Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Our Self-Appointed Mission
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
“The World Turned Upside Down”
“The World Turned Upside Down” played as the British Army marched off the Yorktown battlefield, ending the last military action of the American Revolution.
The Sunday announcement caused me to kill the draft of the intended
blog for this week.
With the letter announcing the end of President Biden’s
campaign for a second term and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris
for President, the whole focus of what is important to investors changed. These
events made me contemplate the meaning of the British army signaling the
end of their military operation in America on October 19th, 1781.
The rest of the world recognized that the US had become a
world power one hundred and ten years later, on the 10th of December 1895, when
the peace treaty ending the Spanish American War was signed. The US became a Pacific
power for a while with their occupation of the Philippines. During the time from
the end of the American Revolution and the end of the Spanish American War there
were other wars, including the bloody Civil War.
While I cannot determine what the critical events will be, or
when they will happen, I expect it won’t be a smooth process. The Democrats are
likely to form a circular firing squad. The Senate will be the center of power,
surrounded by Governors, the money groups, and others who can make things
happen from a protected position in the final
run.
Somewhat later the Republicans are likely to have their own
internal battles between their top-down and bottom-up factions.
While foreign governments and their internal forces were already
influencing US activities and having an impact on US actions, it is more the
case now. In the past it was the Europeans who played this role. Now the Asians
will be the change agents. With President Trump’s desire for a weaker US
dollar, he will have to successfully deal with China and Japan’s internal
problems and also their trade with us. They are the two largest holders of
dollars. China has grown twice as fast as the US for some time, although they
are now close to a contraction. Due to changes in government philosophy, Japan
needs to increase international trade.
There is an increasingly large gap between the politically
oriented stock market players and operating business managements. Quite
possibly, the enthusiastic market players are going to wait to see how the following
events play out, the attempted assassination of President Trump, the withdrawal
of President Biden for his second term, and his endorsement of his
Vice-President to replace him.
The US growth rate of consumer sales has been in decline for
some time, causing executives to cut
employment and dispose of less attractive operations. Companies have also
had to juggle prices, quality, and the packaging of smaller quantities at old
prices.
Preview:
I was preparing a piece on asset sector fund performance
that I hope to finish if the world settles down. Past performance will likely
be an aid in future selection. Perhaps next week.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
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