Stud Poker, The New Swamp Game - Weekly Blog # 661

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Stud Poker, The New Swamp Game

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

The never-ending battle between Principles and Principals for the swing votes is entering a new phase that will impact investors. Since ancient Greece’s limited democracy, historians have described the battle between Principles and Principals for political control in capturing a relatively small number of swing votes. Most historians put us at a disadvantage in analyzing the conflict, as we do not have a useful understanding of what really happened. Most historians rely almost exclusively on after-the-fact comments from those supporting various uplifting Principles, because there are easily available texts joining the believers in the nice sounding principles. The other side, regardless of winning or losing most of the time, leave evidence of the tactical moves that led to their success. Very few people produce a contemporary tale of the emotions that drove them to their decisions. At best we have an incomplete outline of what they did. Human Principals are by nature executors and at best leave a history of their successful deeds.

“Where Are We Now?” 

Regardless of the final result of the two Georgia Senate races, we will be in an era of divided government. Beneath the surface we are likely to see deep splits within both parties, with different factions positioning for 2022 and 2024 elections. In addition, various members need to build or rebuild the “mother’s milk” of politics, contributions. Many need to be seen as advocates for various local interests, which may conflict with the views of the national parties. It is worth remembering that the last national elections were fought primarily over unattractive personalities rather than uplifting principles. (Remember, US voters often express their negative views by voting for the opposition.)

Elected vs. Unelected

The number of elected representatives in Washington are under 600. The number of decision makers in various government departments and agencies are clearly many multiples of the elected people. Additionally, there is the political crowd, including official lobbyists and so-called “think tanks” following questionable principals. For the most part they are permanent residents in what is known as “the swamp”. Not only will they outlast most politicians, they are experts at manipulating the dictates of elected government.

Despite the egocentric nature of those in the capital, outside forces occasionally impede the political will of the elected leaders. The pandemic is just one such influence. Also both technology and economics increasingly have an impact. But let us not forget what is probably the most powerful force impacting almost everything, demographics. 

“The Game”

To understand the game, look at the page count coming out of the so-called “Stimulus Package”. The Democratic Leadership put out a single page of what they believed were their accomplishments. The senate driven bill was in excess over 5500 pages, a clear example of a negotiation by Principals. 

The incoming administration looks to this legislation as an example of bipartisan cooperation. The President-elect’s history in the Senate was not based on initiating legislation but working on compromises. The main bargaining chip in the likely compromise with the Principals is often identified with the letter “C”, or a passing grade. Three of the C compromises, often delivered outside of specific legislation, are Contracts, Clauses, and Circuits and Federal departmental judgeships. Large government contracts with sweetheart provision clauses are often favorable in terms of taxes, tariffs, and regulations. They also regularly secure contributions and votes. Circuit or department judgeships are worthwhile endeavors to instill a “friend” in the court.

Stud Poker Model

Watching legislation go through Congress and the White House is similar to the progress of a single game of stud poker. Stud poker, a seven-card game among a handful of people, was popular among political types for many years. It starts with each participant receiving two cards face down and one face up, followed by a round of betting with some players dropping out. It is followed by three rounds of getting a face up card and additional rounds of betting and/or folding with each card. The seventh card is dealt face down, again followed by a round of betting. One can win by being the sole survivor if all others drop out due to seeing both the exposed open cards and their own cards. You can also win by evaluating the face down cards and interpreting the betting and actions of others. The skill in the game is first assessing one’s own likelihood of getting a good hand, by knowing your own cards compared to the possible hands of others and the impact of their betting. There are two ways to win, have better cards than others or convince them that you have better cards where they fail to match your betting. You buy the pot of all that was waged without turning over your face-down cards. Poker is simple compared to Washington politics, with known and unknown cards.

In seeking a legislative compromise it is important to identify the strength of conviction that a useful benefit can be secured in reasonable time and determine what has been promised to others. Often, the more experienced legislators or their top aides can create an advantage that more junior Congressional members are unable to. 

Let the games begin!!  

What to Do?

As with more questions, it depends on your goals, measurements, and tolerance for disappointment. The answers for most of these questions is very dependent upon the time-period and measurement applied. The shorter the time-period, the less influence of timing decisions. Based on past experience, there have been 25% declines in one year and 50% declines in a couple of years or more. It is the measurement method which causes the most trouble in my opinion. In choosing between a very limited number of alternatives it is easy to measure absolutely, although with a large number relative performance is often more realistic. Most measure by comparing against a mathematical average, which is heavily influenced by the extreme performers. The more mathematically oriented may use the middle result or median in an array, which is preferable to me. With a large universe of competent players I prefer to subdivide performance into quintiles, avoiding the knife edge of quartiles.

I tend to view the performance within any quintile and particularly the third quintile as almost random, with a small number of extreme results being difficult to repeat. When managing in a competitive league that encourages shifting managers frequently, data from the current best performers is often used, not by me. For accounts having stringent absolute payments requirements, I prefer to measure against absolute and relative capital preservation. 

Now?

I prefer to work with long-term investment horizon accounts, where demographics, discipline, savings habits, intellectual-honesty and productivity of the labor force tend to structure my working framework. I don’t make any strategic changes, as some tactical changes will be required due to fundamental changes within the specific investments themselves.

As distinct from the long-term accounts, those that have effectively fixed or semi-fixed payment requirements need to balance the risk of reduced actual or anticipated payments with the generation of future sources of income production. Depending on the specifics of the account and our perspective, the mix between the two motivations is within a 30-70% mix. (This is not an essential prescription to the standard balanced fund’s stock/bond ratio, because both bonds and stocks may have capital risk and appreciation opportunities.)

As we enter the new year, the first of a radically different administration and a shifting power base, investing for the short-term in a competitive environment is going to be difficult. At times investments are priced cheaply in terms of their fundamentals, whereas at other times markets price securities near their probable top. In the last week of 2020 I don’t know whether we are closer to one extreme than the other.

As often the case when I am faced with a decision, I attempt to follow a sales prescription from Ben Franklin’s commercial activities and make a list of positives and negatives. Some salespeople convert these lists into a form of a balanced sheet, which surprisingly almost always has more positives than negatives. Before producing my lists I should identify my anti-momentum bias. Much like at the racetrack, I don’t have to bet on every race or market condition and the bulk of the money I am responsible for is long-term. (Think beyond this decade.)

The US stock market has fluctuated in a relatively narrow trading range this autumn/early winter period. Only after a material market move will we be able to determine if this was the distribution of risk from smart investors to less smart, or an opportunity for smart investors who perceive the near-term future as being materially better than what we have seen in the last four years. Thus, one can say that the current market brings together sceptics and believers. 

As the volume of transactions compared to the number of shares outstanding is low, one can see that there is not an overwhelming consensus view by market participants. Most of the money is invested for the long-term, at least beyond the incoming administration’s period in office. In the last two weeks of 2020, sceptics are selling to protect their capital gains from possible changes in tax rates on income and estates. s Buyers perceive an expanding domestic economy and a less turbulent world.

Positives (Random order)

1. The crowd at The Mall at Short Hills appeared to be larger on the first shopping day after Christmas than the days before the holiday. We guess the crowd had to line up and be temperature tested before entering big brand clothing and jewelry shops. The longest lines were at the Apple (*) store. Restaurants were busy and had lines, indicating that shoppers were committed to spending hours shopping.
2. I believe we are in a somewhat new investment era because of COVID-19 and global technology’s impact on consumption, suggesting our favorite numbers are out of date or out of scale. Key relationships between risk and reward probably remain reasonably constant, but not their number identifiers like P/E, yields, stock/bond ratios, turnover rates etc.
3. Shortages permit big price increases e.g., intra-Asia shipping container prices being up 450%. On a broader base JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index is up 23.87% year over year. 
4. Long overdue stock leadership rotation in favor of small and midcap stocks will bring more capital into a needed sector. Tech focused stocks have returned temporarily to leadership.

(*) Personal position

Negatives

1. 62% of this week’s WSJ roster of prices declined.
2. A consumer confidence survey, expecting a +97% reading, came in at 88.6%.
3. Some strategists see meaningful risk in the Middle East and China. In the former case, strained budgets will force risky expansions. In China’s case, a further crackdown on debt creation is expected.
4. The Biden administration relying on people for material economic expansion based on their Obama Presidency experience.

Subscribers, please remember the two iron clad rules of investing:

1. The only guaranteed product of the market is to create humility.
2. Surprises happen because most don’t expect them.  

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/searching-for-surprises-weekly-blog-659.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-investment-dilemma-with-possible.html

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

Surprises & Policies - Weekly Blog # 660

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Surprises & Policies

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                           

                     

Surprises

One of the most curious things about most humans is that they are surprised by surprises. Perhaps it is my Marine Corps training, being a student of history, or just having a contrarian streak, but I always expect surprises. Without knowing the details, I know that I will live and operate in periods of uncertainty. Below are two lists: Elements of uncertainties and reactions.

Surprises                        Reactions

Prices (Inflation)               Ignore (As long as Possible) 

Quality (Improvements?)          Go with the flow 

People (Unexpected behavior)     Resist

Taxes (Words worse than rates)   Attempt to escape

Current Surprises

My friend Byron Wein publishes a list of forthcoming surprises each year. Below are three surprises that are already known but not being considered by most investors and their advisors. Thus, their lack of reaction is the real surprise.

Rising Prices (Inflation)

For several weeks I have been noting the almost parabolic price increase in the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index. This week it reached +23.80% compared to a year ago. This phenomenon is supported by the mid December price of coiled sheet steel, which was $900/ton compared to $700/ton in mid-November. The price of Aluminum is nearing its two-year high. (With Coke Cola cutting the number of brands it sells in half, they are likely to try to pass on the increased costs of aluminum cans to consumers. An example of inflation at the supermarket level) In Asia there is a major shortage of shipping containers for exports. (I assume that means the rental price of shipping containers is up significantly.)

Many top-down thinkers in Washington and in the securities markets believe that central governments and their agencies can control their economies, exemplified by the following 2017 quote:

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? Probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be” 

This was said by Janet Yellen and I believe it was part of her effort to be reappointed Chair of the Federal Reserve. Let’s hope in her new post she has learned to have more respect for forces she does not control.

The third surprise is the not much discussed probable immunity to COVID-19 after receiving the vaccine. Because of the newness of our collective experiences, the most learned of medical experts say there may be a 5-7 month immunity. Let us hope they are being conservative; however, even doubling the initial estimate suggests a very different world than most are expecting.

I am not suggesting I can make intelligent guesses as to how these three surprises will work out, but I am noting that these along with other uncertainties need to be considered in making day-to-day investment and other decisions.

Where Are We?

Far too many military and business battles were lost when one of the combatants used out of date positioning. As I cannot avoid being a global consumer and investor, I must look at both the US and other markets for our clients. Because we invest in mutual funds for our clients, we pay a great deal of attention to their results. Again, somewhat surprising is that various market pundits seem to be unaware of two current relationships.

Each week I review fund performance for numerous periods, including the 1, 4, 13, 52-week and year-to-date period results, which are compared with various equity asset allocations. While the average S&P 500 index fund has produced positive results in each of those time periods, they have underperformed the average US Diversified Equity fund, the average Sector Equity fund, and the average World Equity fund. (This has not been the case for longer periods.)

What has caused this change? The data gives us a clue. The popular way to display results is asset weighted. We also review performance averages that are not asset weighted and include the median fund’s performance. What we discovered for large-cap, medium-cap, and small-caps is that larger funds are doing better than their peers in almost every period. Why is that? Larger funds tend to have lower costs and often have more aggressive portfolios. Advisors and salespeople find that performance momentum makes an easier sale than a belief in different leadership over the next market period, which is less risky due to current performance leaders often being more volatile.

Another example of it being beneficial to pay attention to size is in commodities. The number of contracts by large speculators, commercial hedgers, and small traders are tabulated each week and large speculators are often successful. In the latest week, the aggregate large speculator reduced very large long holdings, except for positions in gold, silver, T bonds, and the Yen. This seems to indicate that speculators are betting on non-currency related inflation. A few portfolio managers, while bullish on their stock portfolios for 2021, believe there could be as much as a 10% drop in their stock portfolios in the first part of the year. (This may be related to concerns over the new administration having difficulty getting their program started.)

US vs. the Rest of the World

Our economy and stock market structure are different than the Rest-Of-The World (ROW). The following tables highlight key differences:

        GDP % of World Trade      Market Cap % of World

China            19%                        9%

US               16%                       44%

ROW              51%                       30%

                           S&P 500     MSCI World

Information Technology        26%          21%

Financials                    10%          13%

The Wisdom of Charlie Munger

One of the highlights of Berkshire Hathaway’s (*) annual meeting are the brilliantly phrased but somewhat laconic comments to questions that Warren Buffett spends too much time discussing. Charlie, a student at Caltech while he was in the Army Air Force during WWII, sat for a zoom interview for Caltech Associates. The following is my edited review of his 22 comments. (I will be pleased to send his full comments if desired.)

(*) Position held in our private financial services fund and personal accounts.

Selectively edited comments as follows:

1. Avoid being stupid consistently rather than trying to be very intelligent.
2. Technology is a killer as well as an opportunity.
3. American companies are like biology, all individuals die as do all species, it is just a question of time.
4. I try to keep things as simple and fundamental as I can
5. A successful life requires experiencing some difficult things that go wrong.
6. We are in unchartered waters regarding the rate we are printing money.
7. “Who would have guessed a bunch of communist Chinese run by one party would have the best economic record the world has ever seen.”
8. “I don’t think Caltech can make great investors out of most people.” Great investors, like great chess players, are born to be in the game.
9. “You have to know a lot, but partly it’s temperament, deferred gratification (willingness to wait); a combination of patience and aggression. Know what you don’t know”
10. One needs to be fanatical to succeed.

Question: Which of Charlie’s statements do you agree or disagree with?    

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/searching-for-surprises-weekly-blog-659.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-investment-dilemma-with-possible.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings_29.html

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Searching for Surprises - Weekly Blog # 659

 Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Searching for Surprises

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                           

                        

Julius Caesar, in writing about his victory over the Gaul (now France), claimed he was never surprised as a military leader but spent three days burying his dead. To me, that is the definition of a painful surprise. One of the responsibilities of a prudent investment manager is to avoid as many meaningful surprises as possible. A meaningful surprise is one that prevents the accomplishment of a strategic goal.

To accomplish this goal, one should keep an eye on the significant changes to conditions of future battles that others are not anticipating. An aware investor probably anticipates more change than occurs. Also, some surprises won’t be anticipated, but will be helped by a quick reaction coming from being prepared for surprises. My attempt with this blog is to identify possible future surprises that will disrupt the return to the past “normal”.

Competition is Changing

There are two ways competition changes, through composition and conditions. In the investment arena we are seeing a number of old large investment groups acquiring mid-sized competitors, either through buying the whole company or a critical portion of it. These are different than in the past and are industry deals to pick up assets without keeping duplicate administration and marketing structure. Over the last couple of weeks we have seen two examples of non-standard bulking up of assets, where needed capabilities were believed to have been acquired. Morgan Stanley (*) acquired Eaton Vance (*) to broaden its distribution capabilities beyond its own largely wealth management force. In a somewhat similar fashion, the owner of the Delaware Funds (Australian money manager Macquarie Group) is buying the fund management assets of Waddell & Reed. The two acquisition targets have been in the fund business for many decades and are older than their larger acquirers. Competitors will now face a broader product line and an entrenched competitor in more distribution channels. These transactions are signaling that fund management peers should expect stiffer competition in the future, likely through fewer competitors. A sign of these concerns occurred last week when Jaime Dimon asked competitive investment bankers in an investors meeting to surface attractive M&A candidates to him for JP Moran Chase (*). One can see the urge to acquire is very high if the largest US bank in terms of assets, with its own investment banking group, asks for help with their own M&A.

(*) Mentioned securities are either owned in managed accounts or personally

There are some who believe the size of passively managed pools will be larger than actively managed pools by 2022. I hope that is true, nothing will be better for actively managed money than fewer competitors. Another way competition changes are when the rules of the game change. Nielson has indicated that in 2022 it will be able to track the inclusive viewing habits of television and much of social media, assisting national and local efforts to gather consumers and voters. Much of the success of E Commerce is based on its display and pull through the internet, while most “big box” stores rely more on television and print advertising. An advantage of older media was that it may have added credibility to the merchants and merchandise offered. To the extent that benefit still existed, I believe it was largely lost through the last presidential campaign as these mediums erroneously broadcast the belief of the great “blue wave” and other elements of questionable veracity. This has already contributed to the decline in the number of daily newspapers. While well managed Department stores will survive based on their merchandise skills, there will be fewer of them. While one can’t guess all the new regulations and fees/taxes that will be heaped on the distribution system, the safe bet is that it will be more expensive to distribute products and services in the future. If anything, the value of brands will likely be enhanced.

The Ticking Time Bomb of Inflation

Almost all engines have pressure release valves or mechanisms and this is equally true for human interactions and economics. When a pressure release mechanism is blocked, additional pressure is applied through other  releases. Major Central Banks, directed by their national governments, have successfully prevented interest rates on government bonds from registering the inflationary pressures that have been building in their economies. This pressure has been  reflected in both the world of commodities and currencies.

In the last couple of blogs I focused on the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index, which could be rising at close to a parabolic rate. This week on a year over year basis it is reading +19.65%!! This index is heavily influenced by the price of scrap metals, which are critical in the manufacture of steel and related products. Much of the demand is coming from Asia, particularly China. Large commodity speculators are significantly long almost all industrial and agricultural commodities, except for T Bonds and S&P Mini futures.

At some point in the not-too-distant future the size of the US government debt will prevent foreign buyers from buying US debt that pays less than the perceived inflation rate. Both residents of the White House and Congress in both parties have contributed to this explosion of interest rates. It will hurt the non-investment class most, as they can’t escape its effects through non-dollar sources of income and capital protection.

Investment Conclusion

Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) probably has the wisest recommendation, “Buy Prudence, sell exuberance”. Because of the rise in the number of IPOs and SPACS, exuberant speculation appears to already be present. I tend to believe that trading on the NASDAQ is savvier than on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The NASDAQ is more individual stock oriented than the NYSE, which is used extensively by index funds and subject to many more public investors. Last week the NASDAQ with only 16% more issues had 5 times more new lows than the NYSE. So be careful, remember the name of the game is the survival of your capital, as it periodically grows. 

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-investment-dilemma-with-possible.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings_29.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/approaching-multiple-turning-points.html

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.

An Investment Dilemma with a Possible Solution - Weekly Blog # 658

 

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

An Investment Dilemma with a Possible Solution

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018 –

                           

The Problem

Many of us have become addicted to the force of momentum in many aspects of our lives, including investments. We feel more secure in our judgements by going along with the crowd, particularly if we self-select the crowd, as there is an element of fear being outside the crowd. Is there something wrong with us?!

Current Situation

After record investment performance for many market indices and our own accounts in November, we believe that as owners of US stocks, not only are we bright but right. We hope the momentum will continue, for if we annualize the November gain our investment performance will generate an annual return of 100% or more. That is the problem, even if our egos question the probability of that happening.

Our Focus

Since there is so much investment momentum being celebrated by pundits and investors, subscribers don’t need any more “feel good” coverage, at least from me. Professor David Dodd hammered home the point that the entry price is the single most important factor in making a wise investment. That is the price relative to all the other factors. In a similar way, the most important lesson for betting at the racetrack is the spread between the betting odds and our perception of the future results at the finish line. In both cases there is a single underlying presumption, that on average the best company or horse may not be the best bet in terms of building capital. With that as a guiding principle, I offer up some contrarian inputs. I am not expecting to be instantly correct, but believe these views along with patience will produce sustainable capital for my investment responsibilities.

Contrarian Inputs

• The “Buffett Indicator is closing in on its former high of 187% vs its current reading of 180. (This is Warren Buffett’s most reliable indicator of a top and measures the aggregate market capitalization against GDP.) Due to the costs of the pandemic, the capacity level of the economy may be understated. It is fashionable for younger investors to discount the wisdom of Mr. Buffett, although the market has a habit of proving him right. Many doubted the wisdom of Berkshire’s private investment in Occidental Petroleum, although this week it was one of the best performing stocks, up +12.3%. (Berkshire Hathaway is a position in our financial services private fund and other accounts)
• This week’s reading of the CRB Raw Industrial Spot Price Index was up +15% year over year. The index is heavily weighted toward the price of scrap metal.  Not only in China but elsewhere, scrap is needed to produce completed metal products. (Despite Central Banks/National Governments putting a lid on government debt interest rates, I believe there is a reasonable chance of them doubling before the next US Presidential election, led by consumer purchases of both manufactured and agricultural goods.)
• Both individual and institutional investment accounts are shedding cash. (The tops of markets tend to coincide with the absence of fresh cash to keep upward momentum going.)
• There is a lot of wisdom in mutual fund investors, This may be particularly true with the existence of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) being used for shorter-term market judgements. This reinforces the belief that the bulk of money invested in mutual funds is long-term, slated for retirement and similar purposes to be used in the distant future. According to T. Rowe Price, the average 401(K) participant is investing 8% per year. (I suspect that other non-mutual fund investors are not similarly saving for their retirement and long-term needs.) 65.8% of all allocations in US mutual funds are invested in diversified equity funds, which have grown +12% vs the all equity fund return of +8.97% over the last ten years. (I do not expect diversified funds will grow at the same rate over the next ten years and can discuss that with you privately.) Mutual fund investors may have anticipated the current fall in the US dollar, which is discounting an apparently unfriendly new administration and open to better opportunities abroad. 26% of mutual fund investor assets are invested in world equity funds, which have the bulk of their investments in non-US listed companies. In addition, 17% of diversified funds are large-cap growth funds, which attribute much of their recent superior growth (+37.63% in the last 12 months) to investments in multinationals and foreign stocks. 
• Some portfolio managers are getting worried about the price of growth funds, demonstrated by the following quote from a Chinese portfolio manager in Singapore. “We believe the market is due for a meaningful correction as the pandemic worsens in the winter and fiscal stimulus may be slow and not generous. Valuation is also no longer as attractive, especially for growth stocks. We are selectively taking profits on some of our stocks and deploying the money into more decently valued stocks such as Chinese banks.”

Guidance 

I do not expect to pick the exact high in the US market, but I’m also extremely conscious that staying fully invested in well chosen funds and stocks has proven to be very beneficial in the long run. However, either due to extremely high prices, expensive stock acquisitions, or generous cash deals, accounts have somewhat involuntarily generated cash balances. Currently, my suggestion is to resist momentum by not reinvesting in the equity markets, as investors already have substantial amounts invested. When the lower-priced market almost certainly appears, it will be a good time to add to existing holdings or better investments.

Annual Market Research Visit to The Mall at Short Hills

My visit to a very high-end mall on a rainy Saturday, which later changed to a sunny day, brought out a medium-sized crowd. In some store’s, salespeople were waiting for walk-ins; however, at some high-end stores there were lines outside. There were still some vacant sites. Brooks Brothers had reopened, although it is still in bankruptcy and has some limits regarding merchandise. Shoppers at best we are carrying two medium size shopping bags. The best measure of the pulling power of brands were the three computer stores in the mall. Apple* had lines around the corner, Verizon with a smaller space had a few people waiting to be admitted, and AT&T had a large space with very few people inside. My conclusions: strong brands will have a reasonable to good Christmas season and some will scrape by on heavily discounted January sales, with a number of liquidations likely.   

* (Owned in personal accounts)

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings_29.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/approaching-multiple-turning-points.html

https://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2020/11/mike-lippers-monday-morning-musings_15.html

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Copyright © 2008 - 2020

A. Michael Lipper, CFA

All rights reserved

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.