Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Navigating a New Investment Landscape
Amid Political and Structural Challenges
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
It seems we’ve entered a new phase in the investment and political
landscape, marked by a shift in leadership rhetoric and strategy. Two prominent
U.S. political figures have emerged with ambitious proposals aimed at
addressing global challenges. Their approaches are novel but lack grounding in
the current political and economic structures and are deficient the experienced
teams needed to implement such revolutionary ideas effectively.
This lack of preparation extends to their inability to
articulate clear plans for reshaping the tax and legal frameworks that underpin
these initiatives. As history has shown, it’s one thing to suggest sweeping
changes and quite another to navigate the intricate process of execution. The
political structure, with its numerous committees and competing interests, will
likely make swift action both costly and slow.
Further complicating the outlook are legal hurdles. Many of
the proposed changes are bound to face challenges in the courts, and
state-level resistance will add another layer of complexity—particularly as we
approach the midterm elections in 2026. Even the 2028 presidential election may
not yield a resolution to many of these contentious issues, as a single-term
president rarely has the time or political capital to enact and sustain
transformative change.
Internationally, the situation is equally fraught. Most
foreign governments remain unpopular with their own citizens and their policy
maneuvers could further complicate U.S. domestic politics. This interplay
between global and domestic pressures creates an unpredictable environment for
investors and policymakers alike.
Education: A Critical Bottleneck in U.S. Productivity
One structural issue underpinning these challenges is the
state of education in the United States. From pre-K to PhD programs, our
education system struggles to produce workers equipped with the skills
necessary for a competitive and productive economy. This shortfall is one of
the reasons U.S. productivity lags behind its potential, especially when
compared to other advanced economies.
Leadership Development: A Missed Opportunity
Another critical issue lies in how we cultivate leaders,
particularly in business. Too often senior managers are not given the
opportunities they need to learn, adapt, and ultimately succeed. This is a
lesson I’ve come to recognize in my own small business. In hindsight, I’ve been
guilty of not providing my junior team members with enough hands-on experience
to develop their skills fully. This shortfall isn’t unique to my situation, it’s
a systemic issue across industries and is one that hinders the ability of
future leaders to thrive.
Final Thoughts on Political and Economic Uncertainty
Navigating this era of political and economic uncertainty
will require a combination of patience, adaptability, and strategic foresight.
While the challenges are significant, they also present opportunities for
investors and leaders who can anticipate changes and position themselves
accordingly. As we move forward, it’s crucial we address foundational issues
like education and leadership development — both of which are essential to
building a more resilient and productive society.
Multiple Changes on the Horizon
A new administration will usher in a number of changes, adding to those already in place but still in their infancy. These changes are significant and will likely have an impact on us all in some way or another. They present investment opportunities and some risk, so it behooves us all to be aware of them.
Interest Rates
The market sold off on Friday, largely as a result of good
employment news signaling a decent economy, causing investors to fear a good
economy getting in the way of future Fed rate cuts. However, there is debate among
others concerning the necessity of further interest rate cuts, as the economy is
reasonably strong, and interest rates are already below historic norms.
Longer-term Treasury rates have continued to rise alongside Fed
rate cuts, as future government debt refinancing needs put upward pressure on rates.
While higher interest rates will be an obstacle for businesses to overcome, a
good economy should provide opportunities for businesses to excel.
There is a misunderstanding that interest rates are an
initiator of change. This is a problem brought on by the failure of the
educational system. From pre-nursery schools continuing on through to
PhDs. Important changes in the global direction of the economy are caused
not by top-down thinking of governments, but by the success and failures of
commercial ventures, starting with small businesses.
Long-term investors need to pay attention to the edges of progress
and the failures of business. For investors the focus should be on the
development of people working at the edge of progress. This is not to say
that small businesses are good investments, but they are change agents in terms
of progress and that is where intelligent focus should be placed. We welcome
subscribers’ views in contradiction and occasional support of these ideas.
Technology
We are in the early stages of a significant technological revolution,
with AI, robotics, and quantum computing likely to change the world in ways we
can barely conceive. The investment implications will likely be significant.
However, what it does to employment around the world is an open question.
Energy
An energy renaissance is on the horizon, not only for fossil
fuels, but for nuclear energy too. Small-scale nuclear power plants are increasingly
being considered by global businesses in anticipation of the increased energy
needs required by our new technological future. Small scale nuclear is now
being embraced by the left and the right, so it is very likely we will see some
of this trend materialize. Increased energy production and lower energy costs should
be a boon to business.
The Middle East and Ukraine
We could see peace restored in the Middle East and Ukraine
as a new administration with different ideas enters office. Peace in these
regions will lead to the necessary rebuilding of homes and infrastructure. It
remains to be seen where the funds for rebuilding will come from and what
global political deals will be struck to make that happen. While this will be a
burden on governments and taxpayers, businesses will likely find new
opportunities.
The Panama Canal and Greenland
The potential threat posed by China’s control of global
choke points has raised the issue of control of the Panama Canal and Greenland.
The Panama Canal is an important trade route for the US and its control cannot be
allowed to fall into the hands of an increasingly aggressive China.
Greenland is expected to be an increasingly important trade
route, especially as global warming continues to heat up the planet.
Additionally, Greenland has a number of minerals and metals needed for a
technology driven future. The control of both the Panama Canal and Greenland will
likely be significant global topics of discussion in 2025, with investment
implications further in the future.
California Fires
The California fires have been devastating in their scale
and impact on people’s lives. Over 200,000 people have been displaced and over
12,000 homes and buildings have been destroyed. The emotional and financial
cost will be significant. Rebuilding will not come soon enough for some people,
and they may just find it easier to restart their lives elsewhere.
The cost of rebuilding will place a financial strain on all
participants: insurance companies, Los Angeles area cities, the state of
California, the Federal government, and people with inadequate insurance. The
fires may even change the political landscape, refocusing California voters on
bread-and-butter issues rather than social issues. Much like the rebuilding in
Ukraine and the Middle East, the rebuilding in California will result in costs
to government and taxpayers but will also present business opportunities.
Final Thoughts on Changes
Change is often uncomfortable and most of these changes will
not be implemented without some problems along the way. However, change also
comes with opportunity and those who embrace it will be the beneficiaries.
Uncertainty often makes the market nervous, so buckle up, it will likely be a
wild ride.
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