Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
ARE WE LISTENING AS HISTORY RHYMES?
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –
Pseudo Historians?
Whether we appreciate it or not, we are pseudo-historians because we store knowledge of our experiences, thoughts, or what we’ve learned from others directly or through the media. We call this “Memory”. Recall some important incident that happened to you ten years ago. If it is a pleasant memory, we delight in it and it takes up more space in our memory bank than unpleasant memories. Notice, as we get older and have more memories there is little recognition of mild events. Also notice that when discussing a specific memorial event with someone who experienced it with you, the details are somewhat different than yours. As you discuss the slightly different shared views of the past, it would not be unusual to see that you have sugar coated certain aspects.
Welcome to the world of the historian and notice how two competent people observe the same thing differently. (My personal Queen, my wife, just reminded me that the Queen of England has said “recollections vary”.) Furthermore, most histories are written by the victors or their supporters. Typically, many are called victors for taking some small part in a victory. There are far fewer histories written from the losing side. Few want to be tagged as the reason for defeat. (I wish business schools had extensive courses on commercial failures, as they would be much more instructive than accolades not fully deserved.)
Why am I focusing on the way we learn from historical rhymes in this investment blog? Typical investors believe they have past knowledge they can use to make future decisions. I believe they are not paying sufficient attention to the past, as most investment disappointments are regularly repeated.
Why Now in October?
One of the curses of history is tied to the seasons and sporadic rotation. Without the same cyclicality of the earth’s rotation, we humans evaluate history to understand why we are in our current condition. This coming week on October 28th & 29th, 92 years ago, became known as Black Monday and Black Tuesday. Over those two days the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 24%, with volume reaching the unheard number of 16 million shares on Black Tuesday. As early as March 25th that year the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation. The stock market had been rising for 9 years and had gained 10 times its starting level. Various pundits proclaimed the stock market had reached a permanently higher plateau. (My grandfathers’ brokerage firm was preparing to retire and was closing client margin accounts.) In addition to investment speculation, the farm community was carrying excess debt due to unexpected crop price declines. (There is a debate as to whether the stock market break was the cause of the Great Depression. It potentially resulted from the loss of confidence that swept the nation, as only16% of the US population was invested in the stock market.)
What About Today?
I have little confidence in my or anyone else’s ability to regularly predict the future of markets consistently. What I attempt to do is gather relevant information that may provide clues as to the future. The following list of inputs is not an attempt to persuade, as in a “Ben Franklin sales pitch” which always has more favorable elements. The data points should be noted, but not weighed, as the unknown future is not as much a mathematical game as a psychological one. The following is my list of items that can lead to an investment decision:
Positives in favor of continued US stock Market Gains
- For the markets to move higher, the old Dow Jones Theory requires the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) to confirm the gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In the latest week the DJIA gained 108 points and is close to a new record high. The DJTA simultaneously rose 383 points from a lower base. Railroad and trucking companies are transporting more freight out of burdened ports. Airlines are benefiting from increased domestic/international business travel and are additionally profiting from freight business diverted from ships to meet seasonal supply demand.
- This week, investors using the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) showed their bullishness by pushing 401 stocks to new highs vs 108 to new lows.
- In their sample weekly survey, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) raised their bullish prediction to 46.9% from 37.9% the week before.
- The market has been in a constrained trading range for more than six months. The loss of political confidence has led to a loss of investor confidence, resulting in a massive amount of uninvested cash waiting for a signal to invest.
Negatives Against Investing Now
- Twenty-two out of 88 mutual fund investment objective averages have risen over 60% since March 23rd, 2020, most being the more popular fund categories. Historically, performance exceeding 20% per annum is unsustainable. There are two ways to correct this condition, lengthen the flat period or endure negative performance.
- For the week, the number of new lows on the NASDAQ was 340, more than three times the number of new lows on the NYSE. Due to the relative absence of passive investors on the NASDAQ, I believe their investors are savvier than those on the NYSE, whose investors are more sensitive to volatile cash flows from passive funds and public investors.
- The discussion of Black Monday and Tuesday, plus the length of time since the bottom in 2009, reminds me that excess speculation often leads to a market correction. The big difference between now and 1929 is the big debt bulge not covered by flows is in the government sector (federal, state, and local). Current corporate debt in unprofitable companies is also a problem.
- While public participation in the stock market is much higher than the 16% in 1929, it is comprised mostly of retirement accounts. In the past they have not been particularly sensitive to market moves, but growth in the lack of confidence could see dramatic changes.
Please share with me which you see first, a 50% rise or fall?
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/10/guessing-what-too-quiet-stock-markets.html
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/10/what-is-problem-weekly-blog-702.html
https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-confidence-game-weekly-blog-701.html
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A. Michael Lipper, CFA
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