We have lost our very good friend and the first editor of these blogs, Frank Harrison. He suddenly passed on to a place of less pain on Saturday night, July 21st. In the last week of his too short life he contributed to blog 533. At the request of his husband and partner of 40 years Mr. Maurice Lane, we delayed this announcement to his many friends and admirers.
Frank was an essential part of our old firm, Lipper Analytical. As our Chief Operating Officer he made things work for our valued clients and colleagues. Early in his career he was a school teacher for disadvantaged children in Newark, New Jersey. He used the same deep concern and patience with all our people. Frank played an important role in establishing our offices in Summit, NJ; London, England; and Hong Kong, where he developed lasting friendships. He also played a critical role in our original office in New York City and our data center and main product office in Denver. In many ways I either didn't know or fully appreciate how much he made my job in managing the firm easier and better. While he was working in NYC during the week he was commuting back to Massachusetts on the weekends. That became too arduous and feeling we could do without him, he found employment closer to what was now his home state of Massachusetts. We never could replace him.
About ten years after I sold the operating assets of the firm to Reuters, I started to write this weekly blog and asked Frank to edit and operationally manage it. He did a great job for ten years, both in his new "part-time" role and his former role as Chief Operations Officer. He was an excellent media ambassador for us, both domestically and overseas.
With Frank's wide circle of friends and admirers here in the US and overseas, my wife Ruth and I would like to celebrate his life and accomplishments. As Frank liked a party, we are planning one in his honor at the Princeton Club in New York, sometime in the early fall. If you and others that share our high regard for Frank would like details of the party, please email me at aml@lipperadvising.com.
Link to Frank's obituary https://www.currentobituary.com/obit/222721
As Frank would have wanted us to do, we must now turn to the primary mission of these blogs, which is to share various thoughts as inputs to our subscribers’ thinking as they address their investment responsibilities. I will share a few of the questions in my mind.
Thoughts to Ponder
1. Most people are focused on the economic (trade, non-trade barriers, taxes and currencies) plus defense positioning between China and the US. They may not have noticed that perhaps the real immediate battlefield is Europe, particularly with its alignment with Japan. As trade may become more restrictive between China and the US, there will be a shift to increase trade with Europe. As is often the case with increases in trade, it will be disruptive to the local market because some of the import prices will substantially impact locally produced goods and services. It is quite possible that the ensuing negotiated prices and arrangements will evolve into a framework for a series of agreements between the trade war belligerents. This may take some time and thus a series of quick agreements before the US mid-term elections may not be in the cards.
Those that have to agree to trade agreements are managed quite differently e.g. command/control, multi-decision power groups ( i.e. legislatures), and multi-national business and consumer parties (supply chains and marketing/distribution channels). In the end these commercial interests will determine the depth and quality of execution. These are big picture questions.
2. Because of what we buy and use we have become unwilling, multi-national participants. As an individual how do you protect yourself from the decisions that will be made above “one’s paygrade”. How do you profit? What preparation is needed for your children and grandchildren’s generation?
3. What are the penalties of downside and upside expansion of risk assets in your portfolio? I suggest that the penalty for the downside is withdrawing from planned future equity investments and the penalty on the upside is taking on more risk assets.
4. Will technology continue to be a disruptive and deflationary force through much lower prices?
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A. Michael Lipper, CFA
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