1776 Can Make Us Independent Again

Historical Introduction

Most Americans believe the single most significant act of 1776 was the signing of the Declaration of Independence. I suggest that when facing today’s economic problems we consider a still more important event that occurred  in 1776, the publication of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations.  (Not to be confused with the very insightful contemporary author and television personality who uses Adam Smith as a pseudonym.)

The two events are very much related. Our Declaration of Independence was driven by the colonists’ abhorrence to the Navigation Acts and other laws of Great Britain that raised the costs of imports into America and restricted the transportation of our exports. Remember the famous Boston Tea Party was caused by the tax on imported tea.

These laws were an outgrowth of the mercantilist philosophy of European governments to promote their own exports and restrict imports into their lands. This governing philosophy reigned between about 1500 and 1800, and was based on the need to get trading partners to ship gold to those countries where they had an unfavorable balance of trade. The importance of gold was not primarily economic, but rather to pay for their constant wars. In the minds of the European leaders, particularly the British and French, this was a matter of survival.

What Adam Smith advocated was that nations should specialize in their production of items to be exported and import those items where they did not have a cost advantage. Over the succeeding generations his ideas were finally accepted.

Today and for some time American Presidents have announced policies that would make the US independent of foreign oil. In response to questions and comments from a number of regular blog readers, I will attempt, in a small way, to play an Adam Smith role.

My biases

I have never seen a totally unbiased report. Most of the authors are not fully conscious of their own biases, particularly those that were inculcated into them at their universities. As we are all captives of our experience, biases cannot be completely avoided. The best we should do is to identify either the biases or the sources of our biases. Mine starts with a college course in Middle-Eastern history, geology and geo-politics. I learned that in Saudi Arabia, the direct lifting cost of a barrel of oil was approximately four dollars and did not change much over the years. From time to time I have invested directly into domestic gas producers to make money or energy-focused mutual funds as an inflation defensive move. When I was lucky enough to become a trustee of Caltech I was exposed to numerous professors who were focusing advanced scientific approaches to find energy and use it more efficiently. These inputs allow me to think about a problem from different viewpoints, and therefore biases. 

Parsing the search for energy solutions

The three main fuel sources of energy are oil, gas, and coal. (For the purposes of this search I am ignoring nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal with the belief they will play an expanding role, but won’t provide sufficient power in the short to intermediate future.) I believe that each of the age-old big three should be addressed individually.

Oil

This is where I put my hat on as a modern Adam Smith. The popular view of Americans from the White House to Main Street is that it is dangerous for us to rely on the importation of oil from those nations that  “don’t like us.”  The fear is that in time of military conflict those that supply us with oil will cut off flow, or at least hold it up for ransom. There are many counter arguments to this fear. First, our military has developed lots of means to defeat an enemy without the need for the quantities of petroleum products required in World War II and subsequent engagements. Second, we have built a strategic oil reserve which is intended for military emergencies. (Not to be used as a politically-inspired price mechanism.) Third, if needed, government agencies believe that there is more oil underlying US government-owned land than has been discovered in the rest of the world.

There is another set of economic arguments which update Smith, the canny Scotsman. If oil is a scarce resource and cannot be easily replaced, we should deplete other countries’ reserves and political power by buying all that they will sell to us. Further, a rise in the international price of oil, while somewhat painful to the US in the short-term, dramatically changes our competitive position in the world. The US is less dependent on foreign oil than Western Europe, Japan and China. If petroleum manufacturing costs for the rest of the globe goes up and we have competitive products at a lower price, the US share of market will go up which can aid our job growth. Based on what we have already seen, the threat of higher priced oil will trigger greater conservation efforts and the development of more efficient uses of energy.

Gas

There are reasons to believe that the US and certainly Canada can be net exporters of natural gas. Other countries are also developing their gas properties. From a strategic viewpoint, I might be reluctant to become too reliant on imported gas except from Canada. Over time I would expect the bulk of our heating requirements will be filled by natural gas. We are likely to see both the military and large trucking fleets switching to hybrid or fully dependent upon “nat. gas.” The environmentalists will need to prove that fracking is dangerous to the neighborhoods of gas extraction and then our technologists will probably find solutions.

Coal

Some politicians have proclaimed that there is no such thing as clean coal. Considering the US has a reported 250 year supply of coal, I hope they are wrong.

If the price of energy goes up, I believe that there will be enough room in the final price of coal for both steel-making and heating to cover the costs of technological fixes that are underway.

Conclusions

Just as 1776 brought forth thoughts and actions that changed the world, I think we are at the point of achieving meaningful economic energy independence in the near-term future as we modernize our thinking.

As is my wont turning to investments, I would suggest investments in stocks of companies that are devoting some of their efforts to new ways to make our search and use of energy more efficient. These areas could be mining and extracting efforts, transportation efficiencies, and battery producers among many other beneficiaries of the application of new and improved technologies. These could include some, but not all, of the major oil, gas and coal companies.

Are you ready to be independent in the new world?  Let me know.

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