Mike Lipper's Blog: Melt Up Not Convincing

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Melt Up Not Convincing

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Contrary Evidence Also Not Convincing

Low Transaction Volume, High Chatter

Short-Term Implications

NASDAQ is breaking up. Up volume is leading, while more prices are down than up?
Industrial commodity prices rose during the week, 115.8 vs 114.98 the prior week according to ECRI.
AAII weekly bullish outlook is declining, 36.8%, 39.3%, and 41.4% over the last 3 weeks.
WSJ weekly down prices seem strange. The worst was Natural Gas -12.71%, but the next worst was a -2.82% negative return. This suggests there were few negative prices. Natural Gas prices remained volatile, being up +7.57% the prior week.

Possible Longer-Term Implications

Trump used construction costs for an already constructed Federal Reserve building to raise the costs of the new headquarters. Chairman Powell spotted it. Assume for the moment this was a honest mistake, it suggests that the President’s staff is lacking something. There have been similar mistakes, some of which were part of the reason the courts ruled against various executive orders.
Charley Ellis’ column on David Swensen in the Financial Times listed some of the reasons for Yale’s outstanding long-term record. A long-term focus meant less liquidity was needed and analysis went beyond financial statements to management policies, and well-placed alumni which wasn’t mentioned. I tried to follow his approach.
Most US Presidents have focused on managing the government and society as it was when they came into office. President Trump is the fourth president to make fundamental changes. (The others were Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, and FDR.) Along with the other activists Presidents, the current occupant of The White House wishes to proscribe new ways of thinking to change our behavior. This is what our founders feared, the tyranny of the majority over the minority. Our Constitution and Bill of Rights have built in checks and balances. Consequently, I believe we are going to see more court actions for the rest of this term.

Implications?

I believe it’s going to be increasingly difficult to develop a long-term investment policy as we go through a period of attempted structural change.

What do you think?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Did someone forward you this blog?

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Mike Lipper's Blog