Introduction
When everything was
falling in price in August, I suggested that one should start to place orders
to buy some of the "falling knives" which had the biggest declines,
around -20%. These items included commodities and commodity related investments
as well as TIPS. My view was that off a bottom there is often roughly a ten percent
"relief rally" and this was the easiest money to earn in a new bull
market.
In the period from October
1 - 8 , 2015, the following six out of 96 equity oriented mutual fund
classifications' investment objectives produced double digit returns:
Natural
Resource funds
|
+
14.34%
|
Precious
Metals funds
|
+ 13.58
|
Global
Natural Resources funds
|
+ 13.32
|
Equity
Leverage funds
|
+ 12.04
|
Energy
MLP funds
|
+ 11.18
|
Basic
Materials funds
|
+ 10.76
|
As we know the price of
crude oil rose 9% during the week, but there was more to these gains than the
oil price pop. While there was undoubtedly a rush to cover various short
positions, there were some participants that were sensing the potential for future inflation.
More will be needed for the investors in these funds to break even for the
year. Even after the double digit gains for the week, five out of the six
groups shown above were still down double digits. (Equity Leverage funds were down
-9.72% for the year to date.)
Smaller gains were made
in the week by 93 out of 96 investment objectives tracked by my old firm now
part of ThomsonReuters. Only few of these were able to show gains for the year.
These tended to be large growth funds often with meaningful positions in the much politically derided
Health/Biotech group. At least Moody's is concerned that we have not seen the
bottom of oil prices, they have lowered the credit ratings on five US regional
banks which have substantial energy loans outstanding. Being a contrarian I would
watch these for an entry point, as I am convinced that in time the underlying
collateral will be good on
balance.
Even
though we are not traders (as we invest for lengthy periods) we need to be
aware of others in the marketplace. The risk for the trader is that the double
digit that some funds enjoyed fulfilled "the easy 10%" pop expected after
the sharpness of the summer declines. Now the trading question becomes whether
the August lows will need to be tested in order to put in the low for the year,
if we are going to have a meaningful recovery before the US presidential election
year.
We
Don't Care
As long-term investors
we are not very excited by this year's performance unless it has significance
in terms of the implications of meeting our clients’
longer
term payments needs of their distant beneficiaries. Why am I so relaxed at the moment?
First, I believe last week's move was in recognition of some changing attitudes
beyond the "oil patch." As is often is the case, I look to the fixed
income world for guidance. Domestically, taxable
bond fund classifications showed gains, albeit small. These for the most part
were funds that trafficked in lower credit rated paper. For people to bid these
up they could not be very concerned about a meaningful recession. The other
message that I perceived was that
the poorly performing TIPS funds gained while other US Government Bond funds
showed minor losses.
Foreign
Signals
Emerging Market Bond funds,
in local currencies, produced the best returns
among fixed income types by
a wide margin last week, +4.44%; in contrast with Emerging Markets Debt hard
currency issues +1.84%. Bond funds which invested in more developed countries
gained +1.3%. My interpretation of these
results is, at least for the week, that
market
participants were suggesting the meteoritic rise in the dollar was at least
peaking.
Volatility
The
investing public that is glued to the media is fearful of triple digit price
changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Using the somewhat less volatile
S&P 500 since 1928 according to Factset/StockCharts, the days with a 1% (Up
or Down) occurs every four or five days. As a matter of fact I set my computer
alerts to only inform me when prices move at least 2% and don't consider action
below 3-5%. The New York Federal Reserve
Bank is somewhat addressing these concerns in the corporate bond market that
has had bank trading capital reduced by 75%. They maintain that there is ample
liquidity to absorb sudden shifts in prices. (Interestingly enough, they did
not address what in theory is the deepest fixed income market in the world, the
market for US Treasuries. Because of rapid global trading of these instruments
through computer interfaces by non-bank dealers and investors, I am worried.
During hectic periods of unwinding "carry trades" when treasuries are
collateral for borrowings in more exotic paper, I am concerned by the chance
for some indigestion.)
Question of the Week: How
are you addressing this market, did this week mean anything?
_________
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2008 - 2015
A.
Michael Lipper, C.F.A.,
All Rights Reserved.
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Contact author for limited redistribution permission.
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