Did Something Happen Last Week? - Weekly Blog # 670

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Did Something Happen Last Week?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Great Discomfort, Almost Panic, Large Growth Funds, Long Treasuries

Market participants apparently reacted to the further steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, with higher interest rates for longer maturities. (This was not a surprise to me, I have been focusing on higher inflation for a while. This week the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index reported a +47.91% rise from over a year over year. Also, my wife noted that supermarket prices are rising.) 

The impact on large “growth” stocks, as measured by large-cap growth mutual funds, declined by mid-single digits for the week. The connection between rising long-term Treasury yields and stock prices for companies with large amounts of cash and relatively low debt, surprised much of the public and some in the media. In theory, growth stocks are valued at what the market believes are their future stock prices, discounted by the cost of money until they are sold. The lowest discount rate used is the yield on long-dated treasuries. Thus, the reaction to the steepening of the Treasury yield curve makes growth stocks less valuable. Approximately ten of these stocks have been the engines of superior price appreciation in large institutionally managed portfolios.

Investors do not reveal the motivation driving their decisions and commentators consequently we use circumstantial evidence to ascribe motivation. As a skeptic, I look for other non-publicized explanations. 

Questioning the Gospel

The new administration has been fortified by the naming of the Treasury Secretary, a former chair of the Federal Reserve and former labor economist. For more than a year the previous administration believed in the long-term continuation of low interest rates. This belief comes from their indoctrination into Keynesian economics and has become the accepted dictum for governments since President Nixon announced, “We are all Keynesian, now”. Without any constitutional or legal authority, the function of government has now been determined to be the management of the economy to produce full employment. 

In John Maynard Keynes’ “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” published in 1936, he laid out the principle of the government (the people) funding contra-cyclical spending, providing money to hire out of work people through deficits or higher taxes.

Apart from the recent Trump tax-cuts, I don’t believe there have ever been tax cuts, other than as a “peace dividend” after a military war. Part of Keynesian policy was to set interest rates low during a recession and raise them in good times. To no one’s surprise there has never been an example of deficit reduction in good times. 

Keynes’ policies resulted in lenders being unable to make up for losses from defaults or late payments, which were critical in restoring the capital of lending institutions. That Keynes came up with this scheme in the mid-1930s is not surprising. In the US and around the world there was a movement toward more authoritarian government. Is it possible that this week’s “taper tantrum” was some glimmer of thought that governments might be responsible for the level of employment through low interest rates under Keynesian economic principles? Only time will tell, but very surprisingly it could happen now or in the immediate future.

What the Market Says?

The first two months of 2021 is now in the record books. The five leading mutual fund peer groups through Thursday night were:

   Natural Resource Funds         +26.38%

   Energy Commodity Funds         +24.80%

   Base Metals Commodity Funds    +18.36%

   Global Natural Resource Funds  +16.37%

   Small-Cap Value Funds          +15.83 %

Clearly, we are seeing energy and base metal prices rising, although some believe it’s not the result of short-term shortages. What is perhaps most interesting are the gains of the small-cap value funds. For years, small caps underperformed larger caps and “value” underperformed “growth”. On a year to-date basis the average small-cap fund has gained more than the average mid-cap fund, which in turn was up more than the average large-cap fund.

This change in performance leadership is broad and meaningful. The NASDAQ composite is leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 in both directions. I believe the reason for this is that most large index funds and closet indexed portfolios focus on NYSE listed stocks in the two senior indices. The more volatile NASDAQ attracts a higher percentage of traders and has a greater number of would-be growth companies.

The price chart for the NASDAQ is completing a “head and shoulders” reversal pattern, with the price pattern of the other indices not far behind. Valuations are high for the S&P 500, which has a price/earnings ratio of 21.5x, compared to 15.8x ten years ago. Also, because of both lockdowns and cash from the government, savings are 20.5% of after-tax income.

Investment Conclusion:

We may be near to both a short-term top and possibly a major revision in the long-term thinking of investors. 

Share your views, please.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/debt-inflation-and-markets-weekly-blog.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/adjust-investment-tools-for-next-phase.html

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Debt, Inflation, and Markets - Weekly Blog # 669

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Debt, Inflation, and Markets

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

I. The Changing Value and Price of Money

As is often the case, when we speak of purchasing a good or service, we mention its cost in our local currency. We don’t view the purchase in terms of unrelated transactions, like a vacation vs. a month’s rent. If we were more intellectually rigorous, we would calibrate the purchase in terms of inflation and currency exchange rates. For those whose wealth is totally used up by spending, this thinking is understandable. However, for those who have savings/investments, this singular way of thinking reduces future wealth and spending power.

With the above predicate, all savers/investors should focus on prices and inflation. An agreed price is the result of supply meeting demand and the costs incurred in the present or future. As in a gunfight, don’t show up with only a knife. For serious purchases, don’t bargain without insight into the history of prices. In the modern world, where services are the largest part of an economy, we have difficulty grasping the costs driving prices. For manufactured goods, the costs of raw materials and industrial goods play a dominate role, excluding the cost of labor. That is why I pay attention to the weekly reading of JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index, which saw a price rise of +44.83% year over year. Part of the price explosion is due to capital expenditures not keeping up with demand. For example, Goldman Sachs is warning of a copper scarcity in the coming months, leading to the largest deficit in ten years. A somewhat similar situation is occurring in the oil patch.

In analyzing inflation, it is useful to recognize who benefits, who hedges and who loses. The pure benefactors of rising inflation are the relatively few that gain from rising prices, due to it being the sole input to their financial well-being. Most people have a mix of prices received and prices paid. Some are naturally balanced, while others hedge offsets. Non-savers/investors who consume all their income are clear losers, as the losses created by the declining value of a currency are the equivalent of a tax. 

The motivations of the Federal government are mixed. When governments pay off their debts with inflated dollars, they net the difference between the purchasing power of the dollar and its contractual payment value. In addition, personal income tax payments rise on the inflated income. (Since corporations pay taxes on their pretax income, which may be offset by inflated costs, their pain of inflation is less.) 

From a political vantage point, the financial problems of the non-saving poor are intensified. However, for some politicians this problem has a “silver” lining, it encourages the redistribution of wealth through the socialization of the concern. In a healthy economy, increases in productivity often create gains that offset the pain of inflation, but US redistribution also leads to increases in jobs overseas and makes international investing more attractive. (The difference between international and global investing is that international investing excludes the home country, which global does not.)

Most investors ignore declines in purchasing power due to currency depreciation or inflation, if they are small. Due to current conditions and global political leadership, it may be prudent to adjust investments.

II. Breaking the “Bubble” Ahead?

Since the beginning of recorded history we have dealt with seasonal cycles and those that last longer. Trading markets adjust due to the relative strength of buyers and sellers, thus markets have they own cycles. Economic and market cycles do not always coincide, and when they don’t coincide the amplitude of the cycles is more limited. As long-term investors, we therefore need to examine the probability of the next declining phase, both in terms of economic and market cycles. In analyzing cycles it is useful to look at elements the popular media and marketers can spout quickly. You should also look for structural changes that can cause the foundation of the cycle to weaken to a point where it collapses. What are the signs I see?    

Economic Structural Issues

Debt is a major accelerator of most economic collapses, distinct from those primarily caused by political, medical, or climate changes. Debt is already growing much faster than the economy, even before the full increase in debt at all levels of government globally is disclosed.  Normally, the banking system controls the policing of debt. However, significant debt is being extended by non-bank credit groups in many countries, including China and the US. The problem with debt is that it replaces equity for temporary uses and speculative purposes, solving short-term needs, but doing little to generate long-term investment. While China and some other countries are spending on infrastructure to produce longer-term economic gains, it is not happening in the US. While both the past and current administration have discussed infrastructure programs, the private sector has not indicated a willingness to provide substantial equity. We don’t seem willing to get little or no cash return for a number of years, before the supposed gusher of profits arrive.

The steepening of the yield curve may be capturing this reluctance. There is great competition to supply short-term funds for margin debt and short-sales by brokerage firms and banks. Bank money market account interest rates dropped below 10 basis points this week, indicating banks have no need to attract new deposits to make additional loans, driving the front end of the yield curve even lower. On the other hand, interest rates at the long end of the curve are now higher than they were last year. One should remember that the published yield curve is for US Treasury paper and long rates for perceived lesser credit should be higher. This drives up the costs of long-term equity dollars, making them scarcer.

This week’s weather in Texas and the Midwest shows the need for much more capital spending on local infrastructure and power generation. The purported growth of electric vehicles will also shift energy needs from oil to natural gas, which should economically be distributed through pipelines, contrary to the present government’s wishes. The combination of new regulation and higher taxes means that many energy facilities will be taken off-line. Fitch believes the removal of these units for economic production will reduce the earnings of the energy companies, which in turn will lead to lower credit ratings that drive up their capital costs. Beyond the energy sector, the expected jump in taxes and regulation will reduce the ability of industry and individuals to generate capital for spending and investment.

Stock Market Structural Changes

Most of the time money follows performance. In the week ended Thursday, an index of the large S&P 500 index funds gained +4.47%. Five other equity fund indices were up at least twice as much:

  Lipper Small Cap Value           +13.13%

  Lipper Pacific Ex Japan          +13.10%

  Lipper Global Natural Resources  +11.66%

  Lipper Science & Tech            +11.48%

  Lipper Financial Services        +10.05%

There is no common denominator in the five leading groups, except they are not primarily large companies and the leading tech companies have less influence of in the portfolios of the largest funds.

The cash positions of many of the leading institutional investors are near a historic lows and the new speculators are heavy users of margin. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly sample survey of bearish sentiment for the next six months has dropped 10.2% (25.4% vs 35.6%) in the last three weeks, with an almost concomitant rise in bullish sentiment (47.1% vs 37.4%). Professional market analysts view these as contrarian indicators and the combination of the three sentiment indicators could be significant.

Investment Conclusion

Rising stock markets have a habit of lasting longer than when structural problems are present, staying “bullish” until something changes mass opinion. I would use this enthusiasm to raise this year’s cash needs. I expect within two years we will have an opportunity to buy valuable investments with more knowledge and at better prices.

   

Important Note: 

I always want to hear from our subscribers, but I particularly appreciate hearing from subscribers that can correct or disagree with what I have written. That is how I learn to do a better job. In response to last week’s blog, a long-time subscriber and investment professional with non-Us experience, correctly noted that the Declaration of War between Germany and the US was declared by Germany a few days after the December 7th attack on Pearl Harbor. It was followed  by the US declaring war on Germany in a reciprocal move. This re-enforces my view that the main impact of an action is often the reactions of others to the event. In this case, if the move by the Germans was to support Japan, it had a different impact on both, as well as the US. In terms of Germany and the US, it led to a two-front war waged by the US, with the political decision to primarily focus on the European War. This in turn gave more force to the industrial mobilization of the US, which probably shortened the overall war effort,  leading to the surrender of both Japan and Germany. One should think through the reactions of others to the moves you make.

Question of the Week: What is the worst for which you are prepared? 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/adjust-investment-tools-for-next-phase.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/is-gamestop-missing-event-weekly-blog.html

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This Week’s Implications for Our Investment Future - Weekly Blog # 668

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

This Week’s Implications for Our Investment Future

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

Late-Stage Markey Surges

Through Thursday, the average US Diversified Equity Fund rose +2.49%. While not followed closely beyond the mutual fund business, it should be. The total assets of these diversified funds at the end of January were $ 10.7 trillion, compared to $16.2 trillion in all equity funds. These are the aggregate investment decisions of the largest group of individuals and institutions, distinct from measures developed by publishers.

Each week I look at the performance of 18 different types of diversified equity funds, which excludes more narrowly based specialty funds. Two observations of this week’s performance are:

1. This week’s performance is unsustainable. If annualized, the performance would be almost 260% for the year. 
2. Within the largest macro fund category, S&P 500 Index Funds gained +1.20% and ranked 17th out of 18.

These observations are like what I have seen or read about in the late stages of a “bull” market. In most markets, the performance for S&P 500 Index funds rank in the middle to top of their macro group. The reason for this is that they are low turnover portfolios, with no cash holding them back in rising markets.

Late-Stage Leaders

If the +2.49% gains for US Diversified Equity Funds is unsustainable, then look at the other four leading investment averages:

    China Region           +5.29%

    Equity Leverage        +5.10%

    Global Science & Tech  +4.22%

    Small Cap Growth       +4.04%

(Remember, these numbers are averages, several funds had substantially greater than average gains.)

Other Late-Stage Observations

• Contrarian indicators include an 8% increase in bullish sentiment for the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey, which now stands at 45.5%.
• 81% of Wall Street Journal prices rose this week. 
• Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ reported a 6% drop in short sales. (The reason a drop in short sales is viewed as a negative is that short sales need to be closed by a purchase, which adds to volume.)
• Market analysts become nervous or at least suspicious when formerly visible trades are hidden. 47.2% of equity trading-volume was not on the publicly traded stock exchanges. While this may lead to some investors getting better prices, it raises questions as to the validity of reported prices. This is not reassuring in highly speculative, volatile markets.

Possible Investment Implications Learned from the Impeachment Hearings with a look at History.

As much as possible, the following observations are intended to help make the investment decisions that will impact future investment performance. Words spoken by elected and unelected politicians are like hourly or daily temperature readings, good for conversations but not to be taken seriously when setting and executing long term investment policies. Actions have longer-term implications for historical purposes and provide some factual inputs in understanding what happened. Far more important are the reactions to actions, usually not by the original actor. 

The following is a historical example of this principle. The Imperial Government of Japan attacked the US naval and airfield installations in Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941.  The attack was timed with similar attacks in Asia to establish a “Co-Prosperity” Asian region, with Japan as its supreme leader. The attack on the US was designed to prevent a well-armed US from coming to the aid of the Asian countries being invaded. They were successful in destroying our aging battleships. (For the only time in recorded history, the US aircraft carriers were out at sea alone.) This was the deed, but the key to the future was the reaction. 

FDR used the attack to declare war on Japan, as was expected. But in addition, he declared war on Germany and the axis allies, which was not expected. (FDR did not want to be considered a President Wilson, who entered WWI two years late and changed the history of Europe, Russia, and WWII. He was conscious that his cousin, Theodore Roosevelt, had won a Nobel Peace Prize for settling the war between Imperial Russia and Japan. Later, he split the presidential vote in the US, which elected Woodrow Wilson as a minority President.) FDR resisted entering the War with Germany for two years, as it would have been unpopular in the US and would have added to the problems of his mismanagement of the economy, which resulted in the longest and deepest depression in US history.

What the Japanese did not count on, was the attack on Pearl Harbor and the saving of our aircraft carriers giving FDR’s the political power to galvanize the US. It enabled him to fight both a World War and push through various social moves which had not been possible beforehand. Regardless of how one feels abut my narrative, there is no question that the reaction to the attack on Pearl Harbor was much different than the Japanese had intended.

Could We Be in a Similar Position Now?

Some have suggested that the new administration is the most politically left leaning group since FDR. The staffing of the Cabinet and administrative functions with former Obama people is like FDR’s brain trust. To see the ambition of the current leadership, read the proposed Antitrust Merger Standards, which would allow the government to decide on all future mergers. (This is a backdoor way to establish an “industrial policy”, which numerous countries have thankfully tried, removing a lot of vital competition in the global market. Another example of the ambition of some in Washington can be seen in the “reconciliation budget” proposal from the Financial Services Committee in The House. It has a current spending plan of $38 Billion and would reach $72.9 Billion by 2031. (I would like to learn how much our taxes will have to rise for this relatively small desire of the party.)

The President Could Be Saved from Himself

Just as reactions to an action can be contrary to the expressed wishes of the actor, so too can the current actions of the President and The Speaker of the House. We are seeing them both play to their own majorities, but they are driving away more of the middle in the process. Considering both of their elections had smaller pluralities than expected, the House Leader is now the only person in her role to lose two impeachments, which could have been won if better managed. The President appears to be creating more unemployment, more businesses closings, and a reduction in the level of education at all levels. We will have to see if any foreign government does anything meaningful we want.

If Not, is a Long Recovery a Prospect?

Without meaningful political changes, an FDR length depression could occur. Right now, I believe most worried investors are still treating the current phase as a cyclical depression that should be complete within four years. That is what I am doing, but it could be a lot longer and I am not prepared for that.

Question of the Week: What is the worst for which you are prepared? 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/02/adjust-investment-tools-for-next-phase.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/is-gamestop-missing-event-weekly-blog.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/are-we-strolling-promenade-deck-of.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Adjust Investment Tools for Next Phase - Weekly Blog # 667

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Adjust Investment Tools for Next Phase

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

As Rules Change, or are Better Interpreted

For many years to the extent possible, I managed the Defined Contribution Plans for the NFL and the NFL Players Association. At the time of each Super Bowl, when asked which team I was rooting for, I replied “for those in the black and white uniforms”. I hoped the officials would see all the relevant plays and correctly interpret the changing rules of the game. As it turns out, that was good training for watching the constantly unfolding investment games between buyers and sellers, various regulators, shifting weather conditions, injuries, mistakes, and pure luck. None of the results were pre-ordained and would be argued about for many years into the future. I approach each market and market phase with the same weariness in preparing for the next market phase. Part of the preparation is examining the terms used to describe the game, and when appropriate improve definitions. This exercise may be particularly important this year, as it appears we are close to a crossroad.

Enthusiasm vs Crumbling Underlying Structure

Many global stock markets are rising in February, despite the historical odds that after a decline in January there is only a 22% chance that the remaining eleven months will produce a profit. The general media, revealing their political views, interpret the various executive orders and other political pronouncements as accomplishing their goals, and see an economic expansion beyond the release from the lockdowns. It could happen, but the odds of complete success are unlikely. 

The current small-cap +5.03% and emerging market +3.07% leadership in January is like other late stages of the past. Fixed income funds often lead equity funds in terms of direction. For the year through Thursday night, the average S&P 500 Index fund was up +3.16% vs -2.95% for the average General US Treasury mutual fund. Another worrisome note is the size of margin debt, which perhaps due to short squeeze actions has reached record levels.

A good investor should look beyond stock prices to see a different economic view, which I attempt to do. Large futures speculators are increasing their shorts in copper, Eurodollars, S&P 500 minis, emerging markets, and US Treasury bonds. In recent blogs I mentioned the Industrial Price Index rising compared to a year ago and this week it accelerated to a gain of +33.18%. The bond market recognizes these tensions and the yield curve has continued to steepen. Even the Congressional Budget Office sees that inflation will likely be over 2% by 2023. (My guess is that it will be a lot sooner, raising the cost of financing the politically generated deficit.)

Understanding the Tools of Security/Fund Selection

Headline writers and many marketeers prefer short words to describe complex tools, e.g., “growth” and “value”. These create good pictures or charts, with ever rising growth and ever declining value. Would it be so. As with the changing weather at a football game, conditions change, as do the useful definitions of terms. 

Speculators essentially bet on what others will pay for their shares, bonds, or loans in the future and a successful speculator primarily knows his/her markets. An investor is a partial owner of a company that at some point could be purchased by a knowledgeable buyer. It has been the motivation of buyers and sellers in marketplaces around the world since recorded time. Perhaps in response to the “great depression”, securities analysis became a separate academic subject, distinct from older economics courses. 

Benjamin Graham was a successful analyst/portfolio manager/investor. He was also a good writer as an adjunct professor at Columbia University and worked with Professor David Dodd in writing the first textbook on Security Analysis. Graham and Dodd were primarily interested in avoiding unnecessary investment losses in their writings and emphasized the use of financial statements, particularly balance sheets. In early editions of their six-edition book, they emphasized anticipated liquidating value, an issue appropriate during a depression.

While Ben Graham is often erroneously called the “Father of Security Analysis” and the first value investor, this is not where he and his partners in a closed-end fund made most of their money. The fund became a dominant shareholder in an insurance company which had no real equity left on its balance sheet. What it did have in this period of substantial unemployment was a customer base of relatively low wage employed government workers. They saved and ended up controlling Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO), which Warren Buffett analyzed and eventually bought outright.

Years later I personally had the honor of taking the Security Analysis course under Dave Dodd, but I disagreed with him and believed that growth was an important factor in choosing investments. He  quickly shut me up by indicating how much money they had made on their investments. Years later, as a small entrepreneur, this led me to include growth and more importantly the evaluation of key people in making successful investments. (In evaluating three cases, one had to be closed, another was key to a bigger product, and the third was very successful). As a side matter, I was particularly pleased to receive the Benjamin Graham Award from the analyst’s society in New York for a private matter requiring some investigative skills a few years ago.

Today, when I review financial statements, particularly the footnotes, I have little confidence they will reveal the “true value” of the company. We live in a litigious world and accounting practices are designed to protect the accountant, the underwriter, or the company itself against lawsuits, rather than to ascertain value. However, there are some very good analysts that are pretty good at finding the range of values for a company. These analysts don’t publish their work, as they are employed by investment bankers, private equity funds, or serial acquirers. While they don’t publish, the price of their bids and deals are known, and this sets the market price for similar deals. If I can’t get enough data, I use the multiple paid for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization on successful bids. 

To understand value investing, one needs to understand where the current market is and what is best indicated by the price of deals. These in turn are influenced by the level of interest rates used to discount future growth and the cost of acquisition.

How to Measure Growth

Many believe that any number larger than the previous number is growth. For valuation purposes however, what is useable are growth comparisons. They should deduct inflation, exclude acquisitions, currency changes, and the impact of changes in regulation or competition. To me, each period may be different, so a long period growth rate can be misleading. 

I like to see the consistency of growth rates. There are times when highly variable growth rates leading to above average long-term trends are valuable and times where a more consistent return is more valuable, particularly for accounts that have finite payments requirements. (For mutual funds, we measure both total return and consistent returns.)

What about both Growth and Value?

In truth many companies go through periods of growth and value. IBM, before it changed its name and was under Tom Watson’s management, had so much debt that it was viewed as an underwater stock. Years later, it became the prime example of a growth stock and later still its growth slowed to the point where at times it was viewed as a value stock. Because of various recent changes I don’t know how to characterize it. What I do know, is that past financial history is not of much use to an outside investor. 

Since many companies go through numerous growth and value changes, I favor looking at many periods. However, it is more important to look at changes within the company, including the people hired at the senior and entry level, changes in product/service/prices, and the reaction to competition/regulation.

Conclusions

1. Look at how things are, don’t overpay for history.

2. Expect surprises!

3. Take partial positions initially.

4. Admit mistakes quickly and serially.

Your Thoughts?

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/is-gamestop-missing-event-weekly-blog.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/are-we-strolling-promenade-deck-of.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2021/01/contra-messages-weekly-blog-664.html

Did someone forward you this blog? 

To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com

Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved.

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.