Our Wishes & Perspectives - Weekly Blog # 817

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Our Wishes & Perspectives

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

  

 

 

Wishes

Our wishes are the most basic of all, that you and yours will be happy and safe in the new year. The safety we wish for includes your physical, emotional, and financial safety.

 

Current and future safety are linked as we transition through the number of future periods. The number of future periods depends on the number of futures you are concerned about. As we manage money for people and institutions, we look both at the near and longer-term impacts.

 

In reading the rest of this blog, don’t focus on whether or not you agree with our conclusions. Focus instead on the logic that makes it possible for the conclusions to materialize.  

 

Each of us is perceptively different, as we have diverse elements of responsibilities, net assets, and personalities. Consequently, each investor should make his/her own personal decision. I am interested in learning how you reached your decision, as I contemplate new topics to write about. 

 

Guides to the Future

Every analyst is in some respect a historian. Since we don’t know what the future will bring, we search the past for clues about what the future holds. I find the following three quotes useful when thinking about the future.

 

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

 Mark Twain

 

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”                           

Winston Churchill

 

“Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

John F. Kennedy

 

Two Thoughts on the meaning of 2023

It was a discordant year, with the equity markets rising on a weighted basis (measured by market indices). The economy was flat when inflation is taken into consideration (GDP through November +3.03% and CPI +3.16%. The number of units sold was flat, with higher prices and margins). Large and smart employers are laying people off while sales are still satisfactory.

 

Split Political Structure in 2024

The current Senate and House are run nominally by different political parties, with a larger than usual number of members announcing their retirements. This suggests it will be difficult to see many controversial laws passed. The Supreme Court will likely continue to question the authority of the administrative government. It will also be difficult to get an expanded spending package passed. (Even if something gets passed, the US will join most other governments trying to tap the bond market at reasonable rates, likely crowding out commercial and municipal needs.)

 

There is an invasion on the southern border of the US. Is this an economic “fifth column”? (During the Spanish Civil War, the winning Loyalist General referred to his group of saboteurs in Madrid as his fifth column.) They were more important in capturing the capital than the four military columns he had surrounding it. (The importance of this war should be important to the US, as the Spanish War supplied new tactics used by the German Army and Airforce in WWII.) Millions of illegal immigrants have crossed the US border.  My guess is that one military division of 20,000 could be persuaded to follow the commands of a known enemy.

 

The bulls believe the market has begun a new bull market phase, or at least a continuation with new leadership. Their bet is on a rotation away from mega-caps to small-caps. Selected small caps stand a better chance than others, particularly services companies who can help corporations and consumers lower their costs through the application of technology and selected imports. Some of these small companies could be attractive acquisition candidates, providing leadership to tiring large corporations. The math could be described as 5 (large) + 1 (small) = 6+4 or a combined 6 that becomes 10. The risk to an institutional sized buyer in the small-cap market is that these stocks are much less liquid than their normal large-cap investments. Consequently, they must take a much larger portion of the available stock.

 

2025-26 Opportunities

To score the winning shot, one must follow Wayne Gretzky’s dictum of not skating to where the puck is, but to where it will be. I’m suggesting this is how you should build a portfolio today, as the present occupant of the White House will either not be there, or a second Mrs. Wilson will be managing a lame-duck Presidency.

 

The biggest change will be in Defense spending, a shift from the faulty diplomacy of sending unimpressive Cabinet members to negotiate unsuccessfully. We must reverse the quiet disrespect of our outmoded military, symbolized by the lack of other nations joining our Red Sea patrol efforts. The declining value of the US dollar is another indication of the perceived lack of respect for our current leadership. The money for new defense spending will come from curtailing spending on social tasks and redirecting it to prepare for a fight in a two-front war. Thus, I suggest selecting investments to accomplish the goal of protecting the US and our interests.

 

Let me hear your thoughts. 

 

 

 

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Dangers “Smart Money” & Thin Markets - Weekly Blog # 816

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Dangers “Smart Money” & Thin Markets

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Christmas Breaks & Wishes

Like most weekly blog producers, I experienced an early December dilemma. Should I send out my seasonal best wishes to our readers and not produce the final December blog, or write it as usual? Not writing the blog was very tempting, but I then remembered George Washington’s very first military success in New Jersey. He and relatively small number of Patriots crossed the Delaware River and attacked the British (German Hessians) on Christmas Morning at Princeton.

 

My fear of a similar attack on our securities markets led to my decision to publish the blog. But to all our readers, I extend a very deep and heartfelt “Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays”

 

What Could Go Wrong?

1. I hope nothing.
2. The late December equity markets produced relatively light volume.
3. Below is a racetrack lesson on a not particularly distinguished bunch of horses registered for an unimportant race.

Late in the betting period there is a sudden surge in betting on a specific horse for no apparent reason. The chatter in the grandstand is that it was caused by external bookmakers balancing their betting exposure on a given horse. The presumption being that the clients of the bookmakers “knew” something that improved its probabilities. This surge was labeled “smart money” by those at the track. Sometimes, but not always, the chosen bet wins.

 

My fear is what market analysts call the distribution effect, because they understand what a third Obama White House doesn’t. That the initial absorber of sudden volume often tries to immediately offload as much of its liquidity volume on other players as possible. This secondary distribution can be repeated numerous times, enlarging the impact.

 

As happened during the last 2 hours on Wednesday, where all the major US stock indices fell significantly. Some observers pointed to a large trade, a series of large trades of a highly leveraged short-term derivative. By the end of the day individual securities were down multiple percentage points. Early Asian markets fell, but by the end of the trading day losses were small. On Thursday stocks rallied almost back to Wednesday’s opening and on Friday there was a slight gain.

 

This attack, like the one on the “British forces” at Princeton, did not have a material impact on the war other than to buoy up Washington’s spirits and please the Congress in Philadelphia.

 

I have no idea whether there will be other “smart money” surprises during the remainder of the year, but at least I am prepared.

 

Other Inputs Could Be Important

1. 58% of US households owned stocks in last 3 years, up from 53% previously. This included 21% from direct owners, up from 15% previously. (At some point this could have political implications). Only Estonia has a greater commitment to stocks.
2. All 3 major stock indices still have November price gaps.
3. Bankruptcies have risen to over 30% in the US and to over 25% in Germany.
4. Global deal flow is at a decade low.
5. PJIM forecasts sluggish growth for the next couple years.
6. FEDEX margins were materially down on a slight sales drop.
7. Many Wall Street bonuses were flat or up marginally.
8. The White House is considering an increase in Chinese tariffs, another pro-inflation move.
9. China announced new wide-ranging rules to reduce the number of on-line gaming hours. Not only did this wipe out $80 Billion in market value from the two largest Chinese game providers, but it also impacted other Chinese stocks and numerous stocks in other markets.
10. A picture is often worth more than a thousand words. The drawing room where the US President meets foreign leaders has 5 portraits of former presidents. The largest portrait is of FDR centered among the others. He appears crucial to the current President’s thinking. The similarities are pro-inflation, weak fighting forces, anti-business rules, higher taxes on the most productive, and isolationist policies. All of which turned a recession into a depression and encouraged our enemies. 

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Searching For Answers - Weekly Blog # 815

Mike Lipper's Blog: Reactions from a Contrarian - Weekly Blog # 814

Mike Lipper's Blog: 3 Senior Lessons + Upsetting Parallel - Weekly Blog # 813

 

 

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Searching For Answers - Weekly Blog # 815

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Searching For Answers

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

Neural Basis for Preferences

In one of the laboratories in the Humanities and Social Sciences Division of Caltech, a former post-doc led a paper showing a neural basis for making aesthetic preferences like qualities-contrast, hues, dynamics, and concreteness. (Kiyohito Iigaya, is now an assistant professor of neurobiology at Columbia University’s Irving Medical Center.) A similar type of pattern recognition is what successful investors use in selecting investments, such as relative price, operating free cash flow generation, management process, investment sponsorship, competitive position, and future changes in these and other qualities.

I am a senior trustee at Caltech and a member of the board of Advisors of CUIMC

 

Painters, like Picasso, were successful investors in both art and other investments. However, the tracking of investment qualities is insufficient to produce a record of continued investment success.

 

At least two additional qualities need to be tracked.

1. Analyzing changes in the structure of the investment market, in terms of flows and after-tax profits.
2. The perceived multiple needs of the investor.

 

The eternal job of the investor is to evaluate these and other qualities relative to each other. There is no precise ranking information on these qualities, which makes it difficult for quants to use.

 

It is with this as a background I look at elements each week. The remainder of this week’s blog is devoted to some of the highlights that guided me in making multiple investment decisions. I am interested in which factors are important to you, and whether you disagree with my reactions.

 

More Information Does Not Appear to Help

More information should reduce the number and magnitude of investment surprises. But it does not seem to help. The problem could be that the information is distributed unequally. Those with an information delivery advantage, but without sufficient capital or ownership, can have limited impact on price gaps. In accessing the situation, one difficulty may be understanding the veracity of the information at the moment of discovery. In highly speculative markets and issues, there are often more false rumors than real, actionable information. (In terms of the current market information regarding the next interest rate change, it could be wrong 6 times in a row.)

 

Banks & Brokers Cut Staff

State Street is the latest company to announce the layoff of 1500 employees. These actions do not instill near-term confidence in investors in the overall market.

 

Is Value Investing Essentially a Trade?

The fundamental principle of value investing is the current price being substantially less than the current or projected future price. In the mind of the investor this value gap is temporary, because if it is not closed there is no benefit to the purchase. Value investing is therefore a trading strategy, or a two-step move. Contrast this with investing for growth, which does not require a terminal sale except for a change in investor circumstances. This distinction has a definite impact on the timing of the purchase.

 

“Happy Talk” Motivation is Critical (Viewpoint)

Years ago, when each town had a thriving local newspaper, its publisher/CEO was a powerful person locally. Recognizing that elections create advertising demand; a lot of editorial space was devoted to newsprint.  Locally owned papers eventually disappeared and were replaced by chains, and increasingly by broadcast media. They were the beneficiaries of centrally controlled advertising revenue. The media provided much airtime to elections, with the most focus on presidential elections. In many cases, profits from presidential election-year advertising helped carry them through the other three years. Because the majority of listeners were lower income, Democratic Party spending was higher. The owners were conscious of this phenomenon, and it impacted their actions, with the bulk of the coverage/advertising focusing on economic “happy talk”. That is why “news” coverage today is more positive, and often wrong.

 

Interpreting a Signal Can Be the Opposite

The acquisition of one company by another for stock could signify that the board of the purchaser believes owning the acquired stock is better than investing in their own. An interest rate cut by the Fed could also signal a concern about the direction of the economy, or a shift in the importance of the second mandate, full employment. In other words, be careful what some wish for.

 

Personal Tax Rates Are Important

Similar to the selection of art purchases helping make security selections, foreigners can remind us of the importance of US personal tax rates. Shohei Ohtani signed a baseball contract with a gross value of $700 million. In the early part of the ten-year contract, he will be paid just $2 million per year. (He expects substantial product endorsements and other income during that period.) He will receive the other $68 million per year, without interest, when he is 50 years old. (I assume without the burden of US taxes). I wonder if he’s available as a tax consultant, as he came up with this approach.

 

“Long-Term” Different Meanings

Reliability is a characteristic many investors look for in their selection process. In the US, most investment intervals have more gaining than losing periods. The sizes of the gains are also larger than the majority of the sizes of the losses.

 

All markets move in cycles. Thus, a five-year period usually has one complete cycle and parts of another, if not two. With only 20 quarters or just 5 annual numbers, I find the number of observations too limited. The SEC in its wisdom requires mutual funds to show year by year results, overall period performance, and the best and worst quarter. Numbers nerds note that the public is given 12 slices of data. I would prefer to have quarterly data for the life of the fund, which would be 40 slices for ten years.

 

The economy has generally grown since the end of WWII, which might not continue in the future. Consequently, I am much more interested in seeing what actions, if any, were taken in negative periods. Particularly, what portfolio holdings were reduced or eliminated and how much that cost the fund in recovery periods.

 

There is one medium-sized fund group which indicates it invests for the long term, which they define as 3-5 years. We would not use this fund for most taxable investors if over that short a period it replaced almost all its starting portfolio.

 

15-Year-Olds Will Rule

At some point the 15-year-olds youths of 2021 will be part of the ruling class in many, if not most, countries. In 2021, thirty-seven countries took standardized tests in math, reading, and science. Three countries tested top three in the three subjects: Canada, Estonia, and Japan. Due in some part to the pandemic the US dropped 13 ranking spaces in the three tests, or roughly three-quarters of a year, to finish sixth on an overall basis.

 

As a grandfather and great-grandfather of 5 young ones, I am worried about the future we are leaving them. Our current educational system is the result of a deteriorating educational process that has been in decline for some time. Recently, a teacher on maternity leave at a “good school” revealed that she had decided not to return to the public school system. A real-life casualty of the dysfunctional system she worked under.

 

What scares me is the US has the most expensive educational and health systems in the world but does not lead the educational rankings in the world. A long-term oriented society that prizes excellence is necessary for world leadership. For the protection of our young people, we must on a long-term basis increase our exposure to the best minds and culture in the world.

 

Investment Conclusions

1. Portfolios should be broken into sub portfolios based on needed investment periods and risk tolerance.
2. The portfolio segment with an expected near-term payout should focus on trading rather than investing. Fixed income holdings should have a maturity range within the allocated payout period and only be invested in the highest quality non-US government paper. Equity should be invested in listed 2-4% yield common stocks or funds. The one exception would be Berkshire Hathaway, which is building a portfolio for the heirs of its shareholders.
3. The next portfolio segment builds a retirement portfolio with high quality, low cash dividend payors, and no fixed income except for payment reserves.
4. The estate portfolio segment should be invested in high quality equity modest compounders, avoiding above average yields. Use an appropriate equity strategy in an unleveraged ETF rather than a mutual fund if it makes sense, but only for one-half of your fund investments.

 

Share Your Thoughts

Do these topics and format make sense for you and how should it be improved?

 

 

 

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Reactions from a Contrarian - Weekly Blog # 814

Mike Lipper's Blog: 3 Senior Lessons + Upsetting Parallel - Weekly Blog # 813

Mike Lipper's Blog: A Cyclical World + Consistent Results - Weekly Blog # 812

 

 

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Reactions from a Contrarian - Weekly Blog # 814

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

Reactions from a Contrarian

 

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 

 

 

Surprises Pay More Than Consensus

Consensus, when right, is not highly rewarded. Contrarians are correct less than consensus suggests but they receive greater rewards. Over time, the bigger winners start out by being relative loners. With these guidelines, I review my reactions to media comments. (Remember, my absolute right to be wrong.)

 

The Indices are at yearly highs; therefore, we have entered a “bull market.”  Not necessarily! In some cases, these are not all-time highs. Additionally, the indices need to be measured in the most valuable currency in order to enter a new market cycle. Trading volumes are also not impressive. We live in a global world with the US dollar declining, so we ought to adjust the peaks and valleys accordingly.

 

Possibly the best summary of market moves comes from Bank of America, which describes it as emotionally bullish but intellectually bearish.

 

When the Fed pivots it will be a seminal event. Possibly, but odds are it will be late. For those predicting a pivot, they are like football fans calling the pivot wrong six times in a row. They could be right, but their odds are no better than 50/50.

 

There are at least three other reasons to question the timing of an interest rate cut.

1. The original ignition of the inflation fire was caused by the Administration pouring an excessive amount of cash into consumer’s hands and restricting domestic trade.
2. Congress pushed the responsibility for full employment to a bunch of financial economists at the Fed, which led to it becoming politicized.
3. Most importantly, the largest factor in the US economy is not the production of goods, it is services. In general, service providers don’t need to borrow money for capital expenditures and inventory.

 

Current Market Focus Does Not Address Long-Term Problems

Almost all the attention of market participants is focused on short-term events, which are expected to determine short-term results. Media performance reporting on minute by minute, day by day, week by week, and year by year results view this as the only essential reality. These short timeframes are essentially important to traders, but of little value to long-term investors.

 

Most money invested in the market is for retirement, or longer. The assumption ought to be that the average worker probably still has 25 years before retirement and a somewhat similar period in retirement. Many institutions can have indefinite lives. Thus, the things that are really important to these investors are actions impacting the long-term progress of their assets and liabilities.

 

One of the reasons good analysts and portfolio managers study history is to get an understanding of market cycles, which are caused by insufficient supply of goods and services in the minds of consumers and investors, followed by periods of too much excessive production. These trends take a long to very long time to evolve. However, their terminal stages often occur swiftly and rarely reverse.

 

Three Trends That Hurt Investors

1. Political skills are paramount over operating skills. Most large organizations are comprised of collections of people with different backgrounds and strengths. Those who rise to the top are most often chosen for their political skills, with less attention paid to their operating and investment skills. These leaders recognize that their positions have finite termination dates, so their decision process is relatively short-term, with little regard for long-term implications.
2. The costs of developing and maintaining military strength reduces the available supply for other funding. There are a relatively small number of nations with significant power. The US has historically cut military spending sharply during “peace time”, as it tends to fall behind the ambitions of autocrats. Considering the current crop of political leaders and their tendency to cut military spending after inflation. Today there is no large military power that has any respect for the current US power base. They however recognize our potential, much like Germany and Japan did prior to WWII, making the world an increasingly less safe place. The leaders of Western Europe recognize that they cannot defend themselves. One leading expert believes that Germany needs 30 years to build its own independent force to safely defend Germany.
3. By far the biggest threat to the US, both commercially and militarily, is our youth. Based on global test comparisons, US students rank below mid-point in math and not close to the top in reading and science. Remember, we probably have the most expensive educational system in the world. To protect professors the US government measures academic college success over six years. In the UK, the normal college period is three years.

 

 Other Items of Concern

1. John Authers, now at Bloomberg and formerly with the Financial Times, believes that we should expect US defaults, particularly of regional banks.  Altman Z scores are the lowest since 1987.
2. China has stopped publishing youth unemployment data. (This habit of putting out just positives raises more questions than answers.)

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: 3 Senior Lessons + Upsetting Parallel - Weekly Blog # 813

Mike Lipper's Blog: A Cyclical World + Consistent Results - Weekly Blog # 812

Mike Lipper’s Blog: Recognizing a Professional: Ratings vs Ranking – Weekly Blog # 811

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

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Michael Lipper, CFA

 

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Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

3 Senior Lessons + Upsetting Parallel - Weekly Blog # 813

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

 

3 Senior Lessons + Upsetting Parallel

 

 Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

 3 Seniors Passed This Week

In age order Henry Kissinger, Charlie Munger, and Sandra Day O’Connor died this week. They were remarkable people who lived good lives, leaving numerous good lessons for life. In general, these lessons can be utilized in our quest for investment wisdom.

 

Henry Kissinger was not only a fountain of geo-political knowledge, he was also a skilled conflict negotiator. Almost every important investment contract could use his skills in finding areas of agreement and more clearly defining the goals of both parties. In many instances these agreements went beyond the headline numbers. This is the essence of a happy deal and trade.

 

Charlie Munger, who I have had the pleasure of knowing for over ten years, was a believer in staying within his circle of competence. However, he grew this circle when he could. He was intelligently patient if progress was occurring. He believed in the value of people over historic financial results, both as customers and workers. (This became important as the country transitioned to a service economy, even for the manufacturing companies. Tesla is much more service oriented than the Big 3, with their own wholly owned dealers doing some replacement work, but very little repairs)

 

Sandra Day O’Connor believed in updating decision alternatives in reaching conclusions. (One of the traditional investment problems is, what is cheap and what is expensive? For investors this requires viewing prices in terms of interest rates, the value of the dollar and other currencies, and evaluating capacity utilization, among other variables.)

 

Upsetting Parallel

Current experience is the critical investment difference between the enthusiasm of youth and inexperience. Young and inexperienced investors treat every event as something new, requiring a new way of dealing with it.  

 

More experienced investors recognize elements that are similar to past behavior patterns. This suggests that very little is totally new, most circumstances are somewhat similar to what occurred in past cycles. Kissinger, Munger, and O’Connor were young in the period leading to the “Depression”. Those of a similar age are dying out or no longer have views that seem relevant. We have not gone through a similar period since WWII, which in part was caused by the Depression.

 

Our educational institutions do not study this period and consequently most people know little about it. Unfortunately, political leaders of today also know little about it. The current occupant of the White House waxed poetic about the FDR period upon entering the Presidency, not recognizing that many of FDR’s ideas led to lengthening the Depression, and probably to WWII as well.

 

Cycles are never absolutely the same, but close enough to raise the possibility, if not the probability, of similar results reoccurring. I will attempt to identify some similar events reoccurring today.

 

Global Economic Growth Slowing Brings Autocrats to Power

World trade has slowed, and populations don’t like it. They look for someone to blame and politicians are only too eager to provide answers, gathering more power for themselves in the process. Prior growth has attracted more immigrants, initially welcomed as low-cost labor. However, their growth in numbers has now become a burden to the existing society.

 

Rising levels of crime will bring more policing power and stronger governments. We are seeing leadership in just about every continent move from the center to extremes on either the right or the left. Pay particular attention to Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, and some elements within the US and Canada.

 

China Changes and the World Feels it

The rate of China providing goods at low prices to meet demand in the US and Europe has slowed. The Chinese have cut back on imports, so China’s net contribution to world trade has declined. Wealthy Chinese had been previously exporting as much of their prodigious savings as possible. This has led to a change in the Chinese government’s attitude. They are now trying to attract foreign investment and are changing a number their rules.

 

The Chinese are simultaneously pouring resources into their defense sector. They have more ships than the US Navy and now have 3 aircraft carriers. They also appear to have state-of-the-art missiles and spacecraft. Like other countries with large standing militaries, they have little respect for current US government forces. However, like both Japan and Germany in the 1930s, they are very conscious of the potential power the US could deploy if it had time to do so.

 

Politicians Using Old Strategies in a Changing World

Good prices vs votes/contributions are the key battles. People want goods and services without regard to where and how prices are generated, as long as they appear reasonable relative to perceived competitors. Technology generally lowers prices through increased production and less human labor. Professional politicians want contributions from labor unions that have negotiated long and large contracts. The reduction in world trade will eventually make many nations poorer, including the US.

 

Target the Lawyers

Charlie Munger performed the switch from law to investment management brilliantly. Goldman Sachs also has a number of successful investment bankers and other executives who started with law firms before seeing green. In their defense, some lead M&A counsels at law firms earn close to investment banker packages, with their growing personal accounts residing at money management institutions.  

  

Warning: If some of the trends mentioned continue, the parallel with the Depression is more than likely.

 

What are you doing to prevent it?

 

 

 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: A Cyclical World + Consistent Results - Weekly Blog # 812

Mike Lipper’s Blog: Recognizing a Professional: Ratings vs Ranking – Weekly Blog # 811

Mike Lipper’s Blog: How to Find the Answer – Weekly Blog # 810

 

 

Did someone forward you this blog?

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Copyright © 2008 – 2023

Michael Lipper, CFA

 

All rights reserved.

 

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.