stock-market-going-next-weekly.html

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

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Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Faulty Comparisons - Weekly Blog # 682

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Faulty Comparisons

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                          

Judgement Traps

When asked how his wife was an old comic replied, compared to whom? While that generated a laugh, it highlighted that some important considerations are not well decided by quick comparisons. Unfortunately, far too many investment decisions are made largely by comparison, with extreme performance judged to be better. 

As someone who has largely devoted his career to making and using statistical comparisons, I am the first to suggest that historical comparisons are not good “divining rods” for making investment decisions. When dealing with the public the SEC requires that a warning be included indicating past performance is not indicative of future results. Unfortunately, this warning is not attached to all comparisons. For example, size, yield, book value, return on asset, equity, sales, operating earnings etc. All that these measures tell us is what happened, not why they happened or even the conditions that may have contributed to the results.

The main reasons there are betting favorites at the racetrack, political campaigns and possibly at the entertainment awards, is that there is a belief that the “smart money” knows something and therefore is worth following. I was recently in contact with some very bright student investors who used a lot of statistical measures to make investment decisions. One of their newer tools was the size of mutual fund holdings and possibly transactions in a stock. I felt this was an oversimplification in their search for the “smart money”. I suggested they separate the fund universe into three buckets:

1. Passive/index funds
2. Funds with net inflows
3. Funds with net outflows

I would totally disregard the passive funds because they are not making considered judgements on individual securities. They should pay only partial attention to funds growing through net inflows and pay particular attention to funds in net redemption. 

Portfolio managers of funds with net inflows generally use the money to either buy more of what they own or begin a position in a new name. If the new name attracts additional future dollars of inflows, that could be of interest. The job of the portfolio manager experiencing net redemptions is quite different. He/she may love all their holdings but must still raise cash. Consequently, it is likely securities with the worst near term prospects will be sold. That could be the most interesting factoid of the exercise. For further insights, I have found it worth following specific funds, particularly when they invest in a new name. (This is exactly the type of SEC warning that would be appropriate, past performance does not predict future results.)

Part of the fallacy of comparisons is a misperception of the appropriateness of the index used to compare a particular stock, fund, or investor. Currently, the largest number of investment accounts hold 10 to 30 stocks and have less than $5 million invested. In these cases, performance comparisons with the major indices are inappropriate. Indices, in terms of the number of securities, represent a small percentage of the number of available securities. Additionally, unlike mutual funds, most stock accounts do not face daily liquidity needs. Most pension funds have limited need to make unplanned sales, thus liquidity is not paramount in their decision process also.

As a young junior security analyst, I thought comparing a steel company in Chicago with those in Pennsylvania was not useful. The Chicago producer mainly sold to nearby customers and had a transportation cost advantage, which they used to get higher prices. Similarly, the degree of internal production of critical auto parts was a major differentiation between auto companies. Thus, I at an early questioner of comparisons without adjustments. 

Applying Comparisons to Future Market Direction

As is often the case, intelligent analysts and portfolio managers see the US stock market going in one of three directions:

1. A major economic expansion
2. At half time in a continuing bull market
3. At a pause before a market storm

In each case, their primary argument is based on a comparison with an indicator. I have listed their views and indicators below, allowing subscribers to make up their own mind.

“Mother of All Recoveries”

This is an economic forecast based largely on a combination of government stimulus and recovery from the lockdown.

Half Time

“Half Time” in a long-term bull market trend, with an occasional correction and a change in market leadership, supported by market analysis.

A Rounding Top that Could Lead to a Bear Market

Through Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) -1.64% and the S&P 500 -1.81% are down from their peaks on May 7th. The NASDAQ is down -4.77% from its peak on April 26th. While the first quarter was quite positive, it is possible the second quarter will be flat to down, with earnings per share gaining the most in the second quarter this year. In the latest week, Precious Metals Funds were up +7.16%, with 118 new lows on NYSE and 230 new lows on the NASDAQ. In the week tax payments were due, Money Market Funds attracted $25.2 Billion.

What Are the Odds of a Top in the Next Six Months?

Mother of All Recoveries   25%

Half Time                  35%

Rounding-Top               40%

Based on these projections, I would prepare to trade portions of the account and be prepared to raise 50% in cash. For accounts with a five-year time horizon, a cash holding of 20% to be redeployed once the market has moved beyond a 10% decline, makes sense. For accounts looking beyond five years, no additional cash is suggested.

Please share what you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/extreme-views-can-be-good-lessons.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/where-is-stock-market-going-next-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

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Extreme Views Can Be Good Lessons - Weekly Blog # 681

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Extreme Views Can Be Good Lessons

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                          

Historical Perspective

Both the Bible and other historic views are testament to very popular wrong views (the earth is flat) and unpopular views that eventually become popular based on their wisdom (the dignity of the individual). Consequently, it is wise to pay attention to extreme views, but not to necessarily accept them.

An Investor’s Perspective

There are times when faced with making pivotal investment decisions, I find it useful to examine extreme points of view. Currently, one could describe buyers, sellers, and holders as being uncertain what to do, following the reactions of others to events. They do this by thinking of their investments, both assets and liabilities, as a single portfolio. To the extent possible, I prefer to make activist decisions, accepting I will be wrong some of the time. (Hopefully, I will recognize my mistakes quickly enough and take corrective action. History shows I have made some decisions producing positive results.)

The Biggest Investment Decision

The core of every investment decision is an implied guess as to what the future will bring and none of us knows the answer with any certainty. Most investors spend the bulk of their efforts on the selection of individual investments: securities, funds, or advisors. My instinct is to divide most problems into separate parts, like the outlook for investments. Unlike most, I attempt to slice the question into reasonable time frames, examining the current outlook and various long-term market periods. Below is how I am looking at the stock market, at least through 2022 and possibly 2024, then to early the next century. In each case I evaluate extreme, not balanced views, highlighting possible insights.

The Current Malaise 

The pundits are beginning to recognize that we’ve entered an inflationary period, which is unlikely to be brief because it is the product of a number of trends. Firstly, the era of “big government” is back in many countries, states, and local communities. Characteristically, big government is  expected to provide solutions to various social and economic problems through large and long duration debt. This trend was aided by Volcker breaking the back of the last inflationary cycle where government interest rates peaked at about 15%. With interest rates below 2% today, the cost of servicing the expanding debt has been materially reduced. Unfortunately, much of the debt was used for current consumption, not investment that could have produced income or higher paying jobs. Increased regulation also caused numerous skilled jobs to be eliminated as critical capacity expansions were reduced. 

In reaction to these policies the private sector used technology and foreign labor to improve productivity, resulting in much of our clothing, food, cars, and parts being imported. Intense financial regulation has also caused non-bank lending to rise.

Equity investors have reacted by buying into companies and commodities that can raise prices due to supply shortages. Stocks in Canada have risen +17%, South Africa +15%, Russia +11% and Australia +10% this year. Commodity funds have had net inflows for the past 18 weeks.

US stock markets have declined slightly, led by the NASDAQ (the savviest market) falling -5% for the past two weeks and -2.34% this week. The following are other indications of a change in direction:

1. The JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index fell slightly to 147.05 from 148.4.
2. The WSJ weekend price list showed 79% declining.
3. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bullish sentiment reading fell to 36.5% from 44.3% last week. Bearish responses to the survey rose to 27% from 23%. (Historically a contrarian indicator.)

Perhaps the most significant signal came from T. Rowe Price (*), who believes global economic growth will peak this quarter (in percentage terms) and expects higher inflation. Consequently, they are underweight general equities, but favor “value” and commodities.

(*) T Rowe Price is a holding in our private financial services fund and personal accounts. 

Next Century Investing

Recently, I typed a report and hit the wrong key, writing 2121 instead of the current year. When I reviewed what I wrote, I realized we will likely have at least six members entering the next century in our extended family. Because I question Social Security making meaningful payments to the middle class and don’t yet recognize any six-plus investors entering the next century, I started thinking about them.

While it is probably untrue that Albert Einstein was the first to say that compound interest was the eighth wonder the world, he did recognize the power of compounding. (Ruth and I have stayed at the space that he may have stayed in on his many long visits to Caltech.)

Assuming as little as a 3% compound rate, after taxes and fees, the initial amount would multiply more than 10 times by the end of the century and 22 times if the net rate of return were 4%. For today’s exercise, how would I invest some money today or instruct a manager to invest without the ability to make changes for the next 80 years? 

While I believe people will continue to make mistakes, I assume there will be inflation risk. However, I would not invest in natural resources on a shortage basis. Nevertheless, I would invest in companies that could create sustainable demand for their products and services. Now, without to make future judgments, Apple (*) would qualify as a company able to come up with new products and services. I might possibly favor either or both Goldman Sachs (*) and JP Morgan, not for their existing businesses which are cyclical, but because of their willingness to lose money temporarily to establish themselves in new businesses that could replace their older businesses. 

(*) Current holdings in financial services fund and or personal accounts.

For the Single Portfolio

Many single portfolio accounts do not hold enough different securities to be intelligently diversified. Only those with 50 to more than 100 names could tolerate the risks involved in getting out of the center of the market. Thus, most should not own shortage plays, because they don’t last forever. They should probably own some successful foreign holdings in growing local markets with high savings rates. In terms of investing in new product and services companies, one should invest in large companies that have developed new products to replace existing lines, leaving the early development work to firms that can do it well.

I would be happy to discuss with you your thoughts on these subjects. 

What do you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/where-is-stock-market-going-next-weekly.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/four-letter-words-to-sounder-investing.html

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Where is the Stock Market Going Next? - Weekly Blog # 680

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Where is the Stock Market Going Next?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                          

The job of the analyst is to consider alternatives, which enables the owners of capital to make decisions concerning their separate needs and time frames. As an analyst, it is not our job to pass judgment on the proper path forward. Our task is to guess the most likely direction in terms of the most favorable risk/reward ratio. 

Combining my trained instinct as a US Marine Officer and a thoroughbred amateur racetrack handicapper, I look for better than average risk/return opportunities by avoiding massed crowds. I do this by observing what I see around me and putting together a portfolio of reasonably low risk of loss with an acceptable reward. I see market sensitivities through the following lenses: 

Stock Markets Moving in Opposite Directions 

In the latest week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose +2.67% and the S&P 500 +1.23%. The NASDAQ fell for a second week by-1.51%. The percentage of the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) hit a new high of 26% vs. 11% for the NASDAQ. According to the Dow Jones Standard & Poor’s indices, the best performing stocks were US Select Dividend stocks +3.48%. Internet Services stocks –5.3% were the worst.  Perhaps the best encapsulation of this lack of confidence was the stock price movement of T. Rowe Price (*), which reached a high of $189.42 on Friday vs its low of $179.29 on Monday. The other four days of the week produced higher volumes than Friday, which declined 40% from its peak volume on Tuesday. 

 

(*) Held in private financial services fund and personal accounts.

Mutual Funds Capture the Views of Both Individual and Institutional Investors 

For the latest 52 weeks, the average US Diversified Equity Fund (USDE) gained +60.1%, with the average S&P 500 index fund being up +47.59%. Just seeing those results suggest caution in anticipating large gains for the next 52 weeks. In the current week, the average USDE was down -1.06%, while the average Commodity fund was up +3.01%. Clearly a different assessment of the impact of rising inflation on the general stock market. 

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Studied Views

Their non-partisan view is that by the middle of the following decade (2030s), the size of interest payments will be larger than current deficits. Paying interest on interest is not a sound financial plan. The Congressional Budget Office is also on record saying private economic forecasters have a bad record. This was before Friday’s miss on the expected surge in jobs. 

Eyeball Observations 

We visited The Mall at Short Hills on the Saturday before the US celebration of Mothers’ Day. My niece noted that there were only a few less empty store locations than about a month ago. Nevertheless, the crowd approached a Christmas season level, with one major difference, shoppers were not carrying a lot of labelled shopping bags. They must have been purchasing smaller items. I suspect they were spending their government “Roman circus” or “bribes” from the stimulus payments before prices rose further. While not many looked at Saturday’s Wall Street Journal (WSJ), those who did could see that 85% of the weekly prices shown were rising. 

The Political Game 

The only “blood sport” played in Washington DC is for the next election.  For a some aging politicians, the 2022 congressional elections leading up to the 2024 Presidential election will be their “Last Hurrah”. There are some that see George Orwell’s classic “1984” introduction of “Newspeak”, its purpose was to hide intent. For example, “War is Peace” or “Ignorance is Strength”. Today they might use “Fair Share of Taxes” for capital redistribution. 

The Federal Reserve

For those who still believe the Federal Reserve determines short-term interest rates, it is wise to understand the political position of the so-called independent governors of the Fed. The Fed is probably the only central bank that directly answers to the nation’s political power. In our case the President appoints the governors but has difficulty exercising control. Except, votes were unanimous when both the Yellen and Powell boards raised interest rates. (Various Presidents and members of Congress have tried to reduce the theoretical “independence” of the Fed.) 

In the “tug of war” between the Fed and elected politicians, the key signposts are interest rates. Low interest rates are favored by borrowers, including by a few past Presidents. Savers want interest rates high enough to cover both inflation and the incipient cost of defaults. The political problem facing politicians is that financial markets recognize government interest rates do not compensate for future inflation. Consequently, private sector rates have adjusted upward and the foreign exchange value of the US dollar has declined against a few of the available alternatives. Under an activist government at the Treasury, the SEC and CFTC can expect regulatory attacks to force a closing of the gap between government and private market interest rates. This battle is likely to lead to troubled markets.

Currently, with lots of enthusiasm in the markets, please be careful with your investments. The winning odds are coming down and reducing the risk/reward ratio, probably for a year.  

What do you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/05/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/four-letter-words-to-sounder-investing.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/the-other-side-weekly-blog-677.html

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

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Observations: “You can see a lot just by observing” Yogi Berra - Weekly Blog # 679

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Observations:

“You can see a lot just by observing” Yogi Berra

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                          

Investors Should Learn by Observing Others

The art of investing is based on observing elements that others do not see or interpret. One example is a comment from a young person about investing. She asked, isn’t the most distressing investment Bitcoin? I saw this as a learning moment and replied that the most distressing investment is cash.

Except at the very beginning of an individual’s investment career, cash should never be the predominate asset in their portfolio. However, cash whether people know it or not, sits at the very center of the concentric circles that make-up an investor’s portfolio. Even when one buys or sells an investment, it momentarily passes through a cash phase. A more important point however is that when an investor contemplates their entire portfolio, they do so in terms of its cash value. Furthermore, the level of cash serves as a rough guide for the current confidence in the remaining holdings, which should include perceived liabilities.

Most investors prefer to combine their investments into a single documented portfolio. This minimizes the time and emotion of comparing current assets with future needs and desires. Just as I don’t have only a single hammer in my tool kit, I also don’t believe in a single investment view or portfolio.

Managing and Measuring

You can’t cope well with problems/benefits or assets/liabilities you can’t measure. Every element of our lives cannot and should not be measured to the fifth decimal place. Initially, the most important decisions are binary, good or bad. Only later can you attempt to analyze how good is good or how bad is bad. Some portion of  concerns may revert to using cash as an imperfect measuring tool. 

At this point in the development of my thinking I find it useful to divide tasks into segments, assigning problems/benefits and asset/liabilities to separate portfolios, usually based on when cash will be needed to pay for the desired result. This segmentation allows me to assign different assets to different problems, potentially suggesting the use of different assets and investment strategies.

Regardless of whether you maintain a single portfolio or multiple portfolios, you need a framework to decide whether you are accomplishing your goals, moving in the right direction or need a mid-course correction. In the next section I briefly suggest the elements to use in building a portfolio measurement approach.

Framing the Measurement   

Critical end dates and periods to measure and analyze choices:

12/31/21

11/10/22 (For US Taxpayers)

12/31/31

Retirement

Estate

Multi-Generation

Most important decision centers:

Capitol Cities – Washington, London, Beijing

Capital Cities – New York, London, Shanghai

Size of loss tolerance 

10%

25%

50%

100%

Cost (for long-term holdings)

Investment Policy or Critical Personnel Changes

What Yogi Might Observe Today

1. This week, the normally more speculative NASDAQ market is less “bullish” than the larger cap NYSE market in terms of the percent   of traded issues reaching new highs, 11.8% for the NASDAQ and 22.7% for the NYSE. Short position changes last month had the NASDAQ increasing +2% and the NYSE +1%. 
2. International Markets performed better than US: Taiwan (+19.5%) was the best performer, followed by South Africa, Canada, Singapore, France, and Hong Kong. The US followed Hong Kong with performance of +11.4%. South Africa and Canada are metals and energy driven.
3. T. Rowe Price’s target date funds reduced their commitment to US stocks due to lower expectations.
4. Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed thinks the Fed should recognize increased speculation by considering an increase in rates.
5. Some believe the real reason for increases in government spending is to increase the deficit, in order to raise taxes on the “wealthy.”
6. Hunter Lewis, developer of the “endowment” model at Cambridge Associates, believes it is outmoded since most academic endowments and  pension funds  use it and rely on important allocations of private equity and real estate.
7. Warren Buffett at the Berkshire Hathaway (*) annual meeting noted two things of general value: 
1. None of the 30 largest stocks by market capitalization from 30 years ago are on the list today.
2. Reports from their 60 plus affiliates indicate inflation in their costs.  
• (*) Owned in Private financial Services Fund and Personal accounts.
8. Medina Spirit led all the way to win The Kentucky Derby. The colt was purchased for $1,000 and was the 6th most favored horse in the race. It was Bob Baffert’s 7th Derby winner.

My interpretation of these observations is to be careful with short-term oriented accounts.

What do you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/four-letter-words-to-sounder-investing.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/the-other-side-weekly-blog-677.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/04/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.