Investment Implications of November’s Inflection Points

There is a good chance that when we look back at November 6^th to November 14^th, 2012, the period that includes the US election and the Communist Party Congress in China, we will recognize an important secular inflection point.

The key was to sell

There are three time scale references that are useful in looking to the future. The first is that the media and other pundits focus primarily on the tactical or temporary time slots; e.g., when in last week’s post I recommended selling on the day after Election Day. I was wrong that there might have been a relief rally on the basis that one unknown was now known. The key to the recommendation was to sell because of the large number of remaining unknowns which were not likely to be decided until the spring of 2013. On a short-term basis the decision to sell last week was correct. Several astute investors have informed me that they reduced their 60% equity allotment to 30% on Wednesday. Another smart investor decided not to take advantage of the drop in stock prices as there were too many unknowns.

Cyclical periods

The second time frame (and the one most used by institutional investors and members of investment committees) are cyclical periods which go on for a few years. Election cycles, crop cycles, fashion cycles, economic cycles and market cycles are examples of outside forces that somewhat predictably influence market prices and portfolio returns. To participate in these cyclical periods, consultants like three years, older CEOs prefer five years and younger CEOs favor ten years as calendar periods to capture most of the other cyclical behaviors.

Always is a long time

For those of us who are managing money for succeeding multiple generations and/or institutions who believe in their eternal lives, secular time periods are more appropriate. The demographic trends, the technological changes and long-term medical developments are some of the factors that impact secular growth rates and the attractiveness of various investments. I have always been more focused on secular changes than shorter term phenomena, particularly today. I am writing the first draft of this post Saturday night, the 10^th of November, the 237^th  anniversary of the US Marines Corps. Marines believe in lots of practical virtues, but our motto is Semper Fidelis, which is Latin for ‘always faithful.’ Always is a long time and it is from this background that I look to our future, including our financial future.

November Elections

In a period of under 10 days the US and China, the two largest economies of the world conducted elections (albeit differently) that may be viewed as inflection points to the future.  The practice of analysis rests heavily on an examination of past actions. There is a well-documented history of the rise and fall of empires, or if you prefer, dynasties. The characteristics of large empires that go into declines over many years, and in some cases centuries, start with public displays of moral decay, demographic changes that create distrust between elements of the population, excessive spending by central governments, inflation leading to the practical devaluation of the currency and weak political leadership which translates into too cautious military and naval deployments. While empires fall because of their internal problems, they are finally subdued by new empires that are led by hard-working populations that want more. Often the rising empire is to the east of the falling one.

The victors in the US election and the California Proposition 30 referendum ran on the platform of raising taxes on others, temporarily defined as wealthy income generators. Few of those who supported these policies stopped to think that in the long run these impacts will be self-defeating. Ultimately, if the wealthy do not physically move, as from France to Belgium, California to Nevada, US to Singapore, or change their cost structure (employing fewer people), they will raise the prices for their goods and services. Some of the price increases will be disguised as reduced services and support, as well as less quality. This phenomenon is called inflation. We know that the impact of inflation tends to be retrogressive. The poor will suffer more than the wealthy. Central bankers around the world desire inflation which will lead to the practical devaluation of our fiat currency compared with hard assets. We are setting up a weak dollar, which will be dangerous if combined with a less capable US military/naval force.

To the East of the US is China, beginning the installation of the fifth generation of its collective leadership this week. The composition of the Politburo Standing Committee (expected to be seven) was determined by the retiring fourth generation leadership, and to some extent the third generation leaders. On November 9^th, China Daily published an advertisement in the Financial Times as to the progress that has been made under the fourth generation. The results compare 2011 data with that of  2002, which can be summarized as follows:

·        Percentage of Urban Population: 51% vs. 39%

·        Private Vehicles: 79 million vs. 10 million

·        Foreign Students: 293 thousand vs. 86 thousand

·        Fortune 500 Chinese Companies: 69 vs. 11

·        Refrigerators per every 100 rural families: 62 vs. 20

·        Cell Phones per every 100 rural families: 180 vs.15

and many other measures of physical and financial progress.

The expected fifth generation leaders have prepared detailed plans which have apparently been approved.

Investment Implications

Near-term (tactical) events move markets; thus volatility will pivot on news from both Washington and Europe. While stock market volume will probably remain relatively mild, there will be an increase in selling by taxable investors trying to avoid higher capital gains taxes. It is possible that the number of insistent sellers could create some bargain prices.

Cyclical investors should recognize that the odds are that an economic cyclical recovery has already started; led by housing, replacement/replenishment cycles, Sandy-induced repair and rebuild needs and perhaps some longer-term attention to prevent severe damage from future natural disasters. Casualty insurance stocks will get a boost when they announce their premium increases.

The secular investor needs to recognize that the next generation is going to hinge on the opportunities and problems emanating from China. Successful investing in China is problematic for us who are used to Western accounting and contract law. However, there are three other alternatives. There are some mutual funds and other institutional investors who may well be able to be successful investors in China. A second alternative would be a handful of US, UK, and European companies that expect a large part of their future growth will come from China. The third alternative would be to invest in those areas that can be critical to Chinese growth, such as Africa, Australia, Brazil and Mexico.

One secular trend identified by Sir John Templeton years ago is the shortage of high quality shares to buy. The combination of cash acquisitions and stock buybacks is reducing the pool of available shares for purchase. To a similar degree, the credit problems facing many bond issuers have reduced the amount of the highest quality paper that is available. As these needs become apparent, I have no doubt that the investment and commercial bankers of the world will try to fill the void; the question will be the quality of the new paper. Under these conditions, and I speak with bias as an owner of shares in a number of investment bankers, I would rather own them than the paper they sell.

It’s your turn

What portion of your investments do you assign to your tactical, cyclical and secular buckets?

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Beyond Near Term Investing: How Much For Brains?

Luckily for me and I hope for you, thoughts once launched continue under development as people react and additional information becomes available. I am very blessed as I am regularly in receipt of many stimulating investment papers and articles of importance.

Last week’s blog post focused on the relative value of my personal accounts' 40%+ investment allocation outside the US and the expenditures to support education for various members of my family.

This week I was privileged to read three articles and a personal email that contributed considerably more depth to these thoughts.

Top Test Scores From Shanghai Surprise Educators

The above was the headline in an attachment to the always interesting, thought provoking and occasionally correct “Ten Surprises” by Byron Wien of Blackstone. (Disclosure: I have known Byron for the more than 50 years and have served on boards with him.) One of the reasons Byron was pessimistic long term as to the future of the US was the poor test scores earned by 15 year-olds in the US relative to others around the world in 2009. The tests were given in Science, Reading and Math. In each case, the United States was far from a leader, above average in Science and Reading but below average in Math. There were thirteen countries that did better than the US students in all three tests. In order of their Math rank they were: China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, Netherlands, New Zealand, Belgium, Australia, and Estonia. (I will be happy to supply my work sheet on these results if you contact me.)

Why Chinese Mothers Are Superior

Amy Chua, a professor at the Yale Law School wrote the above titled article for the Wall Street Journal. The article stressed the very rigorous discipline Ms. Chua applies to her two daughters, not allowing any outside activities and focusing all of their attention on repeated or rote work. For the daughters and their Mother the long focused practice sessions seem to have worked.

Rereading the list of superior test-taking countries, I can not avoid the recognition that the first four locations had strong Asian mothers present. One can add the seventh place Japan to this list of enforcers of scholastic discipline. There were a number of western countries that also did well, at least three of these have long winters which are good for long study hours. I must admit as a “civilian Marine,” (the newly coined term for those who no longer wear the uniform), the use of rigorous discipline and working during dark hours rings true to me.

Over the years I have had successful investment experiences in practically every one of the thirteen high test-scoring countries. Byron Wien was concerned that in the long run, test scores could undermine the intellectual leadership of the US. Three of our family’s college students, attending good universities, report that often the leaders in their various classes come from Asian homes. I hope many of them stay here and produce for this society. As a Trustee of Caltech, I am conscious of the number of brilliant students who come here on student visas and are forced by our immigration policies to return home with the extensive knowledge that they learned here.

I wonder whether we need to put a higher value on those companies that can attract the brightest on a global basis. The ability to get young brains may be of more value than the companies’ current cost of capital and resources.

The Next Decade : Where We’ve Been…And Where We’re Going

George Friedman has recently published his latest book with the above title. I have been privileged to see his author’s note. I can not wait to read the whole book. However, he is focusing on the tensions within the US between our global, if you will, empire roles versus the roles as a republic. In the drive to produce higher test scores and the creation of a “brainy” society, the simplest way to do it is by enforced discipline that eliminates alternative actions. The risk, according to Friedman, is that we unconsciously replicate ancient Rome or other rigid societies at the expense of the sound alternatives which are the basis of our own Republic.

Perhaps our portfolios should be balanced between the most efficient producers and those who practice creative destruction or alternatives to the present order. These are some of the critical issues that long term endowments and family fortunes need to examine and balance.

Maybe education does work

My youngest son sent me an email which stated, “On January 8th 1835, the national debt was $0.00 (the only time this has happened). Makes you think what would have happened if we kept that balance.” This is from a child of the inflationary 1960s. Maybe either education or age is finally kicking into focus the challenges that will face him and his children’s lives.

In conclusion

There is a lot more to think about in setting investment policy than near term interest rates and forthcoming earnings per share.

What do you think?

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