Currently, Selling More Important Than Buying - Weekly Blog # 637

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Currently, Selling More Important Than Buying

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

July is often a low volume, relatively quiet, stock market period.  August, with its different conventions, COVID-19 progress and short-term economic signals, will likely be more lively. This is therefore the ideal time to look at portfolios with two to one hundred plus securities. Include in your analysis both all the cash that could be invested and probable cash demands well into 2021. This review is unlike the usual process of buying some new and exciting investment, where you quickly find the money for your new “almost certain winner”. However, most of the time new purchases will not drive next year’s performance, it will be more impacted by the remaining portfolio.

Remember March
Many investors feared that the one-month dramatic fall in stock indices was the opening salvo of a long, protracted “bear market”. As usual with mass fears, it did not happen for political reasons. Yet, although there was still some of the normal cleansing effect of an economic recession, it was perhaps not enough.

Record 2nd Quarter Continuing
With governments and their junior partners, the central banks, induced a strong rally occurred led by speculative forces, including the not yet dead zombies that should have been liquidated. The NASDAQ Composite gained +30.6% in the quarter and continued through Friday with another record high, gaining +4.01% just last week. Globally, the big winners were two handfuls of large-cap technology-oriented stocks. Even with the increasing levels of tension with China, their stocks are the biggest winners as an investment region thus far in 2020. Last week, 16 out of the 25 best performing SEC registered mutual funds for the week were primarily invested in the China Region. (Even within China, the controlled press warned local investors to be careful with record prices and a wave of new IPOs.) In the US markets, 75% of the weekly prices for ETFs, stock market indices, currencies and commodities were higher. Translating all this bullishness into mutual fund performance for the funds we are particularly interested in, some had gains better than 50% from the March lows. One might suggest that some investors are experiencing a sugar or other stimulant high.

Outlooks
There are as usual a myriad of outlooks depending on both direction and varying time periods. While investors should sub-divide their portfolios into different time periods based on the expected needs for their capital, they do not. Unfortunately, most investors, particularly those competing for new money, are fixated on 2020 results. This is unfortunate because I hope the future does not contain many years similar to 2020.

Six Month Positives
The AAII, usually a reliable contrarian indicator, has now flashed four straight weeks where their sample survey of member market expectations for the next six months was over 40% bearish. This number is unusually strong both in magnitude and duration. While they could be correct this time, it would be surprising.

Longer-term Concerns
Citigroup has a model identifying periods of panic and euphoria designed to predict the stock market one year into the future. It is based on tracking extreme current market behavior that will lead to a reversal the following year. The current reading from this model points to lower stock prices a year from now resulting from the short-term euphoria we have been experiencing.

Barron’s publishes a weekly chart on the movement gold mining stock prices vs. bullion prices. Recently, the price of the metal has been rising gently while the index of mining stock prices has been rising sharply, suggesting buyers of mining shares expect materially higher prices in the future. Most mining companies are highly leveraged, with operating expenses, debt, and stiff taxes. Traditionally, when the price of gold goes up, most other stocks go down. Mario Gabelli, a well-known and respected investor, expects 2021 gross margins to decline.

Recently, there has been an increase in the number of people believing that there is a reasonable chance of a ”blue wave” coming in the election, with the Democratic-Socialists winning the Presidency and both houses of Congress. If that were to happen, many believe taxpayers and consumers would forfeit twice, both with taxes and inflation rising measurably. If the “blue wave” does not materialize, it is likely that only accelerating inflation will cause the squeeze on gross margins that Mario expects. Both party’s policies will lead to an increased cost of living. Under any of the feared circumstances, the long-awaited relative price performance of some value stocks will likely improve.

The Poor History of Escaping from Cash
In the last fifty years or so, we have seen attempts to escape expected sharp gains in inflation, leading to the liquidation of some assets like cash in order to invest in “real assets”. Remember when the Japanese bought high-priced golf courses around the world to escape their inflation. They paid premium prices for classic real estate, e.g. Rockefeller Center.

For perhaps twenty years, Chinese citizens and relatives of political people have been exporting their wealth to Western countries whenever they could.

In the West, the wealthy have bid up popular pieces of art to ever higher prices. Many financial writers scoffed at the high prices paid for these foolish purchases, not recognizing that the buyers were actually selling an over-priced currency held in surplus. Perhaps this is what is in the mind of the current “goldbugs”?

My guess in all these cases, even measuring at their lower exit prices, the exporters will come out ahead of those that stayed completely in their own currency.

What to do?

1. Make a list of your current assets and resources net of obligations. Put the list in descending order as a percentage of wealth.
2. Pay particular attention to the top half of the wealth pile and ask if you would choose to have that much of your wealth so exposed today.
3. Staying with the top 50% of the list, what could negatively impact its value. Separate the list into general calamities and specific problems, e.g. labor problems combined with unfavorable governments.
4. Determine whether there are hedging or opposite vehicles for each specific risk, as well as more general risks. Energy and airlines are opposite vehicles.
5. View the costs of hedging or contrary investments as an insurance premium, much like what you might pay to fully insure your home or jewels.
6. Rearrange your assets with the potential gains and losses, including the theoretical insurance premiums. 
7. Repeat once a year.

Please share your thoughts with me on the subjects and approaches mentioned.

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-4th-lesson-need-to-hire-wise-not.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/06/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/06/data-driven-reactions-dangerous-weekly.html



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Copyright © 2008 - 2018

A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved
Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Winning Investment Strategies Shrinking - Weekly Blog # 608

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Winning Investment Strategies Shrinking

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Premise: Winners are not Good Teachers
In the Northern Hemisphere this is the season where sports fans look forward to identifying the best team to crown as champion of their league. They celebrate the stars that did exceptionally well, but because we don’t like to pick on those that are down, we avoid focusing on the players that performed badly. This highlights the difference between a good sports or investment analyst and one likely to perform poorly in the future. As a contrarian I believe I learn far more from the mistakes of previously competent players than the exceptional winners.

Matter of fact, most winners owe their success to the mistakes made by others, something that is certainly true in military history. Many competitors try to model themselves after recently crowned champions,  but more often than not those who study a broader list of mistakes made by individuals, and their managements will be on the way to becoming future champions. (General George Washington was one who learned from early battle losses.)

Applying Lessons to Professional Investment Battles
Since every investor starts with some cash and perhaps some borrowing capability, all investments and investors are in competition. Most choose to stay in the middle of the pack rather than venturing out to the extremes. Nevertheless, it is not what a single investor or a single investment does, it is what others do that determines the absolute and relative profitability of the decision.

Why is this? It has to do with what is called the weight of money. (A lesson I learned from the real investment professionals at Fidelity.) Prices don’t move on the basis of brain power or information, but on the size of the flows into and out of investments. (This is the fundamental basis behind technical or market analysis.)

Flows follow Performance
Brains don’t move prices, conviction as measured by the size or the weight of money behind the flows do. No one is required to sign an affidavit as to why we do anything, it’s what we do and with what size or force. In viewing different asset classes we can see that the lack of  money going into commodities and some elements of real estate has led to flows into some equities and somewhat indiscriminately to fixed income.

Excessive Flows are Often Late
As with most investment rules and policies they can be taken to an extreme, which might be viewed as an antidote to the weight of money argument. One critical element of flows is who the sellers are at various prices, or for fixed income securities, yields. In many cases the sellers are more disciplined than the buyers. Owners of fixed income products are initially interested in current yield, but those like pension plans are also focused on the reinvestment of their interest payment receipts. When rates are too low they may decide to exit the fixed income asset class with their profits and explore total return vehicles, largely equity-oriented investments.

In the third quarter, worldwide equity funds had net redemptions of $3 billion, bond funds net inflows of $271 billion, and money-market funds net inflows of $311 billion. The smarter sellers may be speaking, especially if you consider that interest rates are among the lowest in 500 years, before the inflation caused by the discovery of South American gold. Even though rates are low, the yield curve is becoming a bit steeper. Currently, the thirty-year US Treasury yield is 2.35%, which may be the “market’s” guess of the long-term inflation rate. Some escapees from high-quality fixed income and some nervous equity investors are congregating in high yield paper/funds. Moody’s (*) has expressed their concern after rising prices in this category, fearing an increase in problems for future issuers.

(*) A position in our Private Financial Services Fund)

All is not Great in the Domestic Equity Arena

1. The US dollar’s rate of exchange is softening, making foreign investments more attractive. 
2. Too much attention is being paid to the S&P 500, which year-to-date is producing a return north of 30%, including reinvested dividends. What is not being noticed is the significant number of stocks producing lower returns, particularly the value-oriented and industrial company stocks found in many portfolios. The latter dealing with lackluster sales and weakening prices. 
3. Low interest rates are allowing companies that should close to limp along and depress prices. 
4. The very volatile American Association of Individual Investors sample survey, a contrarian indicator, showed 44% of investors being bullish vs. 20.5% bearish. (Most readings are in a 20-40% range.)
5. The oldest Central Bank in the world has given up using negative interest rates. Sweden, a very respected central bank, is now no longer one of the few negative interest rate users. I suspect some central banks and investment people with a knowledge of history see higher rates in their future, perhaps much higher.

A useful set of indicators
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) currently trades 3,099 issues and the NASDAQ 3,466. Historically the NYSE had more stringent listing standards, so on balance it has older and higher perceived quality. Both had 47 issues that were unchanged last week. The NYSE had 2.6% of its stocks hit new lows, whereas the NASDAQ had 20% hit new lows. The NASDAQ Composite has gained +38% this year and the DJIA +25%. On average the NASDAQ attracts more active traders than the senior exchange and thus may better reflect sentiment.



Question of the week: When was the last time you looked at your fixed income investments with the same scrutiny as you do your stock investments?



Did you miss my past few blogs? Click one of the links below to read.
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/12/faulty-decision-processes-at-change.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/12/investors-are-worrying-about-wrong.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/11/contrarian-stock-and-bond-fund-choices.html



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VALUE INVESTING WILL BE SUPERIOR BUT IT MAY HAPPEN AFTER THE RECESSION - Weekly Blog # 574

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

VALUE INVESTING WILL BE SUPERIOR

BUT IT MAY HAPPEN AFTER THE RECESSION

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Current Inputs
A few weeks ago, one of our perceptive readers asked what advice I had for his good friends that were managers of value stock portfolios. My unexplained response may have seemed nonsensical in the face of relatively poor performance compared to market. I should have explained my thinking. My reply was focused on the business of providing investment advice. I saw a short-term continuation of poor relative performance leading to less money going into these portfolios and a significant number of the managers withdrawing from the business. Lower prices often result from fewer value buyers participating in the market. Without new performance seeking money in the markets the remaining portfolio managers will need to liquidate some or eventually all their holdings. Typically, they will sell their most liquid holdings first and be forced to sell their less-liquid positions when that is all they have left. These sales will be at bargain prices for those that have the cash to take advantage, but there will be few with the cash, courage, and foresight to take advantage of these great bargains. These insightful managers will have less competition and thus they can earn premium level fees.

Recently I reviewed the performance of a large Planned-Giving Fund run by a well-known and respected manager with a recognized value bias. In looking over their performance record, it was superior for ten years, but not for shorter time periods. Just this week we were informed that a” deep-value” manager was closing his shop, as he was no longer able to produce the good returns he had generated in the past.

These inputs led me to explore the structural reason why this group of intelligent, formerly good performers, were not doing better in a market that was performing extremely well. Like many analysts who are closet history students, my search for an explanation focused on recent US financial history and recorded history from Biblical and Ancient societies.

Last Ten Years
 Because government promoted home ownership, various government subsidies and tax credits led to excessive ownership of homes by those stretched in their ability to support mortgages and the reasonable upkeep on home purchases. In some cases the buyers lied on their applications, but much more significantly lied to themselves and their families as to the predictability of their income and wealth.

In the aftermath of the mortgage crisis the government focused on the mis-selling and mis-labeling of tranches and ended up penalizing the financial industry with burdensome regulation and capital requirements. Further, Central Banks pumped money into the market in what came to be known as “quantitative easing”. This has led to a ten-year period where interest rates have been kept artificially low, depriving savers of the rates that paid them not to spend, leading to a global shortage of savings. More importantly, low rates and the availability of capital has led both commercial banks and non-bank financials to make commercial loans at interest rates which encouraged undisciplined credit extensions. Much of this money went to marginal firms for capacity expansions. This has hurt the value investor, as demonstrated by their poor investment performance compared to other investors.

Companies that value investors favor have the following characteristics:

• Strong balance sheets (under-utilized borrowing power)
• Physical assets where the current market value is larger than the depreciated book value
• Close to impregnable market penetration of good customers
• Unique and highly prized intellectual property
• Respected in-depth management
• Stable shareholder base

It takes many years if not generations to build these. The field of competition changes when marginal companies with a poor financial record and large debt can acquire even more debt at low cost. Often, when marginal companies build excess capacity they fight for market share. They do this by lowering prices, which in turn devalues the more sound companies. With a more leveraged balance sheet the marginal company can report faster earnings growth than the value focused company, at least for a while. Thus, in a period where growth is most valued, the marginals will be the more productive investments, until the next recession.

Ancient History + Human Nature
The Bible and archaeology have recorded various agricultural cycles, often tied to weather but also the expansion of crop or grazing land. Humans are driven by fear and greed. When they are in rough balance, humans tend to be both disciplined and careful. However, when either side is predominant humans tend to do extreme things and concentrate all their resources to gain more wealth/power or horde them to avoid current or future crises. When a mass of people do the same thing, like all going to one side of a boat, they can capsize the boat. That is why we have always needed recessions to correct the excesses of a prior period. I see nothing that has repealed this need and thus I expect we will have a recession at some point.

Where are We Today?
While I can’t give a date for the top of the market prior to the beginning of the next recession, nor the percent of the market gain, I can make the following observations:

1. Currently, the US stock market is being led by the NASDAQ composite, made up mostly of tech and services providers. However, this past week the stocks listed on the New York Sock Exchange had a higher percentage of gainers 77%vs. 69%. Perhaps the valuation gaps are too great - NYSE p/e 18.47x vs NASDAQ p/e 23.67x. If the rate of gain slows, perhaps yields will be more important - NYSE 2.16% vs. NASDAQ 0.99%.
2. Despite the strength of the equity market NYSE volume is flat compared to a year ago. The absence of speculative enthusiasm for listed stocks suggests there is more upside ahead.
3. While it is broadly proclaimed that the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates this year, this week the average interest rate offered by savings institutions rose 5 basis points to 0.65 bps. I interpret this as savings banks encouraging more deposits for them to loan out. This may support the surprise 3.1% first quarter GDP announcement. I have always believed that the Fed is a follower and not a leader on setting interest rates.
4. Each week the WSJ tracks the prices of 72 securities, currencies, and commodities. Until this week, gainers outnumbered the losers, this week they are exactly even.
5. The bond market is often more attuned to changing financial conditions. In the latest week yields on high quality bonds rose 14 bps, while the yield on intermediate credits declined 4 bps. [Prices move inversely to yields.] This suggests that bond investors are concerned about the future value of the highest quality bonds.

What to Do with Value Funds/ Managers
As a portfolio manager of portfolios of mutual funds, we invest globally in both growth and value focused funds. I expect the more growth-oriented funds to provide both more appreciation and volatility. The value-focused funds will probably go down less in poor markets. However, when interest rates go up, as I expect them to do before the next presidential inaugural, the value merchandise should do better and will receive a reasonable amount of M&A activity.

What Do You Think?  


Did you miss my past few blogs? Click one of the links below to read.
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/04/contrarian-observations-not-predictions.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/04/not-yet-peak-luck-lessons-weekly-blog.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2019/04/investing-in-quality-for-growth-or.html



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Copyright © 2008 - 2018
A. Michael Lipper, CFA

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Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Time Horizon Decisions Require Different Skills

Introduction

The essential question facing investors this Monday morning is whether this just a rally in a trading/bear market or possibly the beginnings of a new bull market.  Only time will tell, but having the right skill sets and time frame focus will improve your odds. This is similar to the race track when a knowledge of various jockeys' preferred race tactics, the training and pedigree of the horse, the conditions of the race and those of the competitors’ may improve, but do not guaranty the gambler’s chance of success.

The Conditions of Today’s Race

We have had six years of generally rising US stock markets followed by six weeks of falling prices through mid February and four weeks of rising prices. Different patterns are affecting different major markets. Europeans seem to translate the latest multiple moves by the ECB as a reaction to a fear of a business slowdown. China is being pumped up by various governmental moves. Many emerging markets have suffered by negative currency comparisons and a sharp drop off of their exports to China and a cut back in the funding of various projects by the Chinese. Japan’s negative interest rate policy has hurt the value of the yen, but has not released constrained consumer and corporate spending. Clearly the almost 50% recovery in the posted price for crude oil is being treated as a symbol of recovering global demand in contrast to some beliefs that we are heading into a recession, forgetting that there is only a tangential connection between economic cycles and market cycles.

Misreading the Evidence

Many investors and traders are being pitched so-called value stocks. Others are being reassured that disruptive corporate and consumer spending will only be felt in a limited number of industrial sectors. Finally others are relying on flows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) representing long-term bullish investment demand.  All three of these beliefs should be challenged and some or all will be found to be wanting.

Value is not a Trap, but some Value Stocks are a Trap

True value is defined when a knowledgeable unconstrained buyer meets a knowledgeable troubled seller and can agree on terms and price. One should be wary of pitches by a sales force that is part of an investment banking chain that focuses on book value or tangible book value.  I have been a buyer, a seller, and an adviser to buyers and sellers of transactions that produced values to all or almost all involved. In my blog discussion of Warren Buffett’s annual letter I agreed with him in terms of the validity of book value as a measure of investment value.

As someone who is long financial services securities both personally and in my private financial services fund, I do not start my investment process with the financial data. I start with an understanding of the relationships with clients, employees, regulators, and media. I attempt to calculate the cost and the time involved to reproduce the target under investigation. I then look at what would be a reasonable estimate of the costs involved of exiting various elements of real estate and other leases. Severance costs need to be determined as well as crystallizing all of the expected contingent liabilities. A good example of this I heard about recently is a financial operator taking over an upscale supermarket chain and before the deal even closed, selling a meaningful number of stores in a geographical region to a national company who was not really into the same local markets. This buyer was valuing the locations, management and shoppers and not the financials of the stores, assuming that the purchase of these supermarkets would be close to the dollar for dollar shown on its internal statements.

When I sold my data-based operations, I was transferring respected customer relationships with numerous major financial institutions. My people, most of whom had worked for our clients, were a particularly prized asset in my opinion. At the time we were able to expense practically all of our software development thus these assets were not represented on our balance sheet in a transfer of operating assets. I bought a number of modest US and non-US acquisitions, in each case acquiring management was the real goal. I couldn’t have hired them without buying their operations. While the investing public, be they institutions or individuals, may buy on book value-related trades, the professionals don’t.

Most Opportunities are “Disruptable”

A major investment banking organization recently published a well written thirty page report entitled “The Age of Disruption” which did a good job of describing the ongoing process of many companies and sectors that have been or are being disrupted. What caught my eye was that the report listed five sectors that have been the least disrupted with the presumption that they will continue to be protected from disruption. Two of those sectors were business services and real estate. I believe well within a generation if not well before that many of these sectors’ ways of doing business will be distorted if not totally eliminated. One of the major concerns for the taxing authorities in New York State and to a lesser degree in New Jersey and Illinois is that many organizations within the financial trading communities are reporting record revenues with decreasing profit margins. The number of employees is dropping due to technological replacement and greater concentration. I suspect that these trends are happening throughout the business service sector.

In terms of Real Estate the banks and others in the mortgage business have drastically reduced their head count through better controls and technology. Good creative real estate people who can quickly deliver transactions and provide other services should be in high demand well into the future. However, those that troll for listings can be easily replaced through technology. There will be increasing pressure on all costs involved with real estate including title insurance and closing costs. 

Surge in ETF Flows

I believe individuals and the media misinterpret the flows into and out of ETFs and also mutual funds. Most of the volume is essentially a beta play for or against an index. It is my belief that the bulk of the flow comes from traders; e.g., hedge funds and other fast market participants. Occasionally one sees brokerage firms and registered investment advisors committing discretionary or near discretionary money into ETFs. In almost all cases these transactions are part of complex trades (often carry trades) with the use of ETFs on the short side vs. individual securities on the long side. We see very few ETF holdings that are meant to be a permanent holding. Thus their flow data is for trading consumption not investment attributes.

Most mutual fund redemptions are, in effect, completions of self-administered investment programs to meet life’s needs. What gets reported is the net flows out of funds and into ETFs which are not related. As already indicated the ETF flows are principally from the trading community. The net redemptions of mutual funds (until last two weeks) is essentially a function that intermediaries have suitability and churning constraints with mutual funds they don’t have with ETFs. There are numerous undisclosed ways that the investment firms are better off dealing with ETFs than mutual funds. I hope to find out more in a panel that I will chair at the International Stock Exchange Executives Emeriti summit conference in April.

Investment Timespans and Skills

As the regular readers of these blog posts may recall, I have suggested that investments should be allocated to different time horizons by using the matrix of the Timespan L Portfolios^® to cover various time horizons between the immediate cash needs all the way out beyond our current lifetimes.

In building these custom portfolios there are different investment skills required to buy, hold, and sell securities. A good buyer is a prudent believer, often of changing conditions both within a particular security and its market environment. A good holder is someone who diligently follows trends and is quick to determine whether any variation is acceptable under the conditions. A good seller is essentially a skeptic that views the present and the future looking for any sign of contrary elements which should alert a sale process.

Applying Investment Skills to Timespans

1.  The first task is to identify whether the security, mutual fund, or investment manager is already on board or just one under consideration. (If you already own it you may have to do something, if you don’t you have the luxury of not doing anything.) In the case of the short-term operational portfolio one is very concerned as to whether on a total return basis the principal will be substantially intact during the short-term duration of this portfolio. Liquidity becomes very important in this analysis. One probably should not add to this portfolio unless it makes this portfolio more liquid and stable.

2.  In terms of the replenishment portfolio which is designed to provide capital to the exhausted operational portfolio, this portfolio has a limited duration in the four to seven year range and presumes at least one if not more down years. The critical skill for this portfolio is the diligent holder who is very alert to any variation to the outlook for any part of this portfolio. An appropriate risk balance is necessary to insure that the replenishment portfolio can and does perform its job well.

3.  The third portfolio type is the endowment which has a timespan from the end of the second portfolio to the end of the power base of those who are in command at the time and would be often in the ten to fifteen year range. All three of the investment skills  (buy, hold and sell) should work on the third portfolio.

4.  For  the fourth portfolio both the buyer and seller skill sets are important. One wants only those investments in this portfolio that look in the long-run to perform materially better than the market and when they don’t they should be replaced.

How Do I Come Out?

Recognizing that t the only thing I can promise my accounts is that I will be wrong time from to time and hopefully that I will correct quickly enough so that the client is not fundamentally hurt. With that as a caveat:

•For my conservative clients, I would be reducing risk in the operational portfolio as markets became more enthusiastic.

•For the replenishment portfolio, I would use periodic dips to raise  my market risk exposure a little bit.

•The Endowment portfolio should not be particularly market trend oriented, but should focus its attention on viable quality leaders.

•The Legacy portfolio should look for the survivability of disruptive companies.

Question of the Week: How are you addressing the market as a temporary rally, the beginning of a market upsurge, or a distraction?

Please let me know

________   

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